VanEck, an asset management company that has launched multiple cryptocurrency ETFs, posted its predictions for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025 on the X platform today (14th). The following summarizes the key points of VanEck's 10 Crypto Predictions for 2025:
1. The crypto bull market reached a mid-cycle peak in the first quarter and set a new high in the fourth quarter.
The report believes the crypto bull market will continue until 2025, reaching its first peak in the first quarter, with the cycle's peak forecasting a BTC value of around $180,000 and Ethereum (ETH) price exceeding $6,000. Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI) may each exceed $500 and $10, respectively.
After the first peak, BTC is expected to see a 30% pullback, and as the market consolidates during the summer, Altcoins are expected to face a decline of up to 60%. A recovery may occur in the fall, with the major coins regaining momentum and recovering to their previous all-time highs by the end of the year.
Further reading: Wall Street's Bernstein: Bitcoin will replace gold within 10 years, reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025
2. The United States embraces Bitcoin through strategic reserves and increases the adoption of cryptocurrencies
- Cryptocurrency ETFs: Under the leadership of the crypto-friendly SEC chairman, several new cryptocurrency spot ETFs will be approved, including an ETF for Solana, an Ethereum ETF that will include staking, and spot ETFs for both Ethereum and Bitcoin that will allow physical creation and redemption.
- SEC or Congress to repeal the current SEC-mandated accounting regulation SAB 121: This will pave the way for banks and brokers to custody spot cryptocurrencies, further integrating digital assets into traditional financial infrastructure.
- The federal government or at least one U.S. state (possibly Pennsylvania, Florida, or Texas) will establish a Bitcoin reserve.
- Sovereign nation Bitcoin mining: With the growth in adoption by BRICS countries, the number of countries mining Bitcoin using government resources is expected to reach double digits (currently 7); the U.S. share of global mining hashrate will increase from 28% in 2024 to 35% by the end of 2025.
- Corporate Bitcoin holdings are expected to surge 43%: The number of publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets will rise from the current 68 to over 100; the total Bitcoin held by private and public companies (currently 765,000 BTC) will exceed Satoshi's 1 million BTC next year. Corporate Bitcoin holdings will grow at an astonishing rate of 43% over the next year.
3. Tokenized securities value exceeds $50 billion
Tokenized securities grew 61% in 2024 to reach $12 billion, but most of the value is on permissioned chains. We believe that 2025 will be a breakthrough year for launching tokenized securities on open-source blockchains as entities like the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) explore bridging public and private blockchains. We also predict that Coinbase will tokenize the COIN stock and deploy it on its BASE blockchain.
4. Stablecoin daily settlement volume reaches $300 billion
Stablecoins are poised to fundamentally transform payments, with daily settlement volume expected to reach $300 billion by the end of 2025, doubling the current daily volume of around $100 billion. At this level, stablecoins will handle transactions equivalent to 5% of DTCC's daily trading volume. This surge, following 180% growth in 2024, will be driven by global commerce, remittances, and integration with major tech and payment networks (Visa, Mastercard).
5. On-chain active AI agents surpass 1 million
1 million new AI agents will emerge. These agents will become digital workers, autonomously representing users to execute tasks or make decisions, such as managing investments, online community management, and playing online games. As these AI agents expand from DeFi to social media, gaming, and consumer applications in 2025, their on-chain activity is expected to skyrocket.
6. Bitcoin L2 total value locked (TVL) reaches 100,000 BTC
Bitcoin L2 solutions experienced explosive growth in 2024, with TVL exceeding 30,000 BTC, a 600% increase year-to-date, valued at around $30 billion. In 2025, the TVL will grow to 100,000 BTC.
This rapid growth reflects a strong demand from Bitcoin holders seeking yield-generating and broader asset utility. As chain abstraction technology and Bitcoin L2 mature into end-user-ready products, Bitcoin will also become an integral part of DeFi.
7. Ethereum blob space generates $1 billion in fees
Ethereum's blob space will generate over $1 billion in fees, driven by the explosive adoption of Layer2, Rollup optimizations, and high-fee use cases like tokenized assets and enterprise applications.
This growth will solidify Ethereum's role as the ultimate settlement layer for Dapps, while also enhancing its ability to capture value from the rapidly expanding L2 ecosystem. Ethereum's Blob Space will scale the network and serve as a critical revenue source, balancing the economics between the mainnet and L2s.
8. DeFi reaches new highs, with DEX trading volume of $4 trillion and TVL of $200 billion
Driven by AI-related tokens, consumer-facing dApps, and tokenized assets that drive liquidity and adoption, DeFi will reach new highs, with DEX trading volume reaching $4 trillion, accounting for 20% of CEX spot trading volume; TVL will rebound to $200 billion, reflecting the growing demand for DeFi infrastructure in the evolving digital economy.
9. The NFT market rebounds, with trading volume reaching $30 billion
After a decline in NFT trading volume in 2024, we expect a rebound to $30 billion in 2025, around 55% of the 2021 peak level.
10. DApp tokens narrow the return gap with L1 tokens
By 2024, Layer1 public chain tokens have outperformed dApp tokens by about 2x in token returns, but the launch of innovative dApps in the AI and decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) space is expected to narrow the token performance gap.
