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Thinking about my own in-depth research on Bitcoin over the past few years has been like a wonderful adventure, gradually discovering that Bitcoin is more like a mysterious realm woven with mathematics and statistics, with its patterns as captivating and confusing as the stars in the universe.
The causes of many of these patterns are shrouded in mist, and at first I was also skeptical, thinking they were just coincidences. But through my personal experiences these past few years, I have witnessed many patterns running like precise clocks.
Bitcoin has 224-day cycles and halving events in 2017, 2021, and 2024, with significant price fluctuations around these time points, which is a phenomenon I discussed in my video analysis last year. (Everyone can also open their own K-lines and compare the daily charts of these three years to see it clearly)
After careful verification, I found that the peaks occur every 224 days, and the next 224-day period corresponds to November 30th. This inevitably makes me wonder, will there be another magical moment: will Ethereum, like a heroic general, lead the Altcoin army to launch an attack, causing Bitcoin's market dominance to plummet rapidly?
Looking at the current market, this possibility is indeed not small. First, we have already entered the final approximately 10 months of this bull market cycle, which is like the climax of a grand performance, with the excitement about to unfold.
In this process, Bitcoin and Ethereum are like the two main characters on the stage, taking turns to show relative strength. Each role swap lasts about 4-7 weeks, and during this period, even the pullbacks are part of their performance. From now on, Ethereum has a good chance of overtaking Bitcoin, with the possibility of its gains exceeding Bitcoin's.
Moreover, in this final bull market frenzy, Bitcoin will not have smooth sailing, it will experience multiple 20%-30% pullbacks. Just like the calm period after a surge in emotions, the crazier it rises, the more frightening the pullbacks will be. Just like the current frenetic rise, a heart-pounding pullback may come soon.
In addition, almost all Altcoins (as long as they are not obscure coins) will have their own moment of glory.
Recently, Bitcoin's performance has been nothing short of crazy, with consecutive big gains triggering strong FOMO sentiment in the market. A few days ago, futures became the dominant force in the market, with funding rates soaring and premiums also rising sharply.
The logic behind this is that on the one hand, the expectation of interest rate cuts is a positive factor, and on the other hand, the news of Trump's return to power is a stimulus. At the beginning of this week, the news that MicroStrategy bought more than $2 billion worth of Bitcoin further fueled the fire, and the Bitcoin price even soared to around $90,000. This level is already close to 161.8%, and breaking the historical high seems easy.
However, here I solemnly remind all my friends, please don't get carried away by this frenzy and blindly chase the rising trend, the risk is extremely high. If a correction occurs, you can consider buying in batches for short and medium-term long positions.
Fans can refer to the article I wrote in March analyzing the pullback range, and currently 80K and 74K are important support levels. In the crypto world, we need to see the opportunities, but also maintain a clear mind at all times, so that we can win steadily in the changing tides.
Master Translator's Trend Outlook:
After testing $90,000, Bitcoin formed a Double Top pattern and re-entered the adjustment range. Currently, it is fluctuating within a trading range after the uptrend, and since the uptrend is still maintained, the expectation of a rebound can be kept.
The stronger-than-expected Trump scenario is currently bringing continuous inflows of funds to the market, and as long as it does not fall below the bottom of the trading range, the expectation of a rebound can be maintained.
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: $88,600
Second Resistance: $90,000
Support Levels:
First Support: $87,000
Second Support: $86,400
Today's Suggestions:
Currently, Bitcoin must break through the new high during the day to expect further upside. At this stage where the $90,000 level has been tested twice without success, if the rebound fails to refresh the high, attention should be paid to the selling pressure caused by disappointment in the re-test.
If it falls below the second support, the probability of price adjustment to the EMA60 will increase. Since it is still within the trading range, you can try to find long opportunities in the pullback area.
11.13 Master Translator's Swing Trading Placements:
Long Entry Reference: Based on the 4-hour EMA25, reference the 83,400-84,000 area for long, Target: 86,400
Short Entry Reference: 87,000-87,500 area for light short, Target: 86,400-86,000
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