Odaily星球日报讯 在本周一系列喜忧参半的数据公布后，掉期交易员们减少了对美联储宽松政策路径的押注。本周道指累计下跌 1.82%，标普 500 指数下跌 0.64%止步三周连涨，纳指上涨 0.34%。比特币连涨七周，创 2021 年以来的最长连涨周期。2024 年最后一个重要的货币政策周将吸引投资者的注意力。据统计，到下周五收盘时占全球经济五分之二的至少 22 家央行将确定借贷成本，其结果很可能会凸显出，随着决策者对未来一年的不同风险进行权衡，宽松政策的势头现在看起来越来越不平衡，以下是新的一周里市场将重点关注的要点： 周一 15：30，欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话； 周二 04：45，加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆发表讲话； 周四 03：00，美联储公布利率决议和经济预期摘要； 周四 03：30，美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会； 周四（具体时间待定），日本央行公布利率决议； 周四 14：30，日本央行行长植田和男召开货币政策新闻发布会； 周四 21：30，美国第三季度实际 GDP 年化季率修正值、美国第三季度实际个人消费支出季率初值、美国 12 月费城联储制造业指数。 值得一提的是，美联储首选的基本通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）将于下周五公布，据经济学家预测，周五公布的 11 月份 PCE（不包括食品和能源）可能会上涨 0.2%，这是三个月以来的最小涨幅，这份报告还将显示消费者支出和收入的稳健增长，表明经济具有韧性。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 在本周一系列喜忧参半的数据公布后，掉期交易员们减少了对美联储宽松政策路径的押注。本周道指累计下跌 1.82%，标普 500 指数下跌 0.64%止步三周连涨，纳指上涨 0.34%。比特币连涨七周，创 2021 年以来的最长连涨周期。2024 年最后一个重要的货币政策周将吸引投资者的注意力。据统计，到下周五收盘时占全球经济五分之二的至少 22 家央行将确定借贷成本，其结果很可能会凸显出，随着决策者对未来一年的不同风险进行权衡，宽松政策的势头现在看起来越来越不平衡，以下是新的一周里市场将重点关注的要点：周一 15：30，欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话；周二 04：45，加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆发表讲话；周四 03：00，美联储公布利率决议和经济预期摘要；周四 03：30，美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会；周四（具体时间待定），日本央行公布利率决议；周四 14：30，日本央行行长植田和男召开货币政策新闻发布会；周四 21：30，美国第三季度实际 GDP 年化季率修正值、美国第三季度实际个人消费支出季率初值、美国 12 月费城联储制造业指数。值得一提的是，美联储首选的基本通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）将于下周五公布，据经济学家预测，周五公布的 11 月份 PCE（不包括食品和能源）可能会上涨 0.2%，这是三个月以来的最小涨幅，这份报告还将显示消费者支出和收入的稳健增长，表明经济具有韧性。（金十）

下周宏观展望：美联储12月降息或无悬念

Odaily Odaily report: After a mixed series of data releases this week, swap traders have reduced their bets on the Federal Reserve's path to easing policy. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.82% cumulatively, the S&P 500 index fell 0.64% ending a three-week winning streak, and the Nasdaq rose 0.34%. Bitcoin has risen for seven consecutive weeks, marking the longest winning streak since 2021. The final important monetary policy week of 2024 will attract investors' attention. According to statistics, by next Friday's close, at least 22 central banks representing two-fifths of the global economy will set borrowing costs, the results of which are likely to highlight that as policymakers weigh different risks for the coming year, the momentum of easing policy now appears increasingly unbalanced. The key points that the market will focus on in the new week are as follows: Monday 15:30, ECB President Lagarde speaks; Tuesday 04:45, Bank of Canada Governor MacLem speaks; Thursday 03:00, the Fed releases its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary; Thursday 03:30, Fed Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference; Thursday (time to be determined), the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision; Thursday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda holds a monetary policy press conference; Thursday 21:30, US Q3 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter revision, US Q3 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US December Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. It is worth mentioning that the Fed's preferred core inflation indicator - the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) - will be released next Friday, and according to economists' forecasts, the November PCE (excluding food and energy) to be released on Friday may rise 0.2%, the smallest increase in three months, and this report will also show robust growth in consumer spending and income, indicating the economy's resilience.

Odaily reports that after a mixed set of data released earlier this week, swap traders have reduced their bets on the Federal Reserve's dovish policy path. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.82% cumulatively, the S&P 500 index fell 0.64% ending a three-week winning streak, and the Nasdaq rose 0.34%. Bitcoin has risen for seven consecutive weeks, marking the longest winning streak since 2021. The final important monetary policy week of 2024 will attract investors' attention. According to statistics, by next Friday's close, at least 22 central banks representing two-fifths of the global economy will set borrowing costs, the results of which are likely to highlight that as policymakers weigh different risks for the coming year, the momentum of accommodative policy now appears increasingly unbalanced. The key events in the new week are: Monday 15:30, ECB President Lagarde speaks; Tuesday 04:45, Bank of Canada Governor MacLem speaks; Thursday 03:00, the Fed releases its interest rate decision and economic projections summary; Thursday 03:30, Fed Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference; Thursday (time TBD), the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision; Thursday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda holds a monetary policy press conference; Thursday 21:30, US Q3 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter revision, US Q3 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US December Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. It is worth noting that the Fed's preferred core inflation gauge - the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) - will be released next Friday, and economists forecast that the November PCE (excluding food and energy) could rise 0.2%, the smallest increase in three months, and the report will also show robust growth in consumer spending and income, indicating the economy's resilience.

Macroeconomic outlook for next week: The Fed’s December rate cut may be a foregone conclusion

Odaily reported that economists at BNP Paribas wrote that Federal Reserve officials may find it difficult to "formulate and discuss monetary policy without getting embroiled in a debate about the potential economic policies of President-elect Trump." They expect the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points next week, as the market has priced in. They added that Fed Chair Powell "may use the press conference to provide options for a pause in further monetary easing." They expect he will not directly comment on Trump's policies, "but the FOMC will set policies consistent with managing the risk of high inflation," the economists said. (Jinshi)

BNP Paribas: Fed will formulate policy taking into account inflation risks

Odaily reports that according to several Japanese media reports, the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Sources familiar with the matter said that the Bank of Japan's policymakers believe that while the trends in the Japanese economy and prices are in line with expectations, they should closely monitor wage trends in Japan and the global economy. The above-mentioned sources said that decision-makers are therefore unlikely to raise interest rates at the meetings on Wednesday and Thursday next week, unless there is a risk of a significant yen depreciation, which would push up import prices. The last time the Bank of Japan's decision-makers voted to raise the target for the short-term policy interest rate to 0.25% was at a meeting in July. As the December meeting approaches, there is growing concern that with the US President-elect Trump's promise to raise tariffs, the profitability of Japanese companies, especially exporters, will deteriorate. Sources said that some Bank of Japan officials said it was time to raise interest rates, but most believe the central bank should not act hastily.

Japanese media: Bank of Japan may keep interest rates unchanged next week

Here is the English translation of the text, with the content within <> retained as is:

Although the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has repeatedly emphasized this year that inflation control has been effective and the door to rate cuts has gradually opened, due to labor market pressure, potential economic policies after Trump's inauguration, the accumulation of US stock market bubbles, and the instability of the global political and economic situation, many experts still warn that the US economy may face recession risks next year.

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