Author: Ray's New World, BlockBeats
GSR research analyst Toe Bautista said after Trump's victory in the US election that many project parties have been waiting for the right moment, observing the situation of other token issuances and election results. He also believes that if the macroeconomic conditions remain favorable, the price of Bitcoin may continue to rise. "It's easy to see Bitcoin reaching $90,000, whether it's Q1 next year or the end of the month."
After Trump was elected President of the United States, everyone was expecting BTC to break through $90,000 quickly, but this $90,000 did indeed come much faster than expected.
Has the "crazy bull market" returned, and what other concerns are there for the future?
Micro Strategy Holdings
As a company that holds a large amount of BTC, MicroStrategy currently holds a total of 252,220 bitcoins, with a total purchase cost of approximately $9.9 billion and an average purchase price of approximately $39,266 per bitcoin. The current total value of the bitcoin holdings is $20.177 billion.
ETF Inflows
ETFs were highly anticipated when they first launched, mainly due to the large influx of new capital, which also set new highs for the Bitcoin price. However, the total assets of the ETFs soon began to see net outflows, and the market sentiment also began to decline. But recently, BTC ETFs have continued to see large inflows of capital, with the total inflows of the top 10 ETFs increasing continuously over the past 7 days.
Not only has the daily net inflow of funds reached a new high, but the holdings have also reached a new high. The logic is also very clear, with Trump taking office, there is likely to be a "crypto-dollar", and the political force in the US supporting crypto will become stronger and stronger. For traditional financial "big players", their likelihood of allocating capital to crypto may increase, and BTC ETFs have become the most convenient channel for investing in crypto, and for other US stock investors, BTC ETFs will also become very attractive under Trump's endorsement.
Interest Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, significantly exceeding expectations, and Bitcoin also surged in response. The November policy meeting also decided on a 25 basis point rate cut, which the market generally understood as a positive factor, after all, the starting point of the last bull market was the rate cut in March 2020.
CPI
Tonight at 9:30 pm, the US released its CPI data, which was generally in line with market expectations. The US stock market had a relatively small reaction to the CPI data, and Bitcoin began to rise and broke through the $90,000 mark, with the market's expectations for the CPI data returning to rationality. Overall, the CPI data has little impact on the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy such as interest rate cuts.
November Historical Data
In addition to the data, there is also a sense of ritual.
According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin's investment returns in the fourth quarter after the halving in 2012, 2016 and 2020 were all good, at 97.7%, 58.17% and 168.02% respectively. Among them, the return rate in November 2016 was 5.42%, and the return rate in November 2020 was 42.95%, and the return rate this month is still worth looking forward to.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin rose 7.35% in September this year, setting a historical best performance, and Bitcoin has always been able to rise to the end of the year whenever it rose in September historically.
After the dawn, history will come.
The Future Trend of Bitcoin, How Do Traders See It?
PlanB: BTC May Reach $1 Million by the End of 2025
PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, and enjoys a high reputation in the crypto industry for his unique asset scarcity and price relationship model. His analysis focuses on the growth potential of Bitcoin's long-term value, especially the price fluctuations after the halving event. His latest forecast points out that if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, the Bitcoin market may experience an unprecedented price surge. PlanB has constructed a series of monthly timelines to demonstrate the price development of Bitcoin under different market scenarios.
In his forecast a few months ago, PlanB gave specific figures based on his S2F model:
November: If Trump wins the election, Bitcoin price will reach $100,000. PlanB believes that Trump's victory will mark a major turning point for Bitcoin. He points out that Trump's presidency may bring friendly policies towards cryptocurrencies, ending the "war" on cryptocurrencies by the Biden/Harris administration, especially the policy constraints on regulatory officials like Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren, which will directly drive Bitcoin's price to $100,000.
December: With massive ETF inflows, Bitcoin will soar to $150,000. PlanB believes that Trump's victory will clear the way for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, and expects a large amount of capital to flow into the market. The inflow of ETFs represents the acceptance and recognition of the mainstream financial market and the trust of investors, further pushing Bitcoin's price to $150,000.
January 2025: As the crypto industry returns to the US, Bitcoin will rise to $200,000. With the open crypto policy of the Trump administration, a large number of crypto companies and investors may bring their business back to the US. PlanB expects this to have a significant market demand effect, pushing Bitcoin's price to $200,000.
February 2025: The "Power Law" team takes profits, and the price falls back to $150,000. The correction in February is a prediction of the adjustment in the Bitcoin market. PlanB believes that the profit-taking of investors will lead to a short-term pullback of Bitcoin to $150,000 after reaching a high. However, this adjustment will be temporary and necessary, laying a more stable foundation for the next stage of the rise.
March to May 2025: Bitcoin's globalization trend, price breaks through $500,000. Starting in March, PlanB expects countries like Bhutan, Argentina, and Dubai to successively adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, and in April, the US will also launch a Bitcoin strategic reserve under Trump's push. Subsequently, in May, he believes other countries, especially non-EU countries, will join this wave, further pushing Bitcoin to $500,000.
June 2025: AI boosts the price to $600,000. In June, PlanB proposed the hypothesis that artificial intelligence will start to autonomously participate in Bitcoin market arbitrage. He expects that with the participation of AI in the Bitcoin market, this high-frequency trading will further drive the price increase, pushing Bitcoin to break through $600,000.
July to December 2025: FOMO subsides, price reaches $1 million. In the following months, PlanB believes that the market's FOMO sentiment will begin to subside, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $1 million by the end of the year. By then, Bitcoin will not only become a mainstream asset reserve, but also a must-have allocation for global investors.
2026-2027: Market adjustment and bear market. In 2026, PlanB expects Bitcoin's price to correct from $1 million to $500,000, entering a distribution phase, and by 2027, the market will enter a bear market, with Bitcoin's price expected to drop to $200,000.
PlanB summarized that the key to this forecast is the scarcity value of Bitcoin. He points out that scarcity will become the core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold. PlanB believes that in the next 18 months, Bitcoin's price is expected to experience a leap-like growth driven by the halving effect and market demand, further consolidating its position as "digital gold" among global investors.
The key to PlanB's prediction lies in the scarcity value of Bitcoin. He points out that investors like scarcity, and now there are basically 3 choices for scarcity: real estate (S2F 100, market cap $10 trillion), gold (S2F 60, market cap $20 trillion), or Bitcoin (S2F 120, market cap $1 trillion). Therefore, the scarcity of Bitcoin will become the core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold.
PlanB presents the opposite scenario, that is, if Harris wins, he believes this will represent the "end of Western civilization" and will continue to exacerbate the decline of the American empire. He expects the cryptocurrency industry to come under further pressure under the regulation of Gensler and Warren, with more stifling actions, and even possibly facing harsher tax policies, such as the introduction of unrealized capital gains tax. However, he also emphasizes that Bitcoin does not depend on a specific regulatory environment, and its value driver will still come from the global demand for scarcity.
Alex Krüger: BTC spot as the main focus on election night
Argentine economist, trader and consultant Alex Krüger believes that the election result will directly affect the direction of Bitcoin prices:
Trump wins: Bitcoin's year-end target price is $90,000. Krüger believes that if Trump wins, Bitcoin prices will quickly surge to $90,000 by the end of the year, with a 55% probability of realization. In this scenario, he predicts that Bitcoin prices will "surge rapidly" because the market has already partially anticipated the positive impact of Trump's victory on cryptocurrencies. However, there is still a certain degree of price underestimation, and the market's rapid response will be reflected shortly after the news is confirmed.
The Giver: Decline in the mid-term after the election
The Giver is an anonymous veteran investor with extensive experience in both buy-side and sell-side financial institutions. He is currently engaged in special situation private equity investments, providing a different perspective. Compared to Krüger and PlanB, The Giver's strategy is more conservative and focused on the short-term, as he believes the Bitcoin rally driven by the election is more of a temporary phenomenon rather than a long-term trend. This view particularly emphasizes the driving effect of market liquidity and short-term events, and points out that Bitcoin may face a downward adjustment after the election.
The driving force behind this Bitcoin rally is the "non-sticky" buyers driven by event-driven, i.e. some short-term speculators seeking to hedge election risks, rather than an overall trend. These buyers will not hold Bitcoin for the long-term, and once the election dust settles, they may quickly exit the market. Therefore, these funds lack "stickiness" and may face selling pressure on Bitcoin prices after the election.
The lackluster performance of Altcoins is related to the concentration of Bitcoin. In his view, the inflow of funds is mainly concentrated on Bitcoin, and has not widely flowed into Altcoins, leading to the poor performance of Altcoins. This indicates that the current capital flow is more based on Bitcoin as a hedging tool, rather than a positive outlook on the entire cryptocurrency market.
The Giver expects that in the coming week, Bitcoin's open interest and positions will continue to be crowded, even reaching new highs. He points out that this "right-side effect" may lead to a short-term surge in Bitcoin prices, but due to the limited market capacity in Q4 2024, it is unlikely to continue into the next year. This short-term effect increases the possibility that Bitcoin prices will peak before the election, but the speculative liquidity behind it is not sufficient to support a long-term bull market.
Based on this judgment, The Giver offers a relatively aggressive investment strategy: based on the current market environment, he suggests going long on Bitcoin and short on other major coins and Altcoins. Bitcoin will test $70,000 before the election day, but will experience a mid-term decline regardless of who wins.
Markus: Hedging strategy of going long BTC and short SOL
Markus Thielen is a well-known analyst at Matrixport and 10X Research, who gained a lot of attention in the investment community a few months ago for his accurate prediction of Bitcoin's $1 trillion market cap.
Markus' latest analysis is based on the latest signal model of 10X Research, which has a hit rate of 73% to 87%, usually realized within 2 weeks to 9 months. He predicts that if Bitcoin's price continues to develop along the historical trend, it may increase by 8% in the next two weeks, 13% in one month, 26% in two months, and 40% in three months. Based on this calculation, Bitcoin's price may break through $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach the target of around $140,000 by April 29, 2025.
Regarding the election results, Markus analyzed the impact of different election results on Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Markus predicts that after Trump takes office, Bitcoin may rise by 5%, and Solana and Ethereum may also see similar gains. He believes that Trump's victory will lead to a more crypto-friendly policy environment, which is expected to drive the market upward.
In this scenario, Markus recommends the strategy of "going long on Bitcoin and short on Solana" to hedge the uncertainty brought by the election. However, Markus also pointed out that if the election results are delayed or disputed, this will increase market uncertainty and may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin.
In the event of disputed election results or a Harris victory leading to a short-term decline in Bitcoin, Markus emphasizes that Bitcoin may still show strong resilience, and therefore advises investors to seize the buying window after Bitcoin's short-term decline.
From the perspective of the derivatives market and on-chain data, the total amount of Bitcoin held by short-term holders has increased in October, while the amount held by long-term holders has decreased, which is a dynamic that usually occurs at important price breakout levels. The total open interest of Bitcoin options contracts has soared to $22.5 billion by 2024, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market for Bitcoin.
Thielen also pays special attention to the impact of MicroStrategy's stock performance on Bitcoin prices. He points out that MicroStrategy's stock price has risen by 33% since October, and the surge in its stock price has had a "coattail effect" on Bitcoin prices. The covering of a large number of short positions has further boosted the market's bullish sentiment on Bitcoin.
Standard Chartered analyst: If Trump wins, BTC will rise to $125,000 by the end of the year
According to a report by Cointelegraph on October 25, Standard Chartered bank analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that if Trump wins the November election, Bitcoin's price could rise to $125,000 by the end of the year.
Kendrick's model shows that on election day (November 5), Bitcoin could stabilize around $73,000. In the event of a Trump victory, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to immediately rise by about 4%, and then another 10% in the following days, with the rise in market confidence and a more relaxed regulatory environment being the main driving forces.
Meanwhile, a research report from another broker, Bernstein, points out that if Trump wins the U.S. election in November, Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high later this year, with the price potentially reaching $90,000 in the fourth quarter. In contrast, if Harris wins, the market may expect increased regulation, and BTC prices may fluctuate in the range of $30,000 to $40,000.
What we can currently foresee is that BTC has already broken through the ATH, and its future price uptrend has no so-called "pressure points" from a technical perspective. BTC has not let down any spot holders, but there are still about two months before Trump officially takes office, will this "narrative vacuum" period see new narratives leading to further upside, and will Trump deliver on his previous promises after taking office? Let's wait and see.
