Conversation with trader Sa Bi Ge: I made 5,000 times profit after buying $MOODENG. How to capture Alpha through insider analysis of tokens?

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The following text is summarized from the Twitter Space series #Dialogue with Traders, hosted by FC, founding partner of SevenX Ventures, Twitter @FC_0X0

Guest: SaBiBro666, founder of CashCashBot, Twitter @SaBiBro666

SaBiBro666's Trading Journey: From Exchanges to On-chain Strategies

SaBiBro666, a pioneer in the field of on-chain data-driven trading. Born in Taiwan, he entered the cryptocurrency industry in 2017 and joined a mainland exchange in 2019, working in the listing department, focusing on on-chain data analysis and project due diligence (DD). This experience gave him a deep industry understanding and a solid foundation in data analysis.

In 2022, he chose to leave the exchange and start his own business. Initially, he focused on the development of NFT application projects. However, as the NFT market cooled, he quickly observed the rise of Memecoins and swiftly adjusted his strategy, concentrating on on-chain trading and data-driven investment decisions. He and his team developed various analysis tools and trading bots to monitor the movements of on-chain addresses and generate trading signals.

SaBiBro666's trading strategy has distinct features: it does not focus on narrative valuations, but rather on on-chain monitoring and strict profit-taking and stop-loss rules. He emphasizes that by setting clear profit-taking and stop-loss strategies, trading can be freed from the interference of subjective emotions.

He also points out that the trading logic needs to be constantly optimized. Initially, he focused on the trading behavior of on-chain smart money, then expanded his focus to team manipulation (conspiracy groups), and finally to the behavior of key market-making addresses for individual tokens. Through in-depth analysis of these on-chain activities, he continuously improves the accuracy of his trading decisions.

Currently, SaBiBro666's main holdings include BTC, ETH, and SOL, which form the cornerstone of his core investment portfolio. In addition, the recent outstanding performance of #Moodeng has become an important milestone for him: it achieved a 5,000x return in a short period. However, for SaBiBro666, the significance of $MOODENG goes beyond just the profits.

The true value of MOODENG lies in the validation of the effectiveness of his data-driven strategy. By tracking the on-chain behavior of MOODENG's market makers, he has proven the "follow the smart money" trading theory. This practical result not only enhances the credibility of his strategy but also provides valuable experience to support future trading decisions.

How to Use Data and Discipline to Ensure Winning Trades?

In the trading process, SaBiBro666 emphasizes the standardized "double your money, halve your losses" strategy, which is the core of his risk management. This strategy uses clear rules to avoid the interference of market emotions and has verified the feasibility of a positive expected value (EV) through mathematical models.

In trading, as long as the win rate is above 33%, positive EV can be achieved. For example:

• Profit-taking scenario: the asset doubles in value, and 100% of the profits are realized.
• Stop-loss scenario: the asset halves in value, and 50% of the capital is lost.

Based on the above assumptions, when the win rate reaches or exceeds 33%, the trader's long-term returns will show positive growth. SaBiBro666's strategy is based on probability, focusing on maintaining a stable mindset and avoiding being shaken by short-term market fluctuations.

At the same time, SaBiBro666's team has developed a series of tools, with data as the core, to provide users with in-depth insights into market hotspots and the behavior of market makers:

Token Insider Analysis (CashCash Bot)

Through big data, it analyzes the token's holding structure and address behavior. Its core functions include:

  • Identification of market maker behavior: filtering out addresses with transfer associations or collective trading characteristics, and classifying them as "gangs" or "market maker clusters".
  • Snapshot and trend analysis: qualitative and quantitative assessment of the token's holding concentration, identifying whether market makers are accumulating.
  • Behavior model optimization: based on the transfer behavior of addresses (such as the use of cross-chain bridges or mixers) and on-chain capital flow trends, forming accurate predictions of market maker operations.

FOMO CALL Signals

This is a real-time trading signal tool developed based on the team's database of thousands of smart money addresses. When a group of historically successful addresses collectively buy a token in a short period of time, FOMO CALL will issue a signal. This signal can help users quickly capture market hotspots and determine whether a token has potential for short-term upside.

These tools provide users with a complete trading support system. For example, when the token insider analysis tool shows that the accumulation of a token by market makers has reached a high point, and the FOMO CALL signal captures the collective buying behavior of multiple smart money addresses, this usually indicates that the token may become a market hotspot. Users can establish positions and track the trend based on the data provided by the tools, combined with the "double your money, halve your losses" strategy.

