Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
In the past few days, I've seen a rather interesting comparative perspective, with someone saying: This cycle's BTC is the new gold, SOL is the new ETH, and ETH has become a new ATOM. This perspective is likely representative of the views of many people. With BTC continuing to set new historical highs this month, and SOL maintaining its heat under the MEME coin craze, the performance of ETH seems to have left many unsatisfied.
Recently, there have been many messages in the background asking about Altcoin prices, and some friends have even repeatedly left messages in the public account background asking me: How high can the price of ETH reach by the end of the year? What Altcoin can I buy now to make 10 times the profit by the end of the year?
For questions like the ones above, I basically won't respond. To be honest, if I could accurately know what Altcoin to buy now to easily make 10 times the profit by the end of the year, wouldn't I just All In and buy it myself? Why would I tell you? On the investment path, when you build your dream of making money (or getting rich) solely on the hope of relying on others (who are still strangers to you), you are actually on the path to losing money. In my understanding, it is impossible to habitually reach out to others for a simple conclusion in the hope of achieving long-term investment success.
Moreover, I have a little habit in responding to messages in the background, which is to look at the number of likes/views/appreciations of the historical articles by the concerned users. If these numbers are all zero, I basically won't respond, unless the other party asks a fairly targeted question, because everyone's time and energy are limited, and the input is mutual. Also, many of my opinions and views are already reflected in the historical articles, so you can go search or review the historical articles to find the content you need.
As I mentioned in a previous article: We should all learn to use the right questioning posture, don't be a beggar, and don't ask some general questions that you can answer in five seconds, but the other party has to spend ten minutes or more to answer (such as: what do you think about..., how do you see..., etc.). The reason is simple, whether others are willing to help you with a simple gesture depends on your attitude, and whether you think from the other party's perspective.
As for those who leave messages in the background to vent or swear, I won't bother with them either. Many times, we need to reflect on ourselves, rather than just randomly target others, or complain that the market or society doesn't give you a chance.
Perhaps some bloggers will value things like private domain traffic (such as adding as many people as possible to WeChat) or personal fame (becoming a KOL), and you can assume that you are their customers or gods, but these are not important to me. Moreover, there are now many crypto bloggers on the internet, and everyone has very large choices in terms of focus and options, if you like the articles, just follow, if you don't like them, just don't follow, it's really that simple.
Of course, the current mentality of some people is a bit restless, which I can also understand. After all, during the bull market, seeing others make money or get rich overnight, while your own Altcoins are not making money (or even losing money), they will indeed feel quite depressed. This depression can directly lead to two results:
One is to complain and swear every day
The other is to review and reflect on oneself
Many times, making mistakes is not terrible, the most terrible thing is to make mistakes and not know it. In this field, I have also made many mistakes myself, and have lost a lot of money a few times, but fortunately I later conducted serious review and reflection, and even now, I still insist on recording more than 10,000 words of notes every week for learning and thinking.
I remember that some friends in the group said I was a person with willpower, but perhaps only I know that this willpower is more based on my continuous learning and thinking. As I mentioned in a previous article: The logic of many things is not complicated, but you need to overcome the fear of difficulty and laziness. If you don't have a basic knowledge foundation, when you encounter market fluctuations, your brain will have no willpower to stick to it, which is essentially the same as practicing basic skills and muscle training when boxing.
I've said so much because the background messages have started to increase again recently, making me have a little feeling again. But some people may complain that I'm talking nonsense when they see this, yes, this is the advantage and disadvantage of self-media - the advantage is that I'm free to say what I want (of course I won't discuss sensitive topics), the disadvantage is that you may waste time reading my words. If you have read more than 500 articles of Talk Li Talk Outside and still think it's useless to you, then I suggest you unfollow immediately, as this may be good for you.
Next, let's continue to talk about the Altcoin topic.
Currently, the overall Altcoin market has not seen much of a big rise, which may be mainly due to the following aspects:
- BTC continues to dominate
Currently, BTC.D has reached around 61.5%, a new high in the past three years, as shown in the figure below.
As long as the price of BTC continues to break new highs, the majority of market liquidity will be concentrated on Bitcoin, and the Altcoins will naturally not see much of a rise.
