Weekly Review
This week from December 2 to December 9, the highest price of BTC was around $104,088, the lowest was close to $90,500, and the fluctuation range reached about 13%. Observing the distribution of trading volume, there is a large amount of trading volume around 95,000, which will have a certain support or pressure.
• Analysis:
1. 60,000-68,000 about 1.91 million;
2. 90,000-100,000 about 1.35 million;
• The probability of not falling below 87,000-91,000 in the short term is 70%;
• The probability of not breaking through 100,000-105,000 in the short term is 60%.
Important News
Economic News
1. Non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, higher than the expected 200,000, and the previous value was revised from 120,000 to 360,000.
2. The unemployment rate in November was 4.2%, in line with the expected 4.2%, higher than the previous 4.10%.
3. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 85%, up from 67% before the employment report was released.
4. Kai Investment Macro Analyst Stephen Brown: The CPI and PPI reports next week may be the last set of data to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting rates in December. Core inflation in November is likely to show relatively weak growth, making a 25-basis-point rate cut more likely than a pause.
5. Federal Reserve Governor Bostic: The decision at the December meeting is not pre-determined, and future data will be very important, requiring flexibility.
6. Federal Reserve Governor Waller said: It is expected that rate cuts will continue in the next year, and he is inclined to support a rate cut in December. Federal Reserve Governor Daly: To keep the economy in good shape, policy adjustments must continue, and interest rates should be lowered.
7. HSBC expects the S&P 500 index to reach 6,700 points by the end of 2025 (currently 6,089 points).
8. JPMorgan expects gold to rise to $3,000 per ounce next year, with an average price of $2,950 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025 (currently $2,636 per ounce).
9. The market believes that Trump's choices for top positions are "very market-friendly", including letting investor Scott Bessent serve as Treasury Secretary and letting cryptocurrency enthusiast Paul Atkins serve as SEC chairman.
10. Deutsche Bank strategist Parag Thatte said that long-term trends may continue to drive new capital inflows, which will boost the US stock market next year.
Crypto Ecosystem News
1. Trump appointed PayPal co-founder David Sacks as the "White House AI and Cryptocurrency Affairs Officer", and David will formulate policies for the current US government in the fields of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies, which are crucial to the US economy.
2. The analysis points out that David Sacks is likely to help lead the relaxation of regulations on the cryptocurrency industry, which was promised by Trump during the election campaign. This position is expected to provide a direct channel to the White House for cryptocurrency advocates, and serve as a liaison between Trump, Congress, and federal agencies related to digital assets (including the SEC and CFTC).
3. Mizuho Securities strategist Shoki Omori pointed out that in order to further rise from here, other cryptocurrencies should first catch up, and the altcoin market may see a catch-up rally.
4. On December 5, 2024, the UK Financial Times publicly apologized to readers for its negative coverage of cryptocurrencies over the past 14 years. BTC has recently broken through $100,000, and many readers believe the Financial Times needs to apologize for its long-standing skeptical stance.
Long-term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Medium-term Exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long it will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term Observation: Used to analyze the short-term market conditions; as well as the probability of some direction and the occurrence of certain events under certain premises
Long-term Insight
• Long-term investor holdings structure
• Crypto ETF net inflows
• Major exchange net inflows
The holdings of long-term investors have dropped to below 50%. This generally indicates that the market has entered the middle or mid-stage. Relatively cautious is needed in the later stage of the market.
From the perspective of external market including new capital inflows, they still show interest in cryptocurrencies.
The cumulative net inflows of funds are still not weakening.
From the perspective of internal whales and large holders, the current market buying power has started to weaken relatively.
The internal momentum is no longer as strong as before.
The internal capital buying momentum is starting to decline, while external capital still has the willingness to buy.
Medium-term Exploration
• Cost structure at different price levels
• ETH exchange outflow ratio
• BTC exchange net inflows trend
• Network sentiment positivity
• Incremental model
The 100,000 price level is currently a difficult profit pressure area for the market to overcome, and there will be relatively large selling pressure around this price level each time the market approaches it.
The current upward momentum in the market may have weakened somewhat.
The outflow ratio of ETH is still rising, which may lead to more violent fluctuations in the market.
Currently, the trading volume of BTC on exchanges is relatively low, which may indicate that BTC users have a certain tendency to wait and see, without significant directional actions (selling or buying).
Network sentiment is still declining, which may mean that the current participation enthusiasm in the market has dropped to the lowest level of the month.
Under the relatively poor participation enthusiasm, the liquidity of the existing inventory may also be partially missing.
