Source: Bankless
Compiled by: Golem, Odaily
"I was wrong, I didn't expect the Altcoin season to come at the end of November."
In early November, while Bitcoin continued to rise and Altcoins performed flat, the market was still worried that this bull market would not see an Altcoin rally, and most institutions and analysts also issued negative views (related reading: Bitcoin hit a new high again, can Altcoins catch up?). But by the end of November, TradingView data showed that the total market capitalization of Altcoins had nearly doubled since the beginning of November, and Bitcoin's market share fell to 51.4%, while some analysts said that BTC's market share was about to break through a multi-year support level, significantly affecting market sentiment, indicating that the Altcoin season had arrived.
Being in the Altcoin season also has its troubles, which tokens should be bought? Bankless co-founder Ryan Sean Adams' advice is that ETH will rise to $4,000 in the next 24 hours. This may just be his personal FOMO statement, but the Bankless analyst team has been predicting the price trends of some Altcoins, and has been bullish on the price trends of 10 Altcoins for the next three months since the start of the Altcoin season in November.
This article will summarize the specific predictions and reasons of the Bankless analyst team for the 10 Altcoins they are bullish on, and summarize the win rate of their token predictions that will expire at the end of November to the beginning of December.
Prediction win rate from the end of November to the beginning of December: 40%
Excluding the tokens that remain neutral, there are 10 tokens whose price trends predicted by the Bankless analysis team will expire at the end of November to the beginning of December, with the following results:
- Predicted bullish but fell: Euler (EUL) fell 27%;
- Predicted bearish but rose: Ethervista (VISTA) rose 66%, UMA Protocol (UMA) rose 78%, Filecoin (FIL) rose 55%, 1inch (1INCH) rose 80.75%, Blur (BLUR) rose 99.4%;
- Predicted bearish and actually fell: Sanctum (CLOUD) rose 99.69%, GMX (GMX) fell 18.04%, Kamino (KMNO) rose 206.37%, Canto (CANTO) fell 55.14%.
Among them, the reverse was more severe for Instadapp (INST), 1inch (1INCH) and Blur (BLUR), and the predicted returns were higher for Kamino (KMNO), with an increase of 206.37%. However, the overall win rate of the tokens that expired at the end of November to the beginning of December was only 40%.
Bullish Token Inventory
Aave (AAVE)
- Track: DeFi
- Reason: Net deposits and active lending continue to grow, valuation indicators are favorable
- Forecast period: December 2, 2024 to March 2, 2025
- Forecast price: $238.91
- Price performance since forecast: Up 2.88%
On July 31, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on the AAVE price, because Marc Zeller proposed the "temperature check" proposal to upgrade the security module on July 25, and the AAVE token plays a key role in the ecosystem.
Over the past 30 days, AAVE's total active lending has reached $12.51 billion, an increase of 46%, and net deposits have also increased to $31.37 billion, an increase of 49% year-over-year. The increased demand for leverage has driven the expansion of lending and higher lending rates. For example, the current borrowing rate for USDT on Aave is 37%, driving a 63% surge in Aave's revenue.
However, the AAVE token price has only risen about 16%, which is not in line with the speed of protocol revenue growth, indicating that the market may not have fully reflected Aave's recent performance. Therefore, the Bankless analyst team remains bullish on AAVE.
Instadapp (INST)
- Track: DeFi
- Reason: Continued increase in trading volume, innovative protocol mechanisms
- Forecast period: November 26, 2024 to February 26, 2025
- Forecast price: $5.47
- Price performance since forecast: Up 36.01%
On July 16, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on the INST price, because Fluid (a hybrid of money market and DEX) as Instadapp's unified liquidity layer is expected to drive adoption and revenue growth. Since the launch of the DEX on November 1, Fluid's total trading volume has exceeded $1 billion. It is currently ranked fifth in 24-hour trading volume on Ethereum, second only to well-known projects like Uniswap, Curve, Pendle and Balancer.
The rapid success of Fluid may be due to its innovative design. Users can not only earn yield from borrowers, but also earn from trading fees. In addition, debt positions generate trading fees that offset borrowing costs, a unique feature that improves capital efficiency.