How to Capture the Movements of Market Makers and Take Action?

In the cryptocurrency market, market makers profit by accumulating and distributing, and their on-chain holding behavior inevitably changes during this process. The core of the trading strategy is how to capture the behavioral patterns of market makers through data. For example, during the accumulation phase, market makers will exhibit specific on-chain behaviors, which can be aggregated and converted into trading signals.

However, when more people adopt similar strategies, market makers may adjust their strategies or even hide their behavior. Therefore, the effectiveness of the trading strategy needs to be constantly adjusted and optimized to identify potential hidden behaviors of market makers. SaBiBro666 believes that this is an ongoing battle, and a dynamically optimized monitoring model is the key to the long-term effectiveness of the strategy.

SaBiBro666's strategy starts by tracking "smart money" addresses, which typically achieve a win rate of over 40% and generate significant returns in the market. By using tools to filter out these addresses, he and his team have established their own DAO and monitoring list, continuously monitoring a group of high-performing address clusters.

The core methods of the strategy include:

  • Identifying collective actions: the team has found that certain address clusters will synchronize their operations, including collective accumulation and distribution behavior. This regularity forms the basis of the strategy.
  • Position control: when following the market makers, avoid entering the top 100 holding list to maintain a low profile and not affect the market makers' trading rhythm. The typical buy-in position is usually less than 0.5% of the token's market capitalization.
  • Signal response: when the monitored clusters show collective entry into a token, the strategy will make small-scale exploratory follow-ups to avoid exposing its own behavior too early.

Strategy Case: The Trading Process of Moodeng

The successful trading of MOODENG is an important milestone for SaBiBro666's team. In September 2024, the team monitored a long-term high-performing address cluster making a large-scale entry into MOODENG and rapidly accumulating. Based on the market makers' previous trading tactics, the team maintained small-scale buy-ins and gradually followed up.

During the trading process, the market makers tested the market's buying and selling sentiment through multiple rounds of price increases and pullbacks, ensuring that the concentration of their holdings was not diluted. SaBiBro666 closely monitored the changes in the holding ratios of these market maker addresses and found that they would accumulate again after each pullback, which strengthened the team's bullish confidence in MOODENG.

Ultimately, MOODENG rose from its initial small market capitalization to a market capitalization of hundreds of millions, and the team not only achieved high returns but also validated the "follow the smart money" trading theory through this process.

How to Capture the Opportunities of Capital Rotation in the Crypto Market?

The cyclical changes in the cryptocurrency market have a significant impact on the execution of trading strategies. From a macro perspective, the focus of capital may differ in different periods:

Rotation among mainstream coins: Capital may concentrate on assets like BTC and ETH, resulting in a lack of on-chain liquidity and lower trading volume.

Switching of emerging public chains and hotspots: Ecosystem hotspots may shift between public chains, such as the recent transition from ETH to Base, BSC, and then to Solana. Solana has become a breeding ground for high-frequency trading and innovative projects due to its high TPS and low Gas fees.

Meme tracks and narrative changes: Even within more specific tracks, such as Meme tokens, capital may rotate due to updates in launchpads or changes in narratives. For example, the market's focus has shifted from the high-frequency PVP market on Solana to new projects on the Base chain.

Through on-chain data tools like Dune, the Airdrop team monitors real-time on-chain transaction volume and capital flows to assist in decision-making. For example, the recent capital rotation indicates that the emerging on-chain virtual economy (such as AI Agents, Virtuals) has become a hot spot, which suggests that the team needs to adjust their positions in a timely manner and follow the capital flows.

Why can calmness and discipline determine the success or failure of trading?

The bull market provides a wealth of opportunities, but also comes with high risks. In such a market, maintaining calmness and discipline is particularly important:

Independent judgment: The Airdrop team emphasizes that trading should be centered on verified strategies, rather than catering to market sentiment. They point out that the emotional fluctuations in a bull market can easily lead traders to be misled by the "eternal bull market" narrative, resulting in excessive optimism.

Timely profit-taking: A major trap in a bull market is "unwillingness to sell." Even if the market is rising, taking partial profits is key to maintaining a long-term advantage. Even if you miss out on higher price levels, controlling risk should always take priority over chasing higher returns.

Stable cash flow support: Cash flow is the stabilizer for calm trading. Obtaining stable cash flow through core business or quantitative funds can reduce dependence on short-term market fluctuations, making trading more composed.

In a bull market, traders often face anxiety, which