Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
With the recent performance of ETH prices and the rapid short-term rise of some Altcoins, I find that many people have started to discuss the Altcoin season topic again, and many KOLs have also grasped the public's preference, actively recommending various Altcoin projects through social platforms with the slogan of 10-50 times.
Now:
V Dog has become V God again
Some previous garbage VC coins have been added back to the attention list by people
The so-called lead-buying teachers have started to be active and show their profits again
Those eternal profit masters on the Internet are telling you that they actually took a heavy position in the coins that have risen in the past few days in advance
And so on...
It seems that no matter how badly they were scolded in the past, as long as there are a few green candles, people's attitudes can undergo a 180-degree change. Those who previously claimed that there would be no Altcoin season in this bull market are now asking around: which coin should I YOLO now?
Coincidentally, today I saw a sentence said by Sister Hui in the group: Isn't trading a game of ambush and waiting?
I think this sentence is very representative.
In the investment field (including the crypto market), if you want to achieve some success, you need to have a certain ability to control your emotions, and at the same time, you need to strictly form your own trading discipline. That is to say, we need to try to ignore all the FUD and avoid being directly affected by other people's emotions, but should do our own research (DYOR) and make our own understanding.
Remember that in October, we mentioned in the article that BTC might usher in a new round of upward trend. As shown in the figure below.
With the breakthrough of the key position at that time, BTC rose about 58% in less than 2 months, and continued to break new ATHs, reaching as high as around $100,000. However, as BTC is now re-entering a stage of consolidation, most of the people who missed the pump are still holding the same view as before BTC's rise: BTC has risen a lot, I'd better wait for a pullback to buy.
I don't know how much the pullback will be. But I can also foresee that even if there is a pullback in the future, most people still won't buy. This psychology is quite common, and we have mentioned similar situations many times in the previous articles of Talk Li Talk Outside (see). As shown in the figure below.
When it's not rising/falling, they curse it as trash, when it's rising, they wait for a pullback, and when it pulls back, they don't dare to buy... When it's not rising/falling, they continue to curse it as trash, just like that, over and over again. Either they always hope to buy at the lowest point (sell at the highest point), or they get stuck in a state of missing the pump all the way through. And those who finally couldn't help but enter the market after missing the pump a few times often fall into a new cycle of chasing the pump and selling the dump...
In short, for many people, trading seems to be so agonizing, and they end up destroying their mentality or losing their principal in this endless agonizing.
Just as we mentioned in the previous article (December 1st): even if I openly tell you now that BTC and ETH are still in an upward trend overall, to be honest, for many people, participating now is likely to result in not being able to hold on, or they are likely to fall into the trap of chasing the pump and selling the dump. Unless you already have very good risk management capabilities and can strictly manage your positions and set reasonable targets.
And the target setting is divided into two types, many people always like to set the "profit-taking" target, while ignoring the "stop-loss" target. Remember, no one can achieve eternal profits in the investment field, you always need to have a Plan B for yourself.
These days, with the rise of some Altcoins, the FOMO sentiment of many people seems to have risen again. As shown in the figure below. Those who were previously underwater may be considering whether to withdraw the principal. And those who missed the pump and at the same time despise the high prices of BTC or ETH may be looking around for new wealth codes.
Remember that in the previous articles of Talk Li Talk Outside, we shared an Altcoin Season Index indicator with you. As shown in the figure below.
From the reflection of this Altcoin Season Index, it has reached the highest level since January 2024, which means that the gains of many Altcoins are starting to outpace Bitcoin again, and a new round of Altcoin season seems to have begun. As shown in the figure below.
In fact, for the Altcoin season, in the previous period, many people were not optimistic about it, and even some big shots said that there would be no Altcoin season in this bull market. But this may still be a problem of understanding. It can only be said that if you want to see the "all coins flying" Altcoin season like the previous bull market, the chance may be slim, but as long as the hype timing is right, there are still some Altcoins (too many new projects have emerged in this cycle, maybe only 15-20% of the Altcoins have a chance) that may be able to pump people in the short term. As shown in the figure below.
And due to the problem of liquidity, the performance of the Altcoin season is often reflected in the rotation of sectors. If we simply look at the historical experience, the general direction is:
First, traditional high-cap tokens will see an upward trend, such as the relatively representative XRP, ADA, DOT and other so-called old coins, their rise often indicates the possible start of the Altcoin season.
Secondly, it is the pump of some "representative" new projects and relatively low-cap projects, the big players have completed the accumulation of chips before, and when the right time comes, they will pump the market and create greater FOMO sentiment to attract the retail investors. Of course, some high FDV new projects still need to pay attention to the unlocking issue.
Finally, it is the entry of various celebrities/business representatives with their "subordinate retail investors". In the previous bull market, the main entry was the issuance of various NFTs, the development of chain games and the metaverse, and in this bull market, it is likely to be the issuance of memes and the like.
As for the very end, perhaps it will be the same as the historical pattern, after the big bull market, there will only be a mess and a group of retail investors stuck on the top. However, in the above process, there are indeed a lot of wealth opportunities, but these opportunities are often only grasped and safely exited by a small part of the people.
Of course, historical experience cannot fully represent the present and the future, and is only a reference for new possibilities. Therefore, if you want to participate in the above process, you should think about a few questions in advance:
Do you enter this field with an investment mentality? Or a speculative mentality? Or a gambling mentality?
How much time and energy can you devote to this field? Such as learning, data research and so on?
What is your goal in this field? 1x? 10x? Or 100x?
Are you doing short-term, medium-term or long-term investment? What is your definition of short-term or long-term?
What is your risk preference? High-cap, mid-low cap, low-cap projects, which one do you tend to?
Do you randomly believe in what others (KOLs, etc.) say and trade based on that, or do you already have your own investment strategy or logic?
What indicators do you currently use to assist your trading and avoid getting caught up in emotional operations?
If you've been trapped in some projects, what's your Plan B?
In any case, the market is always changing, but human nature seems to never change. What we need to do is try to grasp some of the cyclical patterns in it and use them for our own benefit. In a cycle, some people can make quick money and big money, which means that some people must lose money. In this market, perhaps only 1% of people can really make money. As the market keeps changing, V God can become V Dog, and V Dog can also become V God again, but gamblers will always be gamblers (the wording here is just a quote, I don't mean to belittle anyone, please don't take it personally).
Note: The above content is just a personal perspective and analysis, and is only for learning and exchange, and does not constitute any investment advice. The projects or websites mentioned in the article are also not directly related to the author (the author does not accept any advertising from project parties), please evaluate the safety of the corresponding projects or websites yourself. Investment always has risks, don't get into what you don't understand, and don't play what you can't afford to lose.
