Master Ye Talks About Hot Topics:
Today, let's first talk about the turnover rate of BTC in the past 24 hours, which is indeed ridiculously low, even lower than on Christmas Day. It seems that many American investors are still holed up at home drinking hot chocolate and haven't returned to the market.
Master Ye has said before that the holiday market is just a lack of liquidity, so don't take it too seriously. Sure enough, BTC has pulled back a bit, and the price has returned to the level before Christmas. The trend going forward is likely to have no major news, and it will probably fluctuate around the 95K range.
Why say that? Because there is no bearish news now, and there is no big volatility. The "old tune" about the number of rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 has almost been digested by the market. So Master Ye personally believes that unless some new surprises come out, a big drop is unlikely.
We are currently in the low liquidity period of the Christmas and New Year holidays, although the US stock market opened slightly more lively last night. But today is the last trading day of the week, and it just happens to coincide with the expiration of a large number of options.
The good news is that there are $4.2 billion in positions that may profit from this batch of expired options, but investors are more likely to choose to roll over rather than dump immediately. So this delivery will not have a big impact on the market.
Back to BTC itself, the low turnover rate basically doesn't put any pressure on the support level. Although the price has fallen from the high point, those short-term speculators who made money have basically all run away, and the remaining loss-making positions don't dare to move around. From the current data, the 95K-100K support level is still relatively firm, and there is no obvious sign of a breakdown in the short term.
Let's also talk about Ethereum. Although the ETF data on Christmas Eve was 70% less than on December 23, Ethereum still had net inflows! This completely outperforms BTC, which has had net outflows for the past three consecutive trading days. Ethereum has had net inflows for two consecutive days, which is really a "dark horse".
Especially for BlackRock's investors, their purchases are very stable, and they have even brought in Fidelity and crypto asset management companies to join in, directly taking down over 1,000 Ethereum. And even when selling the big shot Grayscale, they only reduced their holdings by 1,888 Ethereum, which can be described as "light-hearted".
What does this mean? It means that the market's focus is gradually shifting from BTC to Ethereum. Although Ethereum's price is still far from its historical high, the trend has shown that institutions and investors are more optimistic about it. If Ethereum can maintain this upward momentum, the "carnival season" of Altcoins may also be coming soon.
Master Ye Looks at the Trend:
BTC has not shown a clear rebound after the decline, and is still fluctuating within the box range, with a large amplitude. In the dense trading area, you can first refer to the box range and observe the breakthrough situation of the upper and lower rails, and adopt a trading strategy according to the direction of the breakthrough.
Since the moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, the overall trend is still biased towards downward. Under the expectation of a rebound, you should gradually observe whether the price is stabilizing above the moving averages to judge whether to switch to a rebound strategy.
Resistance Reference:
First Resistance: 96400
Second Resistance: 97300
Support Reference:
First Support: 95300
Second Support: 94800
Suggestions for Today:
If you trade directly after the breakthrough, the risk is relatively high. It is recommended to wait for the K-line to stabilize above the confirmed resistance level and form a stage-by-stage upward trend before entering the trade. The current market has not clearly defined a direction, and the box range fluctuation is relatively large, so it is recommended to flexibly adjust the long and short positions.
From a larger cycle, the market is still dominated by fluctuations; from a short-term perspective, you can pay attention to the opportunities for rebounds after stabilizing the support; and from a medium and long-term perspective, it is suitable to adopt a strategy of building positions in batches.
12.27 Master Ye's Swing Trading Preset:
Long Entry: 94200-94800 area, light position, Target: 96400-97300
Short Entry: 97300 light short, if it rises to 97700-98500 area, directly short, Target: 96400-95300
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