Public account: Lazy King Squirrel
Bitcoin broke through $97,000 strongly at noon today, reaching a record high of $97,850 before the deadline, up 5.58% in the last 24 hours.
Against this backdrop, TradingView data shows that Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) has soared to 61.61%, a new high since March 2021. It still has the momentum to continue rising, indicating that the cryptocurrency market is currently centered on the rise of Bitcoin.
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When will the Altcoin season arrive?
In the cryptocurrency market, when Bitcoin is leading the rally alone, it often means that the market is still in the early stage, and the Altcoin season has not yet officially arrived. According to the historical cycle pattern, after Bitcoin's lead, market funds will gradually flow to other mainstream coins (such as ETH, SOL, etc.) and small-cap tokens (Altcoins), eventually forming a full-blown "Altcoin season".
In this process, BTC.D is an important indicator to observe the rotation of market funds. Although the price of Bitcoin may continue to rise, the increase will gradually be surpassed by other currencies, causing BTC.D to fall back from the high level. Especially when BTC.D starts to drop sharply from the high point, it usually means that market funds are flowing into Altcoins, which is an important signal for the start of the Altcoin season.
BTC.D reveals market rotation
Through the analysis of historical data, we can better understand the key levels of BTC.D and their correspondence with the market cycle. The following are the BTC.D levels when three major Altcoins reached their historical highs according to CoinGecko data:
- SOL: 9.9% away from the historical high of $259.96 on 2021/11/6, the BTC.D was around 43% at that time.
- XRP: 67.4% away from the historical high of $3.4 on 2018/01/07, the BTC.D was around 40% at that time.
- ADA: 74.6% away from the historical high of $3.09 on 2021/09/02, the BTC.D was around 41% at that time.
Although the time points when these tokens reached their historical highs are different, their common feature is: BTC.D was around 40%. This ratio is also the low point of BTC.D in the 2021 bull market, while in the bull market at the end of 2017, BTC.D even dropped to around 30%.
Therefore, when BTC.D falls below 50% (indicating that Bitcoin is no longer the sole leader), and further declines to the 40% level, this period may be the golden time for the Altcoin season. Based on historical experience, this is the best time to capture the surge of Altcoins.
Will the MEME season replace the Altcoin season?
However, I believe everyone has felt the difference between this bull market and the previous one, where Ethereum no longer leads other mainstream coins, and MEME coins are blooming everywhere. Therefore, "MEME cult leader" Murad Mahmudov recently shared the image on the left, indicating that the MEME season in this cycle is the long-awaited new Altcoin season:
Bitcoin leading => SOL catching up => DOGE rising, driving large-cap MEME coins => MEME season fully erupting
But of course, I believe Ethereum investors will still insist on the image on the right, that everything will eventually come back to Ethereum. How will it end? What do you believe? Block will continue to track and report on this.
