Master Ye Talks About Hot Topics:
The new week has just begun, and early BTC has hit a new all-time high again, the market sentiment is boiling, but every new high, there are always people worried about a correction. In fact, this worry is more of a psychological effect, after all, it is still the FOMO time in Asia, the real concerns need to wait until the US stock market opens in the evening to see the changes in the market.
Master Ye will briefly talk about the current market logic today: $MSTR has been included in the Nasdaq 100, and institutional funds continue to increase their positions, which undoubtedly injects more confidence into the market. In addition, the premium of CME futures is still significantly higher than the spot market, which indicates that large funds are much more optimistic about the future than ordinary retail investors.
If there is anything to be wary of, it will have to wait until the Fed's interest rate decision meeting on December 19, especially the dot plot for 2025 - whether the rate cut expectations can exceed 2 to 4 times, which will have a significant impact on the market.
As for the correction, there is really no need to over-interpret it. Wasn't last week's so-called correction directly slapped in the face by a new high in less than a week? The trend is the core force that dominates the price, as long as the trend is not broken, the correction is actually an opportunity to deploy.
Currently, a rate cut in December is already a high probability event, and the rate cut itself is a clear positive. For this round of bull market, the short-term fluctuations cannot change the overall upward structure.
Many people are also afraid of 100k, but you should know that this is just a new starting point. Some KOLs say it will fluctuate for half a year like the 73k in the first half of the year, which is a bit like clinging to the boat.
Master Ye believes that the real bull market will be fast-paced and highly volatile, and there will not be so much time to dwell on it. There are less than 11 months left in the halving cycle, if it still needs to fluctuate for half a year, then the logic of the bull market will no longer exist.
In the short term, if there is no obvious negative news this week, the ultimate low point of BTC may be around 99,255, which is the position of the medium-term layout last week. Even if there is an unexpected negative news, from a technical perspective, Master Ye personally believes that the ultimate may not exceed 95,555.
On the contrary, if the rate cut is implemented, the Fed releases dovish signals, and the Christmas consumption boom and other positive factors are superimposed, it may further push up the price. The biggest taboo in a bull market is blind shorting, especially when there is no clear top signal, you are afraid of reaching 100k, and you panic when it drops 3%, and you miss the pump and follow the trend to short.
Such a mentality will only make you miss more opportunities. The overall trend is still bullish, and the correction is just a temporary stop at the station, the real risk is not catching the train, not the ups and downs of the correction.
Master Ye Looks at the Trend:
BTC broke through the upper edge of the ascending triangle and refreshed its high again, currently in a strong rebound state. In the overbought area, it is recommended to take profit on part of the position, and re-enter the market when it corrects, accumulate earnings, and avoid chasing highs!
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: 104,500
Second Resistance: 106,700
Support Levels:
First Support: 104,500
Second Support: 103,400
Recommendation for Today:
If the 104K~105K area consolidates, it may form a trading range, and the probability of a rebound will increase. If it corrects, you can pay attention to the 20/60/120 day moving averages and enter the market in batches. Avoid chasing highs, wait for the correction to stabilize before deploying. The market is easy to see profit-taking at high levels, so be patient and wait for the correction opportunity!
Master Ye's Wave Deployment on 12.16:
Long Entry: 103,400-103,800 area, light position, Target: 105,500-106,700
Short Entry: Not Considered
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