A quick overview of important events this week (11/24-11/30)
- Bitcoin News : The price of Bitcoin is close to $100,000 , but the probability of falling during the past Thanksgiving Day was as high as 70% .
- BTC strategic reserve: Brazilian lawmakers proposed to include “Bitcoin in the national reserve.”
- Interest rate cut progress : US officials support interest rate cuts ; Japanese CPI exceeded expectations, and interest rate hike expectations have increased.
- Taiwan: 11/30 New regulations on money laundering prevention were launched on the road; local exchanges violated the money laundering prevention law and were fined NT$1.5 million.
- Regulation: The United States ( CFTC ) may lead the regulation of cryptocurrency and approve tokenization ; it is not illegal for Chinese individuals to hold virtual currencies; coins can be purchased on banks in Hong Kong.
- Middle East Conflict : Ceasefire Agreement ! Gold and Bitcoin both fell.
- Buffett: "99.5% of the inheritance will be donated to the family charitable foundation ."
- Rich dad: $13 million in Bitcoin!
- Arthur Hayes: The bull market is about to cash out , Bitcoin will reach 250,000 mg by the end of 2025! Dogecoin looks at $1.
- Micro strategy: Add 5.4 billion US dollars to buy 55,000 BTC, and 97,000 Bitcoins are not expensive !
- Musk: Hinted that the US Internal Revenue Service will be audited by the Department of Government Efficiency ( DOGE ), or the budget may be cut.
Changes in trading market data this week
Sentiments and Sectors
1. Fear and Greed Index
This week's market sentiment indicator rose from 80 (extreme greed) to 78 (greed), and the whole week was in the range of (greed) and (extreme greed).
2. Funding rate heat map
This week, the Bitcoin funding rate reached a maximum of 40.55% and a minimum of 10.38% , indicating that the bullish sentiment continues to be strong.
The funding rate heat map shows the changing trend of funding rates for different cryptocurrencies. The color ranges from green with zero rate to yellow with 50% positive rate. Black represents negative rate; the white K-line chart shows the price fluctuation of Bitcoin. , in contrast to the funding rate.
3. Sector performance
According to Artemis data, the average growth rate of the blockchain sector this week was (14.4 %) , with Data Availability, Staking Services, and Gaming occupying the top three respectively (39.4%, 35.4%, and 29.1%) .
This week’s gains for Bitcoin and Ethereum were (-3.4%, 7.0 %) .
The three worst performing areas are: Memecoin (-3.4%), RWA (-3.1%) and Exchange Tokens (-1.4%).
market liquidity
1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization and stablecoin supply
This week’s data on the total cryptocurrency market capitalization showed that it remained at $3.41 trillion from $3.41 trillion . BTC’s market share is 54.52%, and ETH’s market share is 12.56%.
The total supply of stablecoins, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased from $ 179.09 billion to $180.02 billion this week, an increase of $930 million, or about 0.5%.
2. Potential purchasing power within the exchange
Data shows that exchange assets showed a net inflow trend this week, especially the large inflow of USDT after the US election. This phenomenon may be investors preparing for upcoming market fluctuations, and the inflow of funds into exchanges may mean increased buying demand in the short term.
In addition, the highest single-day net inflow of funds on November 23 reached US$14.7 billion , surpassing the highest single-day net inflow of US$6.7 billion in the previous bull market, indicating ample market liquidity.
3. Encrypt dynamics
The overall sentiment in the crypto market was bullish this week, with Thena, Secret, and The Sandbox leading the way with gains of 1,548%, 108%, and 90.2% respectively, and mainstream currencies generally rose. According to Blockchaincenter data, the current Altcoin seasonal index is 63 (+30) , showing signs of a rebound in the popularity of Altcoin.
Bitcoin Technical Indicators
1. Bitcoin spot ETF funds
Bitcoin ETF inflows this week were US$30.7 million.
2. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin rainbow chart shows that the current price of Bitcoin ( $98,000 ) is in the " consider fixed investment " range.
3. Bitcoin net profit and loss performance
Bitcoin's realized net profit and loss indicator shows that market sentiment is currently recovering and the market structure has exceeded this year's high . At that time, Bitcoin prices peaked in mid-March. Although the market has performed strongly in the short term, investors still need to be wary of potential correction risks, especially after a rapid rise, where profit-taking may occur.
4. Long-term Bitcoin holders
According to on-chain data , long-term Bitcoin holders have seen a significant decline in their net positions, with the red bar chart showing a gradual increase in selling pressure. Since mid-October, the net position changes of long-term holders have turned from positive to negative, showing that some long-term investors have begun to gradually take profits. This phenomenon is especially obvious when the price of Bitcoin rises to near new highs, indicating that some capital in the market chooses to make profits at high levels, but the selling pressure has not yet reached the peak in March this year.
Although market sentiment is optimistic, the reduction of LTH positions may increase short-term selling pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the behavior of short-term holders (STH) and whether market demand can absorb the new supply.
5. Purchasing power on the Bitcoin chain
According to on-chain data , this week’s data on Bitcoin’s long- and short-term holders shows that as the price rises, the positions of short-term holders (red line) increase significantly, while the positions of long-term holders (blue line) decrease.
Reflects the flow of funds from long-term investors to short-term speculators. As the proportion of short-term holders increases, market risk appetite heats up, but volatility risks also increase simultaneously. The reduction in positions by long-term holders indicates an increase in profit-taking at high levels, and attention needs to be paid to whether short-term funds can stably support market prices.
6. Bitcoin contract holdings
According to data , Bitcoin’s contract positions on exchanges rose rapidly this week, from US$62.42 billion to US$62.55 billion . The contract positions are at a record high, and at the same time, the price of Bitcoin is also at a record high.
7.Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index
This week’s Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index shows that demand for Bitcoin in the US market is still strengthening. Apart from a brief period of negative premiums during the Asian trading session on Tuesday and Wednesday, premiums then rose again.
The positive premium differential may suggest that U.S. investors have greater purchasing power in the market than global investors.
8. Short-term on-chain cost benchmark belt
This week, Bitcoin's short-term on-chain cost benchmark band shows that the price is close to the upper track (red line) of $108,400 , reflecting rising market sentiment and the increased willingness of short-term investors to make profits. The realized price for long-term holders (blue line) is $76,500 .
In the short term, the price may face resistance at the upper track, and the risk of a correction increases. It needs to be observed whether it can stabilize at a high level to support further upward movement.
9. Bitcoin historical monthly return
According to historical data for the 48th week, Bitcoin’s return was -0.37% , showing a slight decline in Bitcoin prices during the week. This performance is not only below the historical average return (+1.60%) and the median (+3.16%), but it also contrasts sharply with the previous week's (week 47) positive return (+8.89%).
Important technical indicators of Ethereum
1. Ethereum spot ETF
The net outflow of Ethereum ETF funds this week was approximately US$44.7 million .
2. Bitcoin Relevance
This week's data shows that the correlation between BTC and ETH and SOL is 0.21 and 0.92 respectively. Compared with last week's 0.80 and 0.82, the correlation between BTC and major tokens has increased, indicating that market funds are refocused on mainstream currencies.
3.DeFi market total locked position (TVL)
This week’s data shows that the total locked-up volume of the DeFi market increased from US$125.032 billion to US$117.286 billion last week.
Market analysis news this week
1. Bitcoin holds on to US$95,000, Ethereum temporarily stalls, and five major data suggest that US$95,000 may be the bottom of the BTC stage
Bitcoin recently experienced a correction after hitting a record high of $98,800, but then rebounded again. There are currently signs that the market is still leaning towards a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. ( continue reading )
2. Federal Reserve officials support continuing to lower interest rates, and Fed hawks also relented: the December interest rate cut is reasonable.
