Odaily星球日报讯 Brown Brothers Harriman 的 Elias Haddad 在一份报告中表示，如果北京时间今晚 21：30 的通胀数据高于预期，美元和国债收益率可能会进一步上升。因此，对美国降息的预期可能会进一步下调。

Odaily星球日报讯  Brown Brothers Harriman 的 Elias Haddad 在一份报告中表示，如果北京时间今晚 21：30 的通胀数据高于预期，美元和国债收益率可能会进一步上升。因此，对美国降息的预期可能会进一步下调。

分析师：美国CPI数据或将推高美元及美债收益率

Odaily Odaily report: Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman said in a report that if the inflation data at 21:30 Beijing time tonight is higher than expected, the US dollar and government bond yields may rise further. Therefore, expectations for a US rate cut may be further reduced.

Odaily Odaily report: According to a report by Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman, if the inflation data at 21:30 Beijing time tonight is higher than expected, the US dollar and government bond yields may rise further. As a result, expectations for a US rate cut may be further reduced.

Analyst: US CPI data may push up the dollar and US bond yields

According to a report by Pepperstone's senior research strategist Michael Brown, the US November CPI data to be released tonight is unlikely to substantially change the near-term outlook for the Federal Reserve's policy. A 25-basis-point rate cut next week appears to be already determined, with the labor market rather than price pressures being the main driver of the current policy shift. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the overall CPI year-on-year increase to accelerate from 2.6% in October to 2.7% in November, while the core CPI year-on-year increase is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3%.

Agency: US CPI data is unlikely to change the Fed's recent policy

Odaily reports that the US CPI report for November will be released on Wednesday. Economists expect the CPI year-on-year growth rate to be 2.7%, slightly higher than the 10.6% in October. A Bank of America strategist said that after the market's muted reaction to the CPI readings in the past few months, this inflation data could be particularly influential for the US stock market. The strategist added that "Conversely, a stronger CPI data could reignite volatility, especially given the 5% rebound in US stocks after the election." More importantly, the inflation data will impact the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision. If there is an upside surprise, it could increase the likelihood of the Fed pausing its rate cut cycle sooner. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the market expects an 86% probability of the Fed cutting rates by another 25 basis points at its meeting next week.

If the CPI unexpectedly rises tomorrow night, it may trigger the Fed to suspend interest rate cuts earlier

Here is the English translation:

On December 11, according to 4E monitoring, ahead of the release of US CPI data, US stocks collectively fell, with the three major indices all declining. The S&P 500 index closed down 0.30%, the Dow Jones index closed down 0.35%, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of decline, and the Nasdaq fell after hitting a new intraday high, ultimately closing down 0.25%. Large-cap tech stocks were mixed, with Tesla rising 2.87% to a new three-year high, Google A shares rising 5.59%, the largest single-day gain since April. In the crypto concept stock sector, MicroStrategy rose 3.3% as the market speculated it may be included in the Nasdaq 100 index, while Coinbase fell 2.61%.

The cryptocurrency market experienced a violent correction, affected by Google's launch of the latest quantum chip Willow, which triggered discussions in the crypto community about quantum computing attacks. Bitcoin fell from around $100,000 to nearly $94,000, while <Altcoins> generally fell 20% or so, becoming the biggest decline in the recent market. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering around $97,000.

In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the US dollar index rose to a new one-week high, continuing to rise for the third consecutive day; geopolitical risk aversion sentiment and market bets on the Fed's rate cut next week boosted gold prices, with spot gold rising over 1% to test $1,700; the easing of the situation in Syria and potential stimulus measures in major emerging economies supported market confidence, helping oil prices stabilize after the decline.

The market is currently focused on the release of the US November CPI data at 21:30 tonight, which will largely influence the Fed's interest rate path at the meeting on December 17-18. The CME's FedWatch tool shows that traders see an 86% chance of a rate cut next week.

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