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Author: 0xWeilan
As a psychological barrier, the resistance effect of $100,000 depends on the strength of the holders. This week's trend shows that once the overall trend of capital and sentiment is formed, the breakthrough of the psychological barrier is just a matter of time.
After four consecutive weeks of upward movement, BTC fell first and then rose this week, opening at $101,400 and then falling to close at $104,447.76. After clearing the profit-taking dip to the 5-week moving average, it gradually moved up and finally broke through $104,000 on Sunday.
This week, the US released CPI and PPI data, which were in line with expectations and slightly negative, but the well-adjusted cryptocurrency market seems to have entered a "zero-risk" gradual upward phase with the support of continuous capital inflows.
Macroeconomic and Financial Data
This week, the US announced that the seasonally adjusted CPI in late November rose 2.7% year-on-year, the second consecutive month of increase, and 0.3% month-on-month, the largest increase since April.
After the CPI data was released, swap traders increased their bets on the Fed cutting rates by 87 basis points by the end of 2025. They expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points next week, and then cut rates twice more, each by 25 basis points, by 2025. This is one less cut than the 4 cuts suggested in the September quarterly dot plot.
The US stock market was mixed, with the Nasdaq up 0.34%, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 down 1.82% and 0.64% respectively. London gold rose slightly by 0.16%.
This week, the ECB raised interest rates by another 25 basis points, lowering the deposit rate from 3.25% to 3%, and hinted that rate cuts will continue.
In China, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China's Economic Work Conference stated that "more proactive and effective macro policies should be implemented to stabilize the real estate and stock markets", and the Central Economic Work Conference subsequently stated that "more proactive fiscal policies should be implemented, with an increase in the fiscal deficit ratio. Moderately loose monetary policies should be implemented, with timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts." This is the first time in 14 years that the Chinese government has reiterated a "moderately loose" monetary policy.
Looking at the outlook for various countries, in 2025, the US will face policy volatility and may face a resurgence of inflation and a slowdown in rate cuts; Europe and China's economic growth may continue to slow, and therefore they must adopt loose monetary policies to stimulate the weak economic growth.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
Although trading activity has slowed down with the approaching Christmas holiday, the cryptocurrency market has maintained relatively ample capital inflows. This week, BTC Spot ETF inflows were $2.174 billion, and stablecoin channel inflows were $3.768 billion, totaling $5.941 billion, down slightly from the previous week but still at a high level.
Selling
This week, long and short positions transferred a total of 268,581 BTC to exchanges, of which 256,826 were short positions and 11,755 were long positions, the second largest selling week since November.
The surging buying power, especially the capital absorption of the BTC Spot ETF channel, has absorbed the selling pressure. The balance of centralized exchanges decreased by 27,901 BTC over the week.
According to eMerge Engine of EMC Labs, the unrealized profits of short positions have fallen from the previous high of 33% to the bull market neutral level of 25%.
Especially, the selling of long positions, which is crucial for the cyclical stage, has been declining continuously, and the BTC price is expected to gradually rise above $100,000 with fluctuations.
Cycle Indicators
The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.875, indicating that the market is in an upward phase and in a vigorous upward state.
END
EMC Labs (Emergence Lab) was founded in April 2023 by crypto asset investors and data scientists. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, with industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competencies, committed to participating in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring well-being to humanity.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