Both Federal Reserve officials expressed support for continuing to cut interest rates today. Chicago Fed President Goosby said that unless there is some convincing evidence of economic overheating, there is no reason not to continue cutting interest rates; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari It said it was reasonable for the central bank to consider cutting interest rates again in December. ( continue reading )
3. Does Bitcoin have a Thanksgiving curse? According to statistics, the probability of currency prices falling in the past ten years is as high as 70%
In the past ten years, the probability of Bitcoin falling on Thanksgiving has been as high as 70%. Can the curse be broken this time? ( continue reading )
4. Tokyo CPI exceeded expectations, "scaring the market" and the yen jumped 120 points! Expectations for Japan to raise interest rates in December are heating up, so be careful of arbitrage and liquidation chaos coming again
Japan today announced that Tokyo's core CPI increased by 2.2% in November, higher than last month's 1.8% and the expected 2%. It was the first expansion in three months, indicating increased inflationary pressure and intensifying market expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in December. expected. After the data was released, the dollar-yen exchange rate fell 124 points to 149.94. ( continue reading )
5. Israel and Hezbollah reach a ceasefire agreement! Gold and Bitcoin both fell, is the risk aversion market over?
U.S. President Biden announced that the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah, brokered by the United States and France, will take effect on the 27th and stipulate that Israeli troops will withdraw within 60 days. At the same time, both gold and Bitcoin fell, will the safe-haven market fail? ( continue reading )
Cryptocurrency regulatory status in various countries
1. CFTC “approved tokenization” of non-cash collateral in the derivatives market, accelerating the embrace of blockchain
2. Brazilian lawmakers propose to include “Bitcoin in national reserves”: $17.7 billion is planned to be invested in hoarding BTC
Brazilian congressmen proposed a bill to establish the "Bitcoin Sovereign Strategic Reserve" (RESBit) on the 25th, saying that it would not only bring innovation opportunities to Brazil, but also help disperse economic risks. If passed, the bill would allow the purchase of Bitcoin in tranches of up to 5% of national reserves. ( continue reading )
3. The Trump administration is rumored to let the “CFTC dominate cryptocurrency regulation”, weakening the SEC and making crypto daddy the popular candidate for crypto czar.
It is reported today that the incoming Trump administration plans to let the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) take the lead in cryptocurrency regulation and weaken the jurisdiction of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). ( continue reading )
Domestic supervision has raised standards for crypto exchage to prevent laundering. According to the latest announcement from the Financial Supervisory Commission, both MaiCoin (Modern Wealth Technology) and BitoPro (Bitto Technology) were fined NT$1.5 million for violating the money laundering prevention law. ( continue reading )
The Financial Supervisory Commission issued an update yesterday. Article 6 of the Money Laundering Prevention Law will be implemented on November 30. Exchanges and individual currency dealers that have not completed registration under the Money Laundering Prevention Law are not allowed to provide virtual asset services. If they fail to register in accordance with the law and Providing services will result in criminal liability of not more than 2 years and a fine of not more than 5 million yuan. ( continue reading )
Hong Kong's ZA Bank has become Asia's first virtual bank to provide cryptocurrency trading services, launching the function of buying and selling Bitcoin and Ethereum, and attracting young investors with low thresholds and preferential fees. ( continue reading )
Market focus next week
12/2 (Monday)
- United States: November manufacturing PMI, forecast 48.8, previous value 46.5
- United States: November ISM Manufacturing PMI, previous value 46.5
12/3 (Tue)
- United States: JOLTS job openings in October, previous value 7.443M
12/4 (Wednesday)
- United States: Change in non-agricultural employment in November, previous value 233K
- United States: November services PMI, forecast 57.0, previous value 55.0
- United States: November ISM non-manufacturing PMI, previous value 56.0
- United States: November crude oil inventories, previous value -1.844M
12/5 (Thursday)
- United States: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks
- United States: Initial Jobless Claims
12/6 (Friday)
- United States: Average hourly wages in November (month-on-month), previous value 0.4%
- United States: Nonfarm payrolls in November, previous value 12K
- United States: Unemployment rate in November, previous value 4.1%
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