Master Ye Discusses the Hot Spots:
Followin' the Christmas holiday, although the market did not see the expected intense volatility, BTC remains firm around 99k, which is also a good signal. The Christmas market may have already ended, but Master Ye believes this does not mean the market's enthusiasm will immediately subside.
In fact, the market's fluctuations are likely to continue until around January 6th, especially after the US stock market opens tonight, although liquidity and trading volume will be much lower, this does not mean that the market's opportunities have disappeared.
Reviewin' the past two days, Master Ye saw that many KOLs are still discussing the possibility of BTC breaking through the 70,000s or 80,000s, and now BTC has broken through 99k, this change may surprise some people.
From the perspective of the trend, the market is not completely hyped up, but some investors have already begun to gradually accept the expectation that the Fed will only cut interest rates twice by 2025.
Judgin' from the market's reaction after Powell's speech, BTC stabilizing around 100k indicates that investors have psychologically prepared for a long-term hawkish policy. The core PCE data released before Christmas may have alleviated the market sentiment to some extent.
Before liquidity recovers, the market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate. In the short term, the performance of the US stock market after the opening tonight will be the key to determining the market's direction.
Although most institutional investors in the US are still in holiday mode today, the liquidity after the US stock market opens will be slightly better than during the holiday. So, faced with BTC that has already broken through 99k, how will US investors choose next?
Will they re-examine the market situation, muster the courage to continue long, or choose to hedge and short? The answer will be revealed soon. Moreover, the New Year's holiday is just around the corner, and the market sentiment in the next two days will be crucial.
As for the short-term trend, Master Ye personally believes that prediction has little meaning. Oh, right, just keep long; no, it's just a paper loss for now. As long as you confirm that the major trend has not changed, holding the position is still the right choice.
Additionally, from the turnover rate of BTC, it has already dropped by nearly half compared to Christmas Eve, which is also within Master Ye's expectations. Evidently, market liquidity has decreased, and early investors have not continued to participate in the turnover, but are in a wait-and-see state.
On the contrary, those retail investors who started to buy the dips around 92k are gradually withdrawing. The support from 95k to 100k remains as solid as a rock. In the short term, unless there is a substantive negative news, it is not recommended to short BTC.
Short-term fluctuations in a bull market are often of a needle-like nature, but the speed of the rebound is usually very fast. The current BTC trend should not need to doubt whether it is in a bull market, even if it is just BTC's bull market.
Although the decline in market liquidity has brought about a wait-and-see sentiment, the support from 95k to 100k has not changed. As long as there is no major negative news, the overall trend of the market is still bullish.
Short-term fluctuations may cause some investors to feel anxious, but for those who are optimistic about the major trend, the short-term adjustment is just the market's mischievous performance, and the ultimate trend will determine the direction of BTC.
Master Ye Looks at the Trend:
From the current technical perspective, an ascending triangle consolidation pattern has formed. If it stabilizes at 99K, further upside can be expected. The trend of continuously higher lows, and the repeated testing of resistance at the highs, if the selling pressure at the upper end is digested after multiple tests, a breakout can be expected in the short term; but attention should be paid to 100K as a strong resistance, and the selling pressure at this level should be watched out for.
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: 99,000
Second Resistance: 100,000
Support Levels:
First Support: 98,300
Second Support: 97,700
Recommendation for Today:
The current pattern is a form with a relatively high probability of an uptrend, but it is not completely without the possibility of a downside. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the support of the downward trend line and observe whether the pattern can be completed. If it breaks below the downward trend line, the pattern will be invalidated, and the view will turn to a short-term adjustment.
Based on the short-term upward trend line as the basis for operation, under the condition of continuously higher lows, focus on the opportunities for rebounds. Adjustments should be moderate, try not to fall below the key lows, and closely monitor the 20-day moving average at the 1-hour level!
Master Ye's Wave Prediction on 12.26:
Long Entry: 97,700-97,200 area, light position. If it pulls back to the 96,600 area, go long directly. Target: 98,300-99,000
Short Entry: 99,700-100,300 area, light position. Target: 99,000-98,300
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