While various market data have reached new highs, market sentiment remains optimistic.
Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
Bitcoin has not broken through the $100,000 psychological barrier as the market had hoped. On November 23, it reached a high of $99,588 before turning downward. BTC fell to around $92,300 at its lowest. Ethereum fell from $3,546 to around $3,300, and SOL also fell to around $230 at one point.
In terms of contract data, Coinglass shows that $528 million was liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with $386 million in long positions being liquidated.
Why is the selling pressure preventing BTC from breaking through the $100,000 psychological barrier? Glassnode data shows that long-term BTC holders are selling at a rate of 366,000 BTC per month, the highest level since April 2024, as they gradually take profits.
After the big BTC correction, will there be a continuous downward trend, or will it make another attempt to break $100,000 after a brief pause? As the market is skeptical, let's review 5 key data points to get to the bottom of it.
Bitcoin Spot ETF Data Remains Quite Strong
From early November to now, Bitcoin spot ETF data has only seen 5 days of declines, with 11 days of net inflows, and the average daily net inflow exceeding $600 million.
The total inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs has now reached $30.16 billion, and the total trading volume yesterday was as high as $5.61 billion.
Total Stablecoin Market Cap Hits New High
According to the latest data from defillama, the total stablecoin market cap has reached a new high of $189.91 billion, with a 7-day increase of 3.28%. USDT's monthly increase was 10.77%, USDC's was 12.59%, and USDe's was as high as 48.63%.
Specifically, USDT's market cap has increased from $120.4 billion at the beginning of the month to $132.5 billion, an inflow of $12.1 billion.
USDC's market cap has increased from $34.7 billion at the beginning of the month to $39 billion, an inflow of about $4.3 billion. USDC's all-time high market cap was $55.8 billion in June 2022, which it has not yet reached.
Crypto Market Cap Exceeds $3.2 Trillion, Reaching a New High
In the previous crypto cycle, the industry's market cap reached a historical peak of $2.86 trillion in November 2021. This month, as the crypto market sentiment has improved, the market cap has broken through $3 trillion and continued to rise to over $3.2 trillion, with a total trading volume of $242.14 billion.
ETH/BTC Ratio Rises to 0.0362
Bitcoin's market dominance, which once exceeded 60%, has since fallen below 58%, as the market caps of Ethereum and Altcoins have started to slowly rise. The ETH/BTC ratio has risen from the historical low of 0.03187 to 0.0362. Ethereum ecosystem projects have performed strongly during this Bitcoin correction, with ARB/BTC falling slightly from 0.00001 to 0.0000946, OP/BTC falling from 0.00002537 to 0.00002398, LDO/BTC falling from 0.00001875 to 0.00001743, and ETHFI/BTC falling from 0.00002444 to 0.00002237.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Futures Open Interest Reach New Highs
Today, the Ethereum futures open interest has surpassed $21.508 billion, setting a new record high, with a 24-hour increase approaching 6%.
On November 22, the Bitcoin futures open interest briefly exceeded $64 billion, reaching a new all-time high, although it has since fallen back to $61.79 billion.
Since July this year, Bitcoin's futures open interest has been steadily rising, breaking through $200 billion, $300 billion, and $400 billion, and finally reaching over $600 billion in November, indicating that market sentiment is becoming increasingly optimistic.
Future Market Outlook
Currently, the Polymarket website shows that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this month has fallen below 25%.
What will the future market trend be? Recently, several institutions and founders have shared their views. The CEO of CryptoQuant stated in a tweet today that even in a parabolic bull market, Bitcoin can experience corrections of up to 30%, as seen in the price discovery process in 2021 when it went from $17,000 to $64,000.
Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz also stated that due to the high leverage in the market, Bitcoin may see a maximum 20% pullback after breaking $100,000, with a potential bottom around $80,000.
Matrixport said that last week's launch of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) options was met with a strong market response, with active trading volume and steadily increasing open interest, indicating that investors' expectations for Bitcoin's future upside are strengthening.
