Master Ye Talks About Hot Topics:
Today is Friday, and if the market does not have any major fluctuations over the weekend, it is estimated that Master Ye's updates will also be temporarily suspended. However, let's anticipate the market trends for next week in advance, as no one knows when the market will quietly bring you surprises or challenges.
The first thing to focus on is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in the early morning of next Thursday. A 25-basis-point rate cut is almost a done deal. Typically, the market will see some fluctuations within six hours before the meeting, and if the rate cut meets expectations, a market rebound is also expected.
Therefore, this news will not have a significant negative impact on the market, and the operation strategy is still to long on dips and appropriately take profits during the rebound, which is a safe bet.
Next, we need to keep an eye on Japan's monetary policy meeting on December 19th. If Japan does not raise interest rates and the expectation for a rate hike in January is not strong, the market may take this opportunity to surge again.
Recent news shows that Japan's rate hike may be postponed to March next year, which also means that from a macro perspective, the real big correction may occur between March and May next year.
This big correction generally refers to a retracement of about 32-38% of the uptrend from November 5th to March. If viewed from a weekly chart level, the market fluctuations during that period may be more intense.
But based on the current situation, there are no signs of such a deep adjustment. So Master Ye personally speculates that the market will not have the risk of a deep adjustment between December and March. As long as the short-term impact of Japan's rate hike is avoided, the strategy of longing on dips is still applicable, and there is no need to be too cautious.
As for BTC, the current key support level is around 100k. If this line is stable, the next target may be 120k to 150k. Even if there is some short-term correction, Master Ye is more optimistic that this adjustment will occur after March next year.
The "big correction" mentioned by Master Ye actually refers to the retracement of BTC from the 3-day line to the weekly line, with an expected overall correction of about 32%. This is based on the support level data, especially for early investors below 94k, who have not shown obvious panic selling so far.
The medium-term support is still relatively stable, and the support between 94.5k and 98.5k remains firm. Although some funds have flowed to around 100k, these are mainly short-term investors, so their existence is not enough to break through the 95k support without major negative news.
Master Ye Looks at the Trend:
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: 105,000
Second Resistance: 101,500
Support Levels:
First Support: 99,000
Second Support: 98,000
Suggestions for Today:
Followin' the price action after the break above 100K, the price has continued to face resistance at 100K and has seen a pullback. Therefore, the focus now is to verify the upward momentum, rather than expecting a new high breakthrough. A more stable strategy is to operate after confirming the upward momentum.
In today's trading, the price has fallen due to the inability to retest yesterday's high. So in the short term, you can adjust your position flexibly by observing whether the rebound is effective in combination with trading volume. Currently, the price is continuously testing the highs, and due to the proximity to the new high, you need to pay attention to the selling pressure from profit-taking, and absolutely do not chase the upward trend!
Master Ye's Wave Range Preset on 12.13:
Long Entry: 98,950-98,850 with light position, can directly long if it falls to 98,000-97,450, Target: 100,500-101,400
Short Entry: Not Considered for Now
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