Original Title: "Behind the XRP breakout: Drivers and Dynamics"
Author: KoreanDegen, Crypto Kol
Compiled by: zhouzhou, BlockBeats
Editor's Note: The recent surge in XRP has attracted widespread attention, and this is the result of the interweaving of multiple factors, including technical breakthroughs, the renewed focus of Korean investors (coupled with the dismissal of the SEC lawsuit and the promotion of the WisdomTree S-1 filing), and the absence of historical selling pressure from figures like Jed McCaleb. These factors have collectively driven the demand for XRP, leading to an exceptional market performance.
The following is the original content (with some editing for ease of understanding):
The recent XRP surge has revealed the complex interplay between technical, market structure, and regional dynamics.
Market Background
On November 10, XRP broke above around $0.55, decisively breaking through the 100-week, 200-week, and 350-week moving averages.
Perpetual contract CVD: Declining.
Open interest: Increasing.
At the same time, Upbit's rankings on the App Store and Play Store began to rise. This confluence of factors suggests a brewing of market activity.
November 12: The Turning Point
Upbit secured the top spot on the Play Store rankings, a critical signal given the user demographics in Korea - predominantly older investors aged 50 to 60, who primarily use Android devices, with Samsung being the dominant player.
With surging demand, XRP broke through ₩1,000 Korean won (around $0.71). Arbitrageurs quickly adjusted the market imbalance, leading to a large number of short positions being liquidated.
Supply Vacuum
In previous cycles, Jed McCaleb's ongoing sales had limited the upside momentum of XRP. However, this time, he no longer has more coins to sell.
Structural Breakout
Only Bitstamp and Upbit's historical charts can be traced back to 2017, and these charts show a persistent diagonal breakout over 6 years, with Upbit's overwhelming dominance in spot trading volume becoming a symbol of the investment fervor in Korea.
Demographic Characteristics of Demand
According to a recent Hankyung News report, the role of older Korean investors in the crypto market has become increasingly prominent:
Since 2021, the number of crypto accounts held by people over 60 has increased by 30% (+188,000 new accounts).
The number of accounts for those over 50 has increased by 22.5% (+356,000 accounts).
By September 2024, individuals over 60 will hold a total of $4.8 billion in crypto assets.
This demographic shift indicates that older investors, particularly in Korea, have played a crucial role in driving the demand for XRP.
Article link: Hankyung Article
The Bigger Picture
While Korean trading volume is a primary factor, it is not the sole driver. Other exchanges, such as Coinbase and Robinhood, have also contributed to the XRP surge. As of now, XRP's spot trading volume has exceeded $6.6 billion.
This is not just an ordinary rally. It is the result of the interweaving of:
1. Critical technical breakthroughs.
2. The renewed focus of retail investors, particularly Korean investors. (Subsequently driven by the dismissal of the SEC lawsuit and the release of the WisdomTree S-1 filing)
3. The absence of supply pressure from major historical sellers like Jed McCaleb.
When causality and multiple factors collide, the result is often extraordinary.