Odaily星球日报讯 由 Andrew Hollenhorst 领导的花旗经济学家团队表示，宽松的劳动力市场将减轻服务业的通胀压力，全球状况疲软将抑制商品价格。这将导致美联储采取激进的行，预计在明年 7 月之前的每次会议都会降息 25 个基点，使联邦基金利率降至 3%至 3.25%之间。这远低于市场预期，后者预计届时联邦基金利率将达到 4%左右。（金十）

花旗：预计美联储明年7月之前每次会议都会降息25个基点

Odaily Odaily News: A team of Citi economists led by Andrew Hollenhorst said that a loose labor market will reduce inflationary pressures in the service sector, and weak global conditions will curb commodity prices. This will lead to aggressive actions by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each meeting before July next year, bringing the federal funds rate to between 3% and 3.25%. This is far below market expectations, which expect the federal funds rate to be around 4% by then. (Jinshi)

Citigroup: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each meeting before July next year

Odaily Odaily News reports that in the last interest rate decision of 2024, the European Central Bank will lower the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%, the third consecutive meeting with a 25 basis point rate cut, in line with market expectations; a cumulative 100 basis point rate cut for the year. (<金十>)

The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected

Odaily reported that economists at BNP Paribas wrote that Federal Reserve officials may find it difficult to "formulate and discuss monetary policy without getting embroiled in a debate about the potential economic policies of President-elect Trump." They expect the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points next week, as the market has priced in. They added that Fed Chair Powell "may use the press conference to provide options for a pause in further monetary easing." They expect he will not directly comment on Trump's policies, "but the FOMC will set policies consistent with managing the risk of high inflation," the economists said. (Jinshi)

BNP Paribas: Fed will formulate policy taking into account inflation risks

Odaily reports that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits continued to increase at the end of November compared to the beginning of the year, as labor demand has cooled. The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that the number of initial jobless claims increased by 17,000 in the week ending December 7, seasonally adjusted to 242,000. Economists had previously forecast that initial jobless claims would be only 220,000 last week. The jump in initial jobless claims last week may reflect volatility after the Thanksgiving holiday and may not signal a sudden change in the job market. Initial jobless claims may continue to fluctuate in the coming weeks, making it difficult to get a clear read on the job market. According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping current interest rates unchanged in December has risen slightly to 3.3%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut has fallen slightly to 96.7%.

U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December fell slightly to 96.7%