Odaily星球日报讯 华尔街分析师一致认为，美联储可能在本周的会议上暗示准备暂停降息。根据 Yardeni Research 的分析，美联储主席鲍威尔将利用会后的新闻发布会上向投资者传达下一个利率决定将是暂停降息的信息。Yardeni Research 表示：“自 9 月 18 日以来，在整整 100 个基点降息之后，我们预计鲍威尔将在 FOMC 会议后的新闻发布会上发出信号，表明美联储将暂时暂停进一步宽松。具有韧性和不断增强的经济是美联储可能会让 12 月的降息成为一段时间内最后一次降息的关键原因。”

分析：美联储明年或将延缓降息步伐

Odaily Odaily News: Wall Street analysts agree that the Federal Reserve may hint at a pause in rate cuts at this week&#39;s meeting. According to Yardeni Research, Fed Chairman Powell will use the post-meeting press conference to convey to investors that the next interest rate decision will be a pause in rate cuts. Yardeni Research said: &quot;After a full 100 basis points of rate cuts since September 18, we expect Powell to signal at the press conference after the FOMC meeting that the Fed will temporarily pause further easing. A resilient and strengthening economy is a key reason why the Fed may make the December rate cut the last one for some time.&quot;

Analysis: The Fed may slow down its rate cuts next year

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On December 15, Bitcoin extended its rally to seven consecutive weeks, marking the longest winning streak since 2021. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.82% cumulatively, the S&P 500 index fell 0.64% ending a three-week winning streak, while the Nasdaq rose 0.34%. Next week, as the last important monetary policy week of 2024, will attract investors' attention. The key events are as follows:

Monday 15:30, ECB President Lagarde to deliver a speech;
Tuesday 04:45, Bank of Canada Governor MacLem to deliver a speech;
Thursday 03:00, the Fed to release its interest rate decision and economic projections summary;
Thursday 03:30, Fed Chair Powell to hold a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday (time to be confirmed), the Bank of Japan to announce its interest rate decision;
Thursday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to hold a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 21:30, US Q3 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter revision, US Q3 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for December.

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, will be released next Friday. Economists forecast that the November PCE (excluding food and energy) to be published on Friday may rise 0.2%, the smallest increase in three months. This report will also show robust growth in consumer spending and income, indicating economic resilience. The US November retail sales data on Tuesday may also point to similar strong momentum.

According to the CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is 96%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged at 4.75%-5.00% is 4%.

Next week's macro outlook: The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision, and PCE data is coming

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On December 16, according to 4E monitoring, the S&P 500 ended its three-week rally last week, falling 0.64% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.82% for the week, marking its seventh consecutive trading day of decline; the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.34% for the week, reaching a record high of 20,000 points for the first time.

Bitcoin rose above $100,000 last week, setting the longest seven-week winning streak since 2021. The heat in the <Altcoin> market has cooled, with generally large pullbacks. For the week, Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $2.115 billion, Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of about $712.7 million, and the supply of <USDT> increased by $2.1 billion, indicating a continued positive sentiment. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has suddenly surged, breaking through the historical high to reach $106,648, and the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap have also risen by nearly 1% to 4%.

In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the US dollar index performed strongly last week, breaking above 107 on Friday and continuing to hit new two-week highs, rising nearly 1% for the week, the best weekly performance in a month, while non-US currencies fell across the board for the week. International oil prices surged across the board last week, driven by geopolitical tensions, ending a two-week losing streak, with US oil up more than 6% for the week and Brent oil up 4.54% for the week. Benefiting from market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, spot gold rose 0.56% for the week.

The most closely watched economic event this week is the FOMC meeting to be held on Wednesday, when the interest rate decision and quarterly economic forecast will be announced. The market has already fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, and the real focus is on clues about the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve. The market expects rate cuts next year to be more cautious and gradual, and there may even be a pause in rate cuts as early as January.

In addition, this week is also the last "Super Central Bank Week" of 2024, with as many as 25 central banks, including those of Japan, the UK and Sweden, holding policy meetings in the same week, and the release of some key central bank decisions may trigger market volatility, especially in the 24-hour non-stop foreign exchange and commodity markets.

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4E: The expectation of suspending interest rate cuts next year has caused setbacks in US stocks. This week, we will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting

Odaily reports that analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. While lower interest rates typically boost risk assets like Bitcoin, the comments and economic forecasts the Fed will make at the Wednesday meeting may reduce expectations for further rate cuts amid ongoing inflation concerns. Recent US CPI and PPI data have raised concerns about potential price pressures next year, especially given speculation around the economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump. Additionally, while macroeconomic events remain influential, QCP Capital analysts believe Bitcoin's recent rally has been primarily driven by market sentiment. (The Block)