- MEME coins continue to absorb liquidity
Although MEME coins have seen some pullback in the past few days, this does not affect the fact that MEME coins are absorbing the remaining market liquidity. Many people have now completely abandoned the so-called fundamental analysis, and no longer pay attention to the so-called value Altcoins, but have fully FOMO'd into MEME coins, which will also lead to the overall poor performance of Altcoins.
- ETH is in a state of isolation
Bitcoin is continuing to set new highs, but ETH seems to be unmoved, completely indifferent to the market's voice, and many of the friends who previously switched from BTC to ETH have now slapped their thighs. As the king of Altcoins, as long as ETH doesn't move (no major fluctuations), most Altcoins will also be stuck in waiting.
When Bitcoin goes up, Altcoins don't dare to move, when Bitcoin goes down, Altcoins have to follow the decline, if the king of Altcoins (ETH) doesn't move, it will be difficult for those Altcoin minions.
Solana, accompanied by a bunch of meme minions, is watching the fun and saying: Look at that person, how strange, like a dog.
Ethereum is quietly stepping in place, not looking back.
If we continue to think further from the above three angles, we can easily understand that if the Altcoin market as a whole wants to see a new round of upward momentum, it needs:
- Wait for BTC's trend to stabilize
Once Bitcoin enters a new consolidation phase, some liquidity in the market may come out to look for new opportunities, and this is when those Altcoins with relatively good fundamentals or those previously undervalued Altcoins may become the new focus of capital speculation.
- Wait for the MEME coin hype to subside
MemeCoin, as a purely speculative and even gambling-like target, cannot be continuously hyped. Once the narrative heat of MemeCoin begins to decline (which is often the stage when retail investors are most FOMO), the profit-taking pool may quickly withdraw, and these funds will re-enter the so-called value Altcoins for speculation.
- Wait for the death of ETH Altcoins to wake up
Although ETH's current performance has left many dissatisfied, personally, I am still more optimistic about the development of Ethereum, after all, ETH is now the only Altcoin that has been approved through an ETF. Until BTC's trend stabilizes and the heat of MemeCoin begins to decline, ETH may only then welcome its true performance. It is expected that at that time, a large amount of liquidity will begin to flow back into its ecosystem (DeFi, L2, etc. will also benefit).
Of course, the above is just a conceptual analysis, and no one knows how much ETH will rise or which Altcoins will be able to take off again.
In addition, when it comes to Altcoins, many people will think of VC coins, especially those with low circulation and high FDV project tokens. Because of the previous baptism, many retail investors now shudder at the mention of VC, wishing to stay far away from these projects. But how to say, maybe we can think from the other side, do those VCs give up so easily?
Or, maybe the VCs are just waiting for new opportunities, they are always ahead of the people, and perhaps they are brewing new hype or fabricating new stories. If the market changes later, we will see some things that can re-ignite people's FOMO. For example, the recent hot concept of DeSci has directly driven multiple related token sectors to create historical highs, which is a typical example of hype.
And the current stage where almost everyone is pessimistic about Ethereum and Altcoins is often the best stage for phased research. If you still think there will be a new round of opportunities for Altcoins this year or next, then you should now spend more effort on some digging work, such as focusing on the hype points that VCs may use, such as staking, interoperability, DeFi3.0, etc. At the same time, you should also pay attention to on-chain data changes, such as changes in TVL growth, user scale growth, etc. If you have more time and energy, you can even follow the Official Twitter of VCs or projects, and closely follow their dynamics; or follow the Twitter of celebrities/opinion leaders, if they have started to post or retweet some project topics, it may indicate that those projects have already started to execute some potential plans.
In short, if we compare the market to a wolf, then the retail investors are the sheep that may be eaten by the wolf at any time. When running, the sheep should try to run in front of other sheep, rather than trying to outrun the wolf.
Note: The above content is just a personal perspective and analysis, and is only for learning and exchange, and does not constitute any investment advice. Any projects or websites mentioned in the article are also not directly related to the author (the author does not accept any advertising from project parties), please evaluate the security of the corresponding projects or websites yourself. Investment always has risks, don't get into what you don't understand, and don't play what you can't afford to lose.
