Master Ye Talks About Hot Topics:
I didn't update for two days, and some fan friends started asking me: Will there be a big correction? This makes me feel that the market has risks, and fans are more anxious. Today, I'll talk to you about this topic, let's be practical, and don't be overly worried.
The logic of the bull market is very simple: the decline is to rise more fiercely, just like a ball being hit to the ground, the height of its rebound depends on the force of the hit. Moreover, the decline in a bull market always has a limit, once it exceeds the line, it will be immediately pulled back by the elastic mechanism of the market, this is called a rebound, it is a law, not a suggestion.
What about the bear market? Sorry, the ball has deflated. Each rebound is a little shorter, and over time, it's hard to jump up. So in a bull market, don't mess around with short positions and guard against declines every day, thinking "to control all by doing nothing".
Being in short positions every day is the safest, but the problem is, isn't the purpose of coming to the market to mess around? Even taking a plane has the risk of crashing, so it's better to mess around on the ground, at least you can touch the scenery.
In addition, whether the Fed will cut interest rates and whether Japan will raise interest rates, which were mentioned in my article last Friday, will become the focus on the 18th of this month, but don't be in a hurry, these two big bosses won't start the silent period 10 days in advance, the market's habit is to act 72 hours in advance.
So the market is still quite active these days, don't give yourself a drama too early, just focus on the current situation. It's better to put the money in your pocket first before thinking about the future, being steady is never wrong.
BTC Status: Final Sprint or Sideways Exploration?
BTC had a violent needle insertion last Friday, clearing a wave of leverage, like a "heavenly big cleanup". In the coming week, it is likely to have another surge before the Fed's rate cut, so in the short term, we should focus on buying on dips.
But don't be too complacent either, when the market reaches a stage of the tail, adjustments and washouts are almost inevitable. Whether it's sideways or sideways down, the best strategy is to gradually put the money in your pocket, don't wait for the market to give you a "waterfall-like liquidation".
Against Human Nature: What Should We Do When the Market is Unanimously Bullish?
The market's plot always catches people off guard, especially when the majority start betting in the same direction. Everyone is bullish, so what's the point of going up? It's like a mahjong table, three people are waiting for the same card, and you insist on adding a fourth one... it's not going to work.
At this time, we need to be alert to the market's "another direction" tricks - it may not be a direct decline, but it is likely to be a prolonged sideways market + psychological torture battle.
A Cure for Anxiety
Finally, don't let yourself become the market's "ATM". Prepare a 30% cash position for the unknown big correction, keep some ammunition, and leave some room. Since you've come to the market, don't be nervous every day, learn to accept volatility, and learn to control your position.
This is not a Buddhist attitude, but a trading philosophy - the market is not to be revered, but to be gambled on.
In summary, it's just one sentence: market fluctuations are the nature of the market, and anxiety is the nature of people. Instead of worrying about corrections, believe in your own plan; instead of being trapped in volatility, find opportunities in volatility!
Master Ye's Trend Outlook:
Bitcoin has continued to test 100K, but has failed to stabilize and re-enter the adjustment phase. After breaking through 100K, due to the appearance of a long bearish candle, attention should be paid to whether there will be further adjustments. It is suggested to pay attention to important support levels and the upward trend line.
Currently, if the price breaks through the high-pressure area and gets support, if 99.3K does not fall, it is still possible to expect further upside, and it is necessary to observe whether the upward momentum can be sustained.
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: 100500
Second Resistance: 101500
Support Levels:
First Support: 99300
Second Support: 98300
Recommendation for Today:
Currently, the rebound view can still be maintained, but considering the formation of the long bearish candle, attention should still be paid to whether there will be further adjustments, especially observing whether the primary support is effectively supported.
In the short term, the rebound operation view can be maintained, and choose an appropriate position to enter the market. You can also pay attention to the first and second supports as well as the trend line to set a reasonable profit and loss ratio range.
In order to further rise, the market currently lacks new upward momentum, and it is necessary to wait for new market events to stimulate price fluctuations. When there is a sharp decline, you can enter short-term opportunities in the stabilization zone.
12.9 Master Ye's Wave Preset:
Long Entry: 97300-98300 area, light position, Target: 99300-100200, if it breaks through 10200 and pulls back to 100450-100800, you can long again
Short Entry: 10200-10500 area, light position, Target: 99300-98300
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