Therefore, the Bankless analyst team remains bullish on its subsequent price performance, believing that the increasing popularity of Fluid and its smart collateral and smart debt mechanisms are key drivers for increasing trading volume and efficiency in the DeFi field.
anoncast (ANON)
- Track: SocialFi
- Reason: Publicly recognized by Vitalik, has a chance of going viral
- Forecast period: November 21, 2024 to February 21, 2025
- Forecast price: $0.04
- Price performance since forecast: Down 37.29%
On the evening of November 20, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin first purchased the Base token through the "vitalik.eth" address, exchanging 0.082 ETH ($253) for 30,303k ANON using the DeFi aggregator ParaSwap.
ANON is the utility token of "anoncast", which is a social experiment based on zero-knowledge proof. Token holders with at least 15,000 ANON can post anonymous posts through the Farcaster account associated with the protocol, and holders with at least 1 million ANON can promote or delete existing posts on X/Twitter.
Although many experienced Base participants are somewhat anxious about SocialFi tokens due to the collapse of FRIEND, the difference in this experiment is that it requires anyone who wants to interact with it to purchase ANON.
The Bankless analyst team is bullish on the price performance of ANON, because although the token lacks fundamental value, it has already gained public recognition from Vitalik, and if more crypto audiences interact with this novel experiment, it may go viral.
Near (NEAR)
- Track: L1
- Reason: Riding the AI narrative, able to attract capital attention
- Forecast period: November 14, 2024 to February 14, 2025
- Forecast price: $5.2
- Price performance since forecast: Up 42.88%
On November 11, NEAR Protocol co-founder Illia Polosukhin proposed a plan to create the world's largest open-source model with 14 trillion parameters, which will be 3.5 times the size of Meta's open-source alternative Llama. According to Polosukhin's report on Cointelegraph, the training and computing costs (estimated at about $160 million) will be funded by selling NEAR tokens, and the model will run on a decentralized computing network.
While increased latency is a common drawback of decentralized computing networks, Polosukhin claims that emerging research from Google's AI subsidiary DeepMind shows that fast interconnectivity is also possible.
The Bankless analyst team is bullish on NEAR's subsequent price performance, because the advanced decentralized computing network centered on NEAR combined with Polosukin's AI background will be a significant advantage in attracting users, developers and capital. However, if the market suddenly finds the value of such activities to be limited, the sale of NEAR to fund model development may meaninglessly depress the price.
Solana (SOL)
- Track: L1
- Reason: Trump's election is favorable, the bull market FOMO sentiment continues
- Forecast period: November 13, 2024 to February 13, 2025
- Forecast price: $217.2
- Performance since forecast: Up 9.12%
In September, the Bankless analyst team was not optimistic about SOL's price performance, believing that as holders exit the ecosystem and turn to other alternative investment opportunities, a decline may occur. Although SOL's price increase was indeed not as good as the hot L1s like APT and SUI in the following period, its US dollar-denominated price has been steadily rising throughout October and has completely exploded in early November due to the favorable outcome of the US election.
The Bankless analyst team has now turned bullish on SOL, as under the Trump administration, it can still enjoy favorable catalysts such as the approval of spot ETFs, and in the bull market, the market's general assumption about it can continue in the foreseeable future.
Helium Network (HNT)
- Track: Infrastructure
- Reason: Continuous user growth, strategic cooperation with telecom companies
- Forecast period: November 12, 2024 to February 12, 2025
- Forecast price: $5.95
- Performance since forecast: Up 43.87%
At the end of July, the Bankless analyst team was not optimistic about HNT's price performance, so the token had fallen 90% from its 2021 all-time high and 55% from its cycle peak on February 15. In addition, platform revenue has declined and user growth has slowed significantly since peaking in early March.
However, since then, Helium Network's data credit consumption rate has more than doubled, indicating that network usage has also more than doubled since July. This growth is primarily driven by Helium Mobile users, whose numbers have increased from 105,336 at the time of the last forecast to 119,934.
