This week, the Federal Reserve finally confirmed the "pivot" that the market has long been expecting, and the central bank's statement and updates to its economic forecasts this week had a huge impact on the market. Market participants currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 40 basis points by December 2025, and U.S. Treasury yields should rise in response.
VX: TTZS6308
Earlier this week, Bitcoin fell from its all-time high, and on Friday, Bitcoin continued its downward trend and briefly approached $95,000. Earlier, Bitcoin had just set a new all-time high of over $108,000, and this round of decline in the crypto market has had a greater impact on Altcoins such as Ethereum and Dogecoin. In addition, the U.S. exchange-traded fund (ETF) that directly invests in Bitcoin also ended a 15-day streak of capital inflows this week, setting a record $680 million in capital outflows, highlighting the shift in market sentiment.
Bitcoin is still at $96,000, so why have the Altcoins lost all their gains?
The answer lies in trading volume. Remember a few weeks ago, there were a few coins that had trading volumes higher than ETH or even BTC on the weekends? Take a look at their current trends, and I remember DOGE, PEPE, XRP, PNUT, ACT, and some others I can't recall. Look at their current trends, and you'll know where the money has gone - it's all been siphoned off. Where's the Altcoin season?
For Americans, trading crypto is all about BTC, as this fits the background of value investing. If you have to choose a few more, it might be RWA, as this can be valued. If you choose a few more, it might be the top public chains, as they can generate value. Most other sectors are just fleeting, and many are just fantasies of the people in the industry. The traditional market doesn't even look at them, and by the time they figure it out, it might be the next cycle. The real Altcoin season might present itself in a different form, certainly not a broad-based rally. Just look at the gain rankings this weekend - it's utterly dismal.
The weekend market volatility is still much smaller, so set good take-profit and stop-loss orders, and you don't even need to watch it. The Christmas holiday is coming up soon, and the overall market is likely to be relatively calm, with the main purpose being to trade leveraged contracts back and forth.
Due to the approaching Christmas holiday, the market next week will be relatively calm, but there are still some relatively influential data points. However, due to thin liquidity, market volatility may become quite large. The key points the market will focus on in the new week are:
Monday 23:00, US December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index;
Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 21.
For the US dollar, with the overall hawkish stance within the Federal Reserve, the dollar is not expected to easily lose the throne it has gained this year, although the low trading volume during the holiday period may cause some unnecessary volatility. Overall, if there is any market turmoil during the holiday period, it is more likely to impact the US stock and bond markets. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve is not welcomed on Wall Street, and as US Treasury yields continue to rise, the sell-off may intensify.
If BTC goes to $90,000 (which is unlikely), it will cause a large number of Altcoin liquidations, providing a very good buying opportunity.
If the Bitcoin structure breaks down, a large amount of buying pressure is expected to reappear around $90,000. In pure panic, it may even drop all the way to $85,000. The Altcoins will then completely collapse.
Suitable entry points for ETH would be $3,000, and for SOL $160.
Currently, most Altcoins in the market do not have an independent trend, and they are basically just following the movements of BTC. These coins should wait for BTC to firmly establish a new high before capital comes in to pump them, otherwise, even if they are pumped, it will be in vain as BTC can just retrace and drag them back down.
So now we can only wait for the market to confirm the trend, and then we can enter. We may miss out on a bit of the initial profits, but we have already secured profits by escaping the local top, and as long as it's not a straight-line pump of 30 points, we will still have an advantage when we enter.
In a bull market, many people are easily swayed by market fluctuations and miss opportunities, rushing to get in as soon as they see others' coins pumping, and wanting to switch positions as soon as their own coins don't pump, or wanting to do leveraged trading as soon as the volatility increases. This kind of behavior is very dangerous - many people who haven't experienced a bull market are clueless when it's pumping and clueless when it's dumping, leading to unstable emotions, unwilling to wait and always wanting to trade, even willing to lose money rather than wait. In the end, they lose all their money and become more disciplined.
These are some inevitable operations for newbies.
Although I can't let you all join my group and follow my operations to avoid these loss-making actions,
I still tell you from the experience of a veteran that opportunities are plenty, but you have to preserve your capital first.
Don't keep jumping in and out based on what this one or that one says, chasing the thrill, and end up losing your capital in the process.
If you're willing to follow Tuanzi's approach, that's fine too. At least I can guarantee you steady profits without losses.
Even if the information on the platform is delayed and not as timely as in the group, following along can still make you steady profits without problems.
