According to the analysis of the investment management company ARK Invest, the recent pullback of Bit from the near $100,000 high is just a temporary respite, and it will soon soar to a new high again.
"We generally expect the year-end target price to be between $104,000 and $124,000," said David Puell, a researcher at ARK Invest, in an interview with CoinDesk: "It should be noted that this is not investment advice, but so far, the price trend has been very consistent with this forecast."
Puell's analysis is based on the seasonal characteristics of Bit (referring to the performance patterns of Bit in different stages of past bull markets) and on-chain indicators. In his view, the cycle is still in effect, unless there is strong evidence to the contrary. Therefore, Puell expects Bit to eventually form a price high, and then may experience a significant correction like in 2022. He said that the price bottom at that time will depend on how high Bit can rise before the end of the bull market.
Puell said: "I would classify the current market environment as the mid-stage of a bull market. If measured from the bottom to the high, I think we are about 55% to 65% of the way through." He said that based on on-chain indicators, the high point of the current Bit cycle is around $126,000 to $134,000, but "if the market accelerates upward," these price targets may be even higher.
His view is consistent with a theory that as Bit gradually matures, the return rate of each cycle will decrease - a high of $134,000 means its valuation is only twice that of the $69,000 high in 2021, while in 2021, Bit's price was three times the high of the 2017 cycle. Puell said ARK Invest is prepared for this diminishing return, but the current data is not sufficient to draw a definitive conclusion.
Puell also said that Bit's price may be boosted by the incoming Trump administration, depending on the SEC chairman nominated by the new government, as well as the Federal Reserve's policy support for risky assets, not to mention the possibility of establishing a strategic Bit reserve.