While the total number of Helium Mobile users may not be high in itself, Helium's strategic partnership with telecom companies helps to increase network utilization. For example, Telefonica's number of connected IoT network devices grew 18.1% from 2021 to 2022 and then 12.2% from 2022 to 2023.
Therefore, the Bankless analyst team is subsequently bullish on HNT's price performance, expecting that the continued growth of Helium Mobile users and the strategic partnership with telecom companies will drive increased utilization of the Helium network, which will have a positive impact on the entire Helium ecosystem.
Pendle Finance (PENDLE)
- Track: DeFi
- Reason: The protocol mechanism still has advantages in the bull market
- Forecast period: November 8, 2024 to February 8, 2025
- Forecast price: $5.19
- Performance since forecast: Up 29.09%
On September 20, the Bankless analyst team's forecast for PENDLE's price was bearish, as $360 million in yields were due to mature later that month. Although Pendle continued to offer market-leading yield opportunities at the time, its token price and total value locked had fallen sharply since late June 2024, when a massive $3 billion in debt matured in the liquidity pools created around the airdrop frenzy in early 2024.
Although Pendle experienced a large outflow of TVL in September, the token price was not greatly affected, and the TVL has been growing positively since October. Therefore, the Bankless analyst team has turned bullish on PENDLE's subsequent performance, believing that its yield Swap is still the leading mechanism in the market, and if the cryptocurrency bull market begins to accelerate, they will be in a favorable growth position.
Lido (LDO)
- Track: LST
- Reason: Trump's election, fueling market optimism for Ethereum-based tokens
- Forecast period: November 7, 2024 to February 7, 2025
- Forecast price: $1.34
- Performance since forecast: Up 56.72%
With the end of the US election, investors view Trump's victory in the presidential election as a positive for the crypto market. Although Trump did not provide details on policies he believes could benefit cryptocurrencies during the campaign, he did promise to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, whose agency has claimed that Lido's stETH is an unregistered security. Additionally, prior to the election, Trump had already raised $15 million in investment for World Liberty Financial (WLFI), an app that is expected to become an Aave deposit front-end.
While the crypto industry's hopes for the Trump administration are still largely speculative, he may fulfill his vague promises and direct executive branch agencies not to enforce regulations against crypto projects over the next 4 years, and the Republican's landslide victory in Congress provides the possibility of enshrining such reforms into law.
Although the Bankless analyst team remains concerned about the continued decline in stETH market share and Lido's profitability, their bullish view on LDO this time is that Trump's election is expected to fuel investors' optimism about an unknown but seemingly better future.
Uniswap (UNI)
- Track: DeFi
- Reason: Trump's election, fueling market optimism
- Forecast period: November 6, 2024 to February 6, 2025
- Forecast price: $9.29
- Performance since forecast: Up 65.12%
In October, Bankless was bearish on the UNI token due to Uniswap's launch of Unichain. Although UNI fell more than 20% in the following month, it began to soar on November 6, the biggest rally since 2024 (second only to the February 23 rally triggered by the UNI fee conversion proposal, which was later blocked by the Uniswap Foundation).
The Bankless analyst team has turned bullish on UNI's price performance again, expecting crypto participants to be more optimistic about the prospects for near-term industry regulation, especially when it applies to tokens that may distribute cash flows to holders in a dividend-like manner.
Jito (JTO)
- Track: LST
- Reason: The leading LST project on Solana, will benefit from the development of meme coins
- Forecast period: November 1, 2024 to February 1, 2025
- Forecast price: $2.29
- Performance since forecast: Up 60.26%
In July, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on JTO's price performance, expecting the deployment of Jito's native staking to consolidate its position as the leading liquid staking protocol on Solana. Although JTO's price fell 17% during the first three months of the forecast period, Jito's TVL has steadily reached new highs in both US dollar and SOL terms.
The surge in meme coins on Solana has also increased MEV opportunities; Jito's daily SOL fees have reached an all-time high due to the high slippage generated by these low-liquidity meme pools.
Therefore, the Bankless analyst team is bullish on JTO's subsequent performance, believing that the protocol is consolidating its position as the top liquid staking protocol on Solana, and expects the popularity of meme coins (and the tips paid by MEV arbitrageurs) to benefit Jito.
