Source: Liu Jie Chain
Overnight, BTC began to respond to altcoins with a vampire-like surge. After BTC consolidated at high levels for a few days, the altcoin sector rotated, competing with each other, causing BTC's market cap dominance to decline significantly. So BTC began to rebound, once again surging above $98,000. (Supplemented before posting, it has already surged sharply, breaking through the important $100,000 mark for the first time in history.)
On November 29, the wind suddenly arose. On December 5, the wind arose again.
The 30-day line has risen to a height of $91,000. Unknowingly, BTC at $90,000 has become a sought-after commodity.
Some friends have built positions above $90,000, feeling cold at the top, anxious, and wondering if the cost is too high. The Chain says that when you look at it from a distance, any price is not expensive.
Speaking of which, the Chain can't help but recall that during a certain period in 2019, when lamenting about not being able to catch the relative low point of buying at $13,000 or $11,000, a friend asked the Chain, if you really believe that BTC will reach $1 million in the future, why do you care whether you bought it at $11,000 or $13,000?
Yes, that's right. When standing at $1 million, the difference between $11,000 and $13,000 will be negligible.
Just 5 years have passed, and now standing at the door of $100,000, looking back at $11,000 and $13,000 5 years ago, the difference between them is no longer visible.
In life, some things that feel anxious when you haven't experienced them, turn out to be not a big deal after you've been through them. For example, accidentally being trapped at the top when adding positions in BTC.
Overnight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the following at the DealBook Summit conference:
"It (Bitcoin) is like gold, but it is virtual, it is digital. People have not used it as a medium of exchange, nor as a store of value. Its volatility is very high. It is not a competitor to the dollar, but a competitor to gold."
Yes, this is the perception of BTC by the helmsman of the world's most powerful central bank, the Federal Reserve - digital gold, or electronic gold.
The Chain clearly recognized at the end of 2018 that BTC's evolution from nothing to becoming a world currency is not a one-time event, but a gradual process:
First, it was the toy of idealists, then the collectible of a few players. These two stages passed quickly, probably around 2009-2011. Later it became a speculative commodity, from 2011-2017, symbolized by the tulip bubble. Then it became an investment, a store of value. The Chain believes this narrative should officially start in 2018, with the symbolic event being the victory of Segregated Witness over big blocks. The symbol of the store of value narrative became electronic gold or digital gold, marking BTC's entry into the mainstream and becoming an asset that serious long-term investors and institutional investors begin to consider.
So at that time, the Chain realized that participating in BTC as a long-term investment after 2018 would greatly reduce the risk and greatly increase the success rate. In short, the risk-reward ratio has crossed a watershed.
From 2019 to 2024, two cycles, it has indeed been a period of gradual establishment of institutional cognition and preparation in various aspects, before entering the market. The years when the Chain built positions were actually slightly earlier than the institutions by about half a step.
The end of 2024 will be another watershed. Institutions will have completed sufficient preparation, and from 2025 onwards, BTC will officially enter the era of institutional dominance. As retail investors, we have become passengers.
Overnight, Russian President Putin also talked about BTC at a certain forum. He said:
"For example, Bitcoin, who can ban it? No one can. Who can ban the use of other electronic payment methods? No one can either. Because these are new technologies, no matter what happens to the dollar, these tools will develop in some way, because everyone is working to reduce costs and improve reliability."
The consensus is gradually spreading around the world.
The Chain vividly remembers the short and powerful words spoken by the early sages at the beginning of 2023:
Gradually, then suddenly.
Just as the Chain was about to write this article, BTC had just rebounded to $98,000. By the time the Chain had written this far, BTC had suddenly broken through $100,000.
Gradually, then suddenly.
Suddenly, the world has changed.
