My previous article shared the logical relationship between AI DePIN, AI MEME, and AI Agent narratives, but when it came to digging out the potential Alpha of AI, the problem arose - is it the AI MEME with a strong wealth effect but frequent replacement from the conspiracy group? Is it the early-stage protocol framework that is building the infra? Or some cool and specific application scenario single AI? To be honest, I've been confused for a long time, and here are just some shallow insights:
1) The big trend is undoubtedly that the AI Agent is not a "asset" or an "application", but a new paradigm of large-scale blockchain ecosystem "narrative".
That is to say, the arrival of the AI Agent will be like the DeFi Summer that the blockchain welcomed in 2020, and it will generate a huge new "bubble" narrative cycle around the Token issuance, custody, and trading of the AI Agent; infrastructure construction, frameworks, standards, communication, stacking, and SaaS encapsulation; Application development, operations, aggregation, iteration, and landing, etc.
DeFi has driven the glory of the last bull market, and the three-horse carriage of stablecoins + lending + DeX derivatives has stimulated tremendous market vitality. According to incomplete statistics, the total locked-in value of multi-chain DeFI is 134.6 billion, the circulation of stablecoins has also exceeded 100 billion US dollars, the monthly trading volume of DEX has reached 372.3 billion US dollars, and the lending volume is close to 20 billion US dollars, etc. The market size and ecological importance of the entire DeFi industry are growing at an amazing rate and still continuing to refresh, not to mention the various chain, application MCAP\FDV and other broader data generated by DeFi.
In my opinion, the AI Agent will also create a new narrative miracle that may even surpass the DeFi narrative, with an imagination space of 200B, 500B? Stop always thinking about the new DeFi Summer 2.0, please keep up with the current AI Agent Summer narrative trend, don't fall behind.
2) Based on this logic, let's take a look at the "chaos" in the current AI Agent market:
1. The community battles and the competition for the top spot among AI MEME such as $GOAT, $FARTCOIN, $ACT;
2. The disputes over AI Agent framework standards such as $VIRTUAL and $AI16Z;
3. The disputes over derivative infra such as asset issuance and circulation like $VVAIFU and $GRIFFAIN;
4. The disputes over single AI Agent applications such as $AIXBT, $AVA, $BULLY, etc. You will find that they are all still too early, and at least the various lending platforms, derivatives, yield farms, and governance tokens that appeared in DeFi had the basic execution framework and standards provided by Ethereum, while the AI Agent ecosystem doesn't even have dedicated infra conditions yet. From the perspective of ecosystem plasticity, the industry narrative opportunities brought by AI Agent are much greater than DeFi.
In other words, this chaos is not chaotic. If you are optimistic about the development of the AI Agent narrative, for each sector, as long as the assets have reached a certain market value and have a corresponding user base, they are quality assets before the massive AI Agent narrative explosion, just like the assets like YFI, CRV, UNI, DYDX, etc. that have reached hundreds of billions of FDV.
Of course, confidence does not mean you can mess around, don't forget that in addition to the "big aunt", there are also "second aunt" pseudo-value assets that are always stealthily invading your wallet with a more tempting but long-term toxic posture.
3) Because it is indeed still the beginning of the narrative, there is no reason to persuade everyone not to participate in the AI MEME that is clearly manipulated by the conspiracy group, after all, no one knows how much wealth effect an early track can unleash, and the main ones that seem more valuable and have landing frameworks and standards may also face the possibility of being overtaken by competitors at any time.
In short, it is difficult to give a clear Alpha mining logic. I can only share a personal research logic for your reference:
1. For AI MEME, only consider the "leader coins" like $GOAT that have a narrative pioneer nature, without logic, if you have to say one, it's just like the consensus coin Bitcoin came first, then Ethereum-like smart contract technology delivery coins were born. An early MEME in a track, although the speculative attribute is the main, its role in educating the market and cultivating user cognition cannot be ignored, just like DOGE to the popularization of cryptocurrencies.
2. AI Agent infra is very important, and it is undervalued in the long run, such as $ELIZA, an early framework with rich Github open source libraries and very broad application coverage, although it is indeed very early and may be siphoned off by other stronger framework standards at any time, but its absolute advantage of open source sharing and first-mover advantage is the barrier, and frameworks that are better than it will most likely be on top of it, which may affect its growth height, but will not eliminate it.
We treat ELIZA as the EVM of the AI Agent era, and there will certainly be EVM++, EVM Compatible and other new frameworks to supplement it.
3. For AI Agent asset issuance, custody, and trading, it is still at the MEME-ized asset issuance narrative level, and we need to lock in the platform value rather than be misled by the "junk assets" on the platform.
The logic is simple, the essence of AI Agent is the process of AI scenario value landing based on Crypto incentive mechanism, and the early infra, applications, protocol frameworks, etc. are not yet mature, how could there be so many AIXBT-level super applications born? What can the convenience of coin issuance bring? Understand it? In the end, it's just a bubble trap to create heat for assets like VIRTUAL and VVAIFU.
Therefore, don't chase AI Agent super applications too much, unless you have absolute information asymmetry, otherwise by the time you see the market value rush in, the cost performance will not be high, while locking in innovative platform infra is different.
4. There is still a vast blank space in the construction of AI Agent infra, for example, the early framework like ELIZA has only solved the problem of LLM large model and AI Agent dialogue mechanism, and has been applied to scenarios like Twitter and Discord, but it is still more about the matchmaking of web2 information, when will there be a version of ELIZA++ that can connect the ELIZA framework and web3 trading scenarios based on the public chain paradigm, which is worth looking forward to.
Also, platforms like Virtual and VVAIFU can quickly issue assets, but they still lack a lot in the direction of decentralized asset custody, AMM-style intentional trading, etc. When will the AI Agent+TEE private key management method discussed earlier mature? Can the asset issuance platform extend new gameplay in trading, and have more interesting trading gameplay and incentive models?
Also, can there be some chains that build interaction standards for AI Agent, becoming the Cosmos of the AI Agent era, providing standard interoperability capabilities? Or some chains that build permanent Memory modular storage for AI Agent, to provide the necessary DA capabilities for AI Agent? There are also some AI Agent visualization tools, execution engines, modular combination encapsulation services, etc.
With these technical and market-driven supporting infra coming out, will you still be anxiously guarding a bunch of MEME that you don't understand?
That's all. As for where the various layer1, high-performance chains, cross-chain infra, chain abstraction, DA composite chains, layer2, reStaking and other well-established infrastructure paths go in the past based on the smart contract paradigm, in addition to the original infra landing application PMF delivery realization problem, a breakthrough point is the new concept of "riding on the AI Agent narrative".
So, which chain can stand out to provide some communication protocols, DA, application development and other service capabilities for AI Agent, is worth watching. Of course, there must be some chains that are purely riding on the concept, but they are still better than the chains that are stuck in the old ways.
In any case, please lock in the AI Agent track and welcome the arrival of this epic bull market main wave.
