VanEck predicts a "double peak" to appear in 2025, with Bitcoin reaching $180,000 and Ethereum reaching $6,000 during the price surge before the summer.
VanEck announces 10 predictions about the crypto market in 2025. Image: U.Today
Leading asset management firm VanEck has just released its 2025 forecast report, emphasizing major changes in the crypto industry. From the two-peak Bull market cycle to key legal turning points and the wave of large institutional adoption, VanEck believes 2025 will be a time of reshaping the role of digital assets in the global financial economy.
VanEck 🤝10 Crypto Predictions for 2025
— VanEck (@vaneck_us) December 13, 2024
Prediction #1: Crypto bull market hits a medium-term peak in Q1, sets new highs in Q4. We project Bitcoin to be valued at around $180,000, Ethereum to trade above $6,000, Solana to exceed $500, and Sui to surpass $10.
1/ Price Outlook
VanEck forecasts a two-peak Bull market cycle in 2025. In the early stage, the market will reach a medium-term peak in Q1, with Bitcoin (BTC) potentially reaching $180,000 and Ethereum (ETH) touching $6,000. Other projects like Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI) are also expected to reach $500 and $10 respectively.
Subsequently, the market will undergo a correction in the middle of the year. Bitcoin is expected to drop 30%, while altcoins may plunge 60% during the summer.
The market will recover in the fall and "break through the roof" by the end of the year, potentially surpassing the previous all-time highs for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
2/ The US Government "Wings" Bitcoin
VanEck believes that the United States, especially under the Presidency of Donald Trump, will create a major breakthrough for Bitcoin.
The Trump administration is expected to drive the crypto market with friendly policies, removing previous restrictions, and positioning Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
The SEC or CFTC may approve new ETP products for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, while also allowing crypto custodian banks, helping digital assets integrate more deeply into traditional finance.
The US government or states like Pennsylvania, Florida, and Texas may establish Bitcoin reserve funds, serving as both a financial risk management tool and attracting investment and innovation.
At the same time, the US's global Bitcoin mining market share could increase to 35%, thanks to cheap energy sources and a transparent legal environment.
In a clear legal context, the US is expected to attract more crypto talent, increasing the global share of US-based crypto developers from 19% to 25%.
On the other hand, VanEck also forecasts an increase in the amount of Bitcoin held by public and private companies. Specifically, the total Bitcoin holdings of these companies could increase by 43%, exceeding 1.1 million BTC, larger than the amount held by Satoshi Nakamoto.
3/ Tokenized Securities - A New Trend in Finance
VanEck believes that tokenized securities will exceed $50 billion by 2025. Blockchain will help simplify the process of issuing stocks and bonds, driving transparency and efficiency.
VanEck predicts that institutions like DTCC will support the flexible conversion of tokenized assets between public blockchains and private infrastructure, while also establishing AML/KYC standards for on-chain investors.
Additionally, a breakthrough could occur with Coinbase tokenizing its COIN stock and deploying it on its BASE blockchain.
4/ Daily Stablecoin Trading Volume Reaches $300 Billion
Stablecoins will "break free" from their limited role in crypto trading to become an indispensable part of global commerce. By the end of 2025, stablecoins are expected to process $300 billion in daily transactions, accounting for around 5% of DTCC's trading volume, up from around $100 billion per day in November 2024.
In addition to trading, the remittance market will also explode. For example, stablecoin transactions between the US and Mexico could increase fivefold, from $80 million to $400 million per month, thanks to the speed, cost savings, and growing trust from millions of users who see stablecoins not as an experiment, but as a practical tool. Stablecoins are the "Trojan horse" for blockchain adoption.
5/ On-Chain Activity of AI Agents "Waves"
AI agents, specialized AI bots that help users achieve goals like optimizing profits or enhancing social media engagement, will become a major trend in 2025.
Although AI agents currently focus mainly on the DeFi field, they have great potential to go beyond financial activities, such as becoming social media influencers, game characters, or interactive assistants in consumer applications. Agents like Bixby and Terminal of Truths have already amassed large followings on X. It is forecast that by 2025, the number of AI agents will "storm" even more.
6/ Bitcoin Layer-2 TVL surges
The TVL of Bitcoin L2 has increased by 600% since the beginning of the year, reaching around $3 billion. There are currently more than 75 Bitcoin L2 projects under development.
Bitcoin can be transferred from the base blockchain to smart contract platforms, but they still rely on third-party systems that are vulnerable to attacks and lack security. Bitcoin L2 solutions solve this problem by integrating directly with Bitcoin's base layer, reducing dependence on centralized intermediaries, thereby enhancing security and decentralization.
7/ Ethereum Blob generates $1 billion in transaction fees
According to a VanEck report, Ethereum will continue to play a crucial role as a settlement layer, with revenue from blob space fees expected to reach $1 billion by the end of the year. This growth is driven by Layer-2 rollup solutions and high-value applications like tokenized securities.
8/ DeFi "blooms", TVL exceeds $200 billion
Although trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) has reached record highs, both in absolute value and compared to centralized exchanges (CEXs), the total value locked (TVL) of decentralized finance (DeFi) is still 24% lower than its previous peak.
VanEck forecasts that DEX trading volume will surpass $4 trillion in 2025, accounting for 20% of CEX spot trading volume, driven by the explosion of AI-related tokens and consumer-oriented dApps.
Additionally, the increase in tokenized securities and high-value assets will drive the development of DeFi, providing new liquidity and expanding utility. Therefore, VanEck is confident that the TVL of the DeFi sector will recover to over $200 billion by the end of the year.
9/ The NFT market is recovering
After a severe downturn, NFT trading volume has decreased by 39% since 2023 and 84% compared to 2022. VanEck believes the NFT market will recover, with trading volume reaching $30 billion in 2025.
This thesis is supported by the growing cultural significance of prominent collections like CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club. Additionally, creative projects like Pudgy Penguins are transitioning into consumer brands, helping to make NFTs more mainstream.
10/ dApp tokens narrow the gap with Layer-1 tokens
A prominent theme of the 2024 bull market is the clear outperformance of Layer-1 tokens over decentralized application (dApp) tokens.
However, VanEck predicts that this trend will change by the end of 2024 as a wave of new dApps launch, bringing innovative and useful products, thereby increasing the value of their tokens. Among the notable trends, VanEck sees artificial intelligence (AI) as a promising area for dApp innovation.
Additionally, Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN) projects also have great potential to attract investor and user attention, contributing to the rebalancing of performance between L1 and dApp tokens.
In conclusion, VanEck believes that 2025 will witness the convergence of legal progress, technological innovation, and institutional participation, shaping the future of digital assets. With these changes, crypto will not only be an investment field but also an integral part of global finance and mainstream culture. In summary, 2025 promises to be a year of explosive growth and transformative change for the crypto market!
Compiled by Coin68
