Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”，美联储到 12 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 14%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 86%。

美联储12月降息25个基点的概率升至86%

Odaily Odaily reported that according to CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Watch&quot;, the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate unchanged by December is 14%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 86%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 86%.

Here is the English translation, with the content inside <> not translated:

The Mars Finance news reported that the closely watched US non-farm payroll data for November this week was better than expected, but not hot enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates again later this month. The market has raised the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December to around 90%. At the same time, more and more Fed officials are inclined to be cautious about rate cuts. The US inflation data in the coming week is the only important data that could shake the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in December. After the data showed that the US labor market remains strong but also has signs of slowing, Fed officials seem to be expected to cut rates this month, but the debate on possibly pausing rate cuts next year has already been put on the table. Policymakers who spoke before the Fed's silent period generally said they expect interest rates to continue to decline, while taking a cautious approach to the pace of rate cuts. The key points that the market will focus on in the new week are as follows:
<Monday 9:30, China's November CPI year-on-year>
<Monday 23:00, US October wholesale sales month-on-month>
<Tuesday 0:00, US November New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation>
<Wednesday 21:30, US November CPI and core CPI>
<Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 7; US November PPI year-on-year, month-on-month>
<Friday 1:00, the Fed releases the flow of funds for the third quarter of 2024>
<Friday 21:30, US November import price index month-on-month>

Next week's macro outlook: The Fed enters its regular silent period, and CPI data may create suspense about interest rate cuts

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Federal Reserve Governor Harker said on Friday that the Federal Reserve may be time to slow the pace of interest rate cuts. She believes that the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate may not be much higher than the neutral level. Harker pointed out that the financial market expects the Federal Reserve to only cut interest rates once in the next two meetings, and she said that this expectation is consistent with her view. She said that inflation, economic growth and the labor market are still stronger than the Federal Reserve's expectations in September. Harker's speech is one of the most explicit hints from Federal Reserve officials in recent times, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's policy stance may no longer be very firm in cooling inflation and economic growth.

Fed's Hammack: It may be time for the Fed to slow down its rate cuts

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said that the employment data did not "change the prospect of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in two weeks." In addition, Bill Eigen, a bond expert at JPMorgan Asset Management, warned the market before the Fed's next meeting that the Fed's room for interest rate cuts may not be as large as it imagines, and it would be better for central banks not to cut interest rates again in December. He added that this is because there are some signs that the US economy is starting to heat up again, including strong GDP growth, slightly higher-than-expected inflation data last month, and record-high stock prices. (Gold Ten)