At the same time, with the decline in participation enthusiasm, the market may also enter a state of more observation.
The inflow speed of incremental funds has slowed down slightly recently.
The current enthusiasm may have reached a certain stage, and the difficulty of the subsequent market may increase.
In the absence of incremental funds, if the market enters a stage of inventory game, it may repeat the rhythm of the market in Q2 and Q3 of 2024.
Short-term Observation
• Derivatives risk coefficient
• Option open interest ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option implied volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• BTC exchange net inflows
• ETH exchange net inflows
• Heavy selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin exchange net inflows
• Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: The risk coefficient is in the red zone, and the derivatives risk is increasing.
After the frenzy has lasted for nearly a month, the market will now see an increase in the scale of derivatives liquidation.
The put option ratio is at a medium-high level, and the trading volume is at a medium level.
As mentioned last week, the market has been volatile when the trading volume of derivatives is low. This week, the trading volume of derivatives has fallen back to a low level, indicating that the next round of volatility is brewing.
The implied volatility of options has increased slightly.
Sentiment rating: Neutral
The bullish sentiment line in the market is like a wave, and the bullish sentiment this time to break the 100,000 mark is weaker than the last time, so the bullish sentiment has declined this week, and the market is expected to make another attempt to break 100,000 soon.
New and active addresses are at a high level.
Spot and selling pressure rating: BTC is in a state of large outflow, ETH is in an overall medium outflow.
The net position of BTC exchanges continues to see a large outflow.
ETH is in an overall medium outflow.
The market is very strong, and the appearance of high-weight selling pressure has not had an impact on the market.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power and stablecoin purchasing power are flat compared to last week, both in a positive upward trend.
Global purchasing power is basically flat compared to last week.
Stablecoin purchasing power is flat compared to last week, in a positive upward trend.
On-chain transaction data rating: There is buying interest at 94,000; there is selling interest at 100,000.
There is buying interest around the 90,000-94,000 price level;
There is selling interest around the 100,000 price level.
There is buying interest around the 90,000-94,000 price level;
There is selling interest around the 100,000 price level.
There is buying interest around 90,000;
There is selling interest around 100,000.
Weekly Summary:
News Summary:
1. Since the US presidential election last month, investors have poured nearly $140 billion into US stock funds, with the market believing that Trump's tax cuts and reform measures will boost economic growth.
2. US employment data has slowed, and it is expected that the US benchmark interest rate will be lowered again this month, i.e. a rate cut.
3. Looking at the market performance in the past few months, the market is recovering information.
In the outlook for the coming new year, the Trump administration's policy team is relatively loose for the capital market, including the crypto market. In addition, the factors of artificial intelligence and multi-faceted technology are superimposed, which should support the continued growth of the economy.
Investment rating for the coming year: Overweight US stocks, still relatively optimistic about crypto.
Long-term on-chain insights:
1. The share of long-term participants in the market has started to drop below 50%;
2. Crypto ETFs show that the external market still has a high interest in buying crypto;
3. The large exchange position shows that the buying interest of large players in the market has started to decline significantly.
• Market positioning: Declining internal buying, but external buying continues.
Medium-term on-chain exploration:
1. 100,000 is a price level with significant profit-taking selling pressure;
2. The circulation of ETH has increased, and the risk of volatility in the market has increased;
3. BTC users are relatively inclined to be cautious;
4. The current participation enthusiasm has declined;
5. The incremental growth has shown a slight slowdown.
• Market positioning:
Cautious
The sentiment in the market has become slightly cool, and the overall market may be trapped in a directionless wait-and-see mood.
Short-term on-chain observation:
1. The risk factor is in the red zone, and the risk of derivatives has increased.
2. The number of new active addresses is at a high level, and the market activity is high.
3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.
4. The net position of exchanges shows that BTC is in a state of large outflow, and ETH is in an overall medium outflow.
5. Global purchasing power and stablecoin purchasing power are flat compared to last week, both in a positive upward trend.
6. On-chain transaction data shows that there is buying interest at 94,000; there is selling interest at 100,000.
7. The probability of not breaking below 87,000-91,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability of not breaking above 100,000-105,000 in the short term is 60%.
• Market positioning:
The bullish sentiment in the market this time to break the 100,000 mark is weaker than the last time, but overall the market sentiment is still very positive, and there may be some short-term volatility, so it is recommended to wait patiently for the next upward push.
Risk warning: The above are market discussions and explorations, and do not have any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent the risk of black swan events in the market.
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