In 2024, the Non-Fungible Token (NFT) market faced an unexpected decline, revealing challenging models as this once-booming industry struggled to maintain its growth momentum.
A recent study by NFTEvening and Storible, analyzing the performance of 29,079 new NFT collections, has revealed a notable reality. The results show that most NFT releases this year have failed to find lasting value or engagement.
Elusive Profits, Most Drops Decline
Using data from dune analytics and OpenSea, the NFTEvening and Storible research focused on collections launched from January to August 2024. The study confirmed the findings using OpenSea's API and analyzed key metrics such as minting and trading volume, price fluctuations, and transaction activity to assess the overall health of the market.
According to the research, nearly 98% of the NFT projects from 2024 have now "died." This means they have seen little to no trading activity since September. The high failure rate indicates that most new projects lost relevance shortly after launch, suggesting a saturated market.
Furthermore, only 0.2% of the 2024 NFT releases have generated profits for individual investors. Even among the "living" NFTs with some trading activity, only 11.9% are profitable. This reflects the challenges creators face in delivering investment returns in the current environment.
While many new collections have emerged, the report also found that over 64% of the 2024 NFT releases were recorded in less than 10 minutes. This result suggests difficulty in attracting initial buyers. Additionally, 98% of these projects saw fewer than 10 transactions in the first week, indicating a lack of market interest and investor confidence.
Another finding from the study is that 98% of the 2024 releases have seen their prices drop at least 50% within three days of launch. This rapid devaluation highlights the swift decline in buyer enthusiasm. It also suggests the NFT market may no longer support the speculative trading it once did.
The state of 2024 NFT drops. Source: NFTEveningThere is also limited growth potential, with around 84% of these projects reaching their ATH at their minting price. This means they have not increased in value. The lack of price appreciation reflects a widespread cooling of sentiment in a market once thriving on speculation and high liquidation.
These findings reflect the significant barriers the market faces as it is inundated with new collections, each competing for a limited pool of active buyers.
Saturation, Lack of Interest, and the Future Path for NFT Creators
A key point from the report is the saturation of the 2024 NFT market. With an average of 3,635 new NFT collections created monthly, the supply has far outpaced demand. This makes it increasingly difficult for new projects to capture attention. The sharp declines in minting and trading activity suggest a growing disconnect between creators and collectors, raising questions about the sustainability of an oversaturated market.
Alongside the NFTEvening report, BeInCrypto has recently published findings consistent with the issue of saturation. It has highlighted the "project death" phenomenon, indicating a similar trend where a large number of NFTs fail to maintain relevance or trading volume after launch. This suggests the market has become flooded with projects unable to deliver long-term value. The stark contrast between successful and failed collections, as well as the varying project lifespans, shows the NFT market is no longer the "golden goose" it once was.
As the NFT market becomes more challenging, creators and project teams face a crossroads. To survive, projects must offer more than just collectible items. Building a sustainable, engaged community, providing real utility, and nurturing long-term value have become essential to stand out. As the trend of rapid releases and "flip" culture loses its appeal, a shift towards community-driven and utility-based NFTs may become the new standard.
Meanwhile, individual investors need to exercise caution and conduct thorough due diligence to avoid losses in a market where profitability is increasingly elusive.
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