Overnight, BTC continued to saw around $90,000. Previously, the surge from $70,000 to $90,000 was too rapid and intense, so it needs to take a break here, repeatedly fake falls, pierce the moving average support, and wash out the weak bulls. Are you hoping for $100,000? The more anxious and impatient you are, the more the market will not go up, just hovering below $100,000, constantly teasing, playing a game of feigning weakness.
The market has tortured me countless times, and I treat the market like my first love.
There is a very strange phenomenon, that is, the new crypto investors who enter the bull market mostly like to leverage trade contracts. When asked carefully, they are really "trading" contracts, that is, opening long or short positions naked. They don't even know what the contracts were originally invented to solve. It was originally a risk hedging tool to control risk, but it has been turned into a risk amplification tool.
There is a cold joke, with few words and only six words: There are no veteran contract traders.
The market is always like a first love, and contract traders are always novices.
There are veteran traders in the market, and there are also contract traders, but there are no veteran contract traders.
Just as there are experienced drivers on the road, and there are also speeding drivers, but there are no veteran speeding drivers.
The difficulty of not losing money in contract trading is greater than gambling. The probability of getting rich by trading meme coins is lower than buying lottery tickets. But there is an inherent defect in human cognition of low-probability events, coupled with some conscious or unconscious incitement, so they rush to their doom like moths to a flame.
Crypto trading is not investing. Why? The essence of investing is to let your assets work for you while you rest. But crypto trading is staring at all kinds of news all day long, constantly worrying about price fluctuations, and immediately logging in to operate when the market situation changes, constantly racking your brains with various calculations. This is you working for your positions, or even working for the scythe, and it is a risky, bankrupt, unprotected, and hand-to-mouth slave labor.
If you have the ability to withstand this risk, go start a business, the probability of making money will be even greater. With such a desperate spirit, just find a job and tighten a screw, the money you earn will be more secure.
Since it's all about working, then it's still "earning" money. Small money relies on "earning", big money relies on "finding". Only knowing how to "earn" money, not understanding how to "find" money, even if you are busy all day long, it will still be difficult to really make a lot of money.
A wealthy man once said that earning a little money, everyone can do it with effort, but to make a lot of money, you still need luck.
Fatalism is of course the rhetoric of those who have boarded the car and welded the car door. The meaning of "finding" money does not mean that it is all about luck. The key is not to be obsessed with tactical diligence, but to neglect the insight and grasp of the laws of value movement.
Cycle is a form of external manifestation of value movement.
Know the bull and bear, see the rise and fall.
Accumulate in the bear market. The best time to buy assets is when others are forced to sell due to the price drop.
As long as you buy assets in the bear market and give your positions some patience over time, the assets will start to automatically make money for you.
There are many reasons that hinder the completion of accumulation in the bear market, but fundamentally there are two main reasons: one is that there is no money left, which is due to the lack of material preparation; the other is that there is no hope left, which is due to the lack of psychological preparation.
It is wise to always keep a reserve fund. It can give you the courage to buy on dips when the bear market is at its lowest point, when cash flow is cut off, assets are shrinking, and the overall environment is gloomy.
Earn money in the bull market. The best time to earn money, when there are the most opportunities, is during the bull market when liquidity is abundant.
The meaning of "earning money" refers to actually earning money. The money earned is safe and sound.
The main reason why a bull market fails to earn money is that you start to accumulate assets in the bull market, and then hold them until the end of the bull market when the asset prices collapse.
Often, even if you have the determination and will to go through the bull and bear markets, the asset you hold may not have the ability to go through the bull and bear markets.
Don't think that's BTC.
At the peak of the bull market, when the overall environment has abundant liquidity and your own cash flow is also abundant, asset prices soar, and the outlook is bright and promising. Overcoming greed, holding cash, and waiting for the bear market requires extremely strong patience.
Two months ago, PlanB gave a forecast. Currently, the first two conditions seem to be about 80-90% accurate:
The first condition is that by October, BTC will surge to $70,000. In fact, the official breakthrough of $70,000 should be counted as November 6th.
The second condition is that by November, Trump will win the election, the crypto industry will be liberated, and BTC will surge to $100,000. In reality, Trump achieved an overwhelming victory in the election, and BTC has so far reached a high of $93,000 on November 14th, just $7,000 away from $100,000.
The power law low trajectory in 2026 is $70,000. After this bull market, there may never be another opportunity to accumulate at a lower cost. This also means that positions with costs lower than this may be relatively safe.
For those starting from scratch to build a BTC position, the risk will vary greatly depending on the entry stage and the accumulation strategy. In brief, it is roughly as follows:
Bull market startup stage (decisive right-side breakout signal): Lump sum buy: medium risk. Eight-character strategy: high risk. (Faster)
Bull market peak stage (free will): Lump sum: high risk. Eight-character: medium risk. (Slower)
Bear market stage (decisive right-side breakdown signal): Lump sum: medium risk. Eight-character: low risk. (Slower)
Bear market bottom recovery stage (free will): Lump sum: low risk. Eight-character: low risk. (Faster)
Remember, the bull market is the beginning of losing money. The way to lose money is to over-buy overpriced bubble assets and refuse to exit due to greed.
Therefore, the key is to do the opposite. To make money, don't lose money.
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