Odaily星球日报讯 道明证券美国利率策略师 Molly McGown 表示，就业数据公布后，即将出炉的 CPI 将成为美联储在下次会议上暂停降息计划的“更高门槛”。道明证券预计美联储将在明年年初暂停降息，因为政策制定者将在 1 月份特朗普上任后评估他的财政政策。Molly McGown 补充说：“我们从鲍威尔那里得知，一旦他知道实际的政策是什么，就会开始将其纳入政策框架，”（金十）

道明证券：即将出炉的CPI或是美联储暂停降息计划的更高门槛

Odaily Odaily News: Molly McGown, U.S. interest rate strategist at TD Securities, said that after the release of employment data, the upcoming CPI will become a &quot;higher threshold&quot; for the Fed to suspend its interest rate cut plan at the next meeting. TD Securities expects the Fed to suspend interest rate cuts at the beginning of next year as policymakers will evaluate Trump&#39;s fiscal policy after he takes office in January. Molly McGown added: &quot;We have heard from Powell that once he knows what the actual policy is, he will start to incorporate it into the policy framework,&quot; (Jinshi)

TD Securities: The upcoming CPI may be a higher threshold for the Fed to suspend its interest rate cut plan

PANews, December 7 - This week's closely watched US non-farm payroll data for November was better than expected, but not hot enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting rates again later this month. The market has raised the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December to around 90%. At the same time, more and more Fed officials are inclined to be cautious about rate cuts. The US inflation data next week is the only data that could shake the Fed's expectations of a rate cut in December. After the data showed that the US labor market remains strong but also shows signs of slowing, Fed officials seem poised to cut rates this month, but the debate on a possible pause in rate cuts next year has already been put on the table. Policymakers who spoke before the Fed's silent period generally said they expect interest rates to continue to decline, while taking a cautious approach to the pace of rate cuts. The key points that the market will focus on in the new week are as follows:
Monday 9:30, China's CPI year-on-year for November;
Monday 23:00, US wholesale sales month-on-month for October;
Tuesday 0:00, US 1-year inflation expectation of the New York Fed for November;
Wednesday 21:30, US CPI and core CPI for November;
Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 7; US PPI year-on-year and month-on-month for November;
Friday 1:00, the Fed to release the flow of funds for the third quarter of 2024;
Friday 21:30, US import price index month-on-month for November.

Next week's macro outlook: The Fed enters its regular silent period, and CPI data may create suspense about interest rate cuts

According to Russ Brownback, the global head of fixed income macro strategy at BlackRock, the "quite strong" US employment report released on Friday may not prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates this month, as the Fed's policy rate is still restrictive. Despite evidence of continued economic growth, some stickiness in inflation, and the stock market near historical highs, traders on Thursday morning expected the Fed to likely decide to lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points from the current range of 4.5% to 4.75% later this month. Brownback said one reason for the rate cut may be that the Fed's "real" policy rate is currently higher than in July 2023, when the Fed made its last rate hike to curb high inflation. (<Odaily Planet Daily>)

BlackRock: Even if non-farm data is quite strong, it will not stop the Fed from cutting interest rates

Odaily Planet Daily Report: The seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the US increased by 227,000 in November, the largest increase since March 2024, exceeding the expected 200,000. The previous value was revised upward from 12,000 to 36,000. The US unemployment rate in November was 4.2%, in line with expectations, compared to the previous value of 4.10%. Analysts said that at first glance, this report does not show signs of economic recession. The job market has not fallen to the bottom, but there are indeed signs of slowing down. Considering the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate, the upper limit of the target range is 4.75%, more than one percentage point higher than the core inflation rate, and there are still valid reasons for further rate cuts. The non-farm employment report is one of the last major data sets the Federal Reserve will consider before deciding whether to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time at the December meeting. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said this week that the Federal Reserve can be "a little more cautious" on the issue of interest rate cuts, as the US economy is "in very good shape" and the inflation level is slightly higher than previously expected.