Original Title: "SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: Final Stretch"
Source: SignalPlus
Last week was the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, and the market trading volume was light, maintaining an overall consolidation pattern. The US stock market is about to make history again, with 2024 set to be one of the best performing years on record, with 5 out of the past 6 years seeing double-digit returns.
The market breadth remains supportive, with the 52-week new high-new low differential still looking healthy, the uptrend intact, the volatility index (VIX) trending downward, and after Trump announced that Scott Bessent would be appointed Treasury Secretary, the US bond market has calmed down, with the 10-year yield falling nearly 35 basis points from its October high.
In addition to his "pro-crypto" stance, Bessent is also a fiscal hawk and a supporter of an independent Federal Reserve, and his proposed 3-3-3 plan (reducing the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP, raising real GDP growth to 3%, and increasing daily energy production by 3 million barrels) has brought some relief to the US fixed income market, with the yield curve premium remaining stable at current levels since his nomination.
While his core views are still questionable, reporters found in studying his early speeches that he is "bullish on gold" in the long run due to the central bank's continued accumulation, which could have spillover effects on BTC, especially in the recent discussions on strategic reserve portfolios. At least, the next 4 years will certainly be very interesting.
Traders will return to a busy week, welcoming the release of the last non-farm payroll data of the year. Although concerns about a resurgence in inflation have just emerged, the market still expects a 65% chance of rate cuts, but given the strong economic conditions, the long-term rate cut expectations for 2025-2027 have already been significantly reduced. In terms of employment data, the market expects overall employment to rebound to around +160,000, with the unemployment rate remaining around 4.3%. Given the recent softness in PMI surveys and high-frequency employment data, the final data could also come in below expectations, but unless there is an extremely surprising result, the risk sentiment is likely to remain positive.
The optimistic sentiment in the crypto market remains widespread, but the focus this week is on Ripple, with XRP soaring an astonishing 73% on expectations that the government will drop its long-standing lawsuit against it, helping XRP surpass USDT to become the third largest cryptocurrency by market cap. As expected, whale addresses have been actively buying (and now selling) XRP over the past month.
The current rally is mainly concentrated in the mainstream coins (excluding ETH), with BTC leading the way, while altcoins are still struggling to return to their January highs. Although the recent successes of L2 and protocol-transforming blockchains (such as Hyperliquid) have dominated the crypto market's attention, we've seen some signs of life in Ethereum through inflows into ETH ETFs, with over $330 million flowing in last Friday. Will we see more secondary mainstream coins rallying before the end of the year?
In any case, the fundamental indicators for cryptocurrencies remain optimistic, with the market cap of stablecoins finally surpassing the peak of the Terra-Luna era. Stablecoins are usually the first stop for most fiat currency users entering the crypto market, and the higher market cap (driven by quantity as the price is fixed) indicates greater mainstream participation.
As investors put more new money into the market, will we see faster growth in the new year? Let's hope so!
Welcome to join the official BlockBeats community:
Telegram Subscription Group: https://t.me/theblockbeats
Telegram Discussion Group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App
Twitter Official Account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia
