Bitfinex: Bitcoin may reach the peak of the bull market in Q3-Q4 of 2025, with a price range of US$145,000 to US$189,000

today released the final issue of its 2024 weekly report, Bitfinex Alpha, which looks ahead to the market outlook for 2025. The report, based on data such as MVRV, NUPL and bull-bear market cycle indicators, indicates that the market is still in a bull market phase, but is far from reaching its euphoric peak.

Expected to reach a peak in Q3-Q4 next year

compared the price trend of in this cycle with the previous few cycles, with the deep green vertical lines in the figure representing the dates of past halving events. According to the forecast of the next halving date (2028), the market is currently at about 16.6% of this cycle, and the bright green area in the figure shows the price position of at the same stage in historical cycles; the red dots in the figure represent the time points when price hit new highs, clearly showing the growth trajectory of . According to the halving cycle trend, the market is currently in the middle of a bull market, and a correction may occur in Q1 2025. In addition, new highs are usually formed 5 to 7 months after the halving, and the subsequent cycle high is reached about 13 to 17 months after the halving, after which will experience a significant correction (usually 60 to 80%), forming the bottom of the next bear market. Looking at historical averages, the cycle high usually occurs about 450 days after the halving, which means that the high point of this cycle is expected to be around July 2025. However, stated that this cycle has its own unique characteristics. hit a new all-time high in March before the halving. The institution believes this is mainly due to the influx of new investors through ETFs, driving a surge in demand. In addition, the "distribution phase" in this cycle, where long-term holders are gradually reducing their positions and short-term holders are actively increasing their positions, has lasted longer than in previous cycles, which may be due to an increase in market supply. This extended distribution period has made the market's adjustment pace slower than in the previous few cycles. concluded:

The market may reach its peak around Q3 to Q4 2025.

Potential cycle top between $145,000 and $189,000

In the analysis of the price peak, used the "Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT)" and "4-Year Moving Average (MA)" to assist in predicting the potential market top. The details of the two indicators are as follows: 1) Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT): Measures the "heat" or "coldness" of the price relative to the historical average.

• BPT 2: Normal market level.
• BPT 6: Overheated bull market, indicating increased market activity.
• BPT 8: Top level, signaling potential market bubble or extreme prices.

2) 4-Year Moving Average (MA): The blue line represents the basic moving average of the long-term price cycle, used to identify the long-term trend of .

• +2 Sigma (green line): Approaching the overbought area, indicating increased demand and potential overvaluation of prices.
• +6 Sigma (orange line): Approaching the peak level, showing signs of extreme market conditions.
• +8 Sigma (red line): Historical high price area, often indicating the top of a market bubble.

General Trend:

• Bull Market: Prices reach BPT 6 and 8, reflecting overheating of the market, approaching the market high.
• Bear Market: Prices are usually below the 4-Year MA, with reduced market activity and a downward trend.

pointed out that based on the latest data, prices have stabilized above the 4-year moving average and broken through the BPT 2 level of $74,000, indicating increased market momentum and that the market is currently in the middle of a bull market cycle. This trend suggests that the market is poised to enter a stronger bull market phase, gradually emerging from the previous consolidation period. As the market officially enters the "price discovery" phase after the halving, Bitfinex estimates the cycle high based on the current BPT 6 and BPT 8 levels to be $145,000 and $189,000 respectively. Based on a comprehensive evaluation of multiple price and time models, the minimum target of $145,000 for this cycle is expected to be reached between Q2 2025 and Q1 2026. concluded that although there may be market volatility in Q1 2025, the overall trend remains bullish, supported by the push of ETFs, institutional adoption, and the rising status of as a global asset. However, as prices approach the cycle top, investors should remain vigilant and watch for signs of overbought conditions.