Introduction
Bitcoin (BTC) has been in the spotlight recently, with a cumulative gain of over 170% since the beginning of the year, and last week it even broke its historical high at $106,569. This strong performance has sparked market discussions: Is there a possibility for Bitcoin to further reach $110,000? The upcoming FOMC meeting this week will undoubtedly be an important catalyst.
Market Background: Volatility and Opportunities Coexist
Last week, the crypto market experienced violent fluctuations, with the total market capitalization undergoing a significant adjustment in a short period of time, ultimately stabilizing at $3.65 trillion. Meanwhile, market sentiment has cooled down, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index falling from "Extreme Greed" to "Greed". Among them, Bitcoin quickly rebounded after a substantial correction, laying the foundation for further upside.
Key events include:
- Trump's Policy Stance
President-elect Trump reiterated his plan to push for a Bitcoin strategic reserve program and promised to strengthen the United States' global leadership in the cryptocurrency field. This news boosted market sentiment last week and provided important support for Bitcoin's price.
- Favorable Macroeconomic Environment
The November CPI data released by the U.S. Bureau of Statistics met market expectations, paving the way for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this month. CME data shows that the market's expectation for a rate cut has reached 97.1%, which will significantly improve the liquidity environment for risk assets.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: A Delicate Balance of Bull and Bear Forces
Short-term: Increased Volatility, Focus on Key Support
•Short-term Support: $104,000
•Short-term Resistance: $106,533 (historical high)
Bitcoin's trading volume has remained high recently, indicating extremely high market activity. If the price continues to retest the $104,000-$104,500 range after breaking above $105,000, it may provide a good entry opportunity for the bulls.
Medium-term: Stable Trend, Aiming for $110,000
•Key Resistance: $108,000 and $110,000
Bitcoin has formed a stable upward trend on the 4-hour chart. If it can firmly hold above $106,000, the bulls may further push the price towards $110,000.
Long-term: Uptrend Intact, Correction Risks Remain
•Major Support: $100,000 and $104,000
Although Bitcoin's overall trend is positive, investors should be wary of the risk of technical corrections in the short term, as oscillators (such as RSI) are approaching overbought levels.
Analysis of Bull and Bear Views
Bullish Factors
- Macroeconomic Support
The Fed's potential rate cut will release more liquidity, directly benefiting crypto assets.
- Institutional Capital Inflows
Last week, the cumulative net inflow to U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $2.167 billion, indicating strong confidence from institutional investors.
- Policy Boost to Confidence
Trump's stance has reinforced the market's optimistic expectations for U.S. cryptocurrency policy.
Bearish Factors
- Risk of Profit-taking at High Levels
Bitcoin's recent rapid gains may lead to short-term profit-taking pressure.
- Global Market Uncertainties
If the Fed's interest rate policy falls short of expectations, it may trigger a reversal in market sentiment.
- Overbought Technical Indicators
The RSI and Stochastic indicators suggest that Bitcoin is approaching overbought territory, increasing the probability of a short-term correction.
Conclusion: Key Catalysts Ahead, Prudent Positioning is Needed
Bitcoin is currently oscillating in the $105,000-$106,000 range, and the upcoming FOMC meeting this week will provide important clues for the market direction. If the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points as expected, Bitcoin may embark on a new round of uptrend, aiming for $110,000. However, investors need to be wary of the risk of corrections at high levels and plan their entry points accordingly.
Focus Points:
•December 18 FOMC meeting outcome
•Whether Bitcoin price breaks above the $108,000 resistance level
•Sustainability of trading volume and market sentiment
The market is constantly seeking a balance between opportunities and risks, and as investors, we need to remain calm and make prudent decisions.
The above content is from public market information and is for reference only, not constituting any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market carries high risks, and investments require caution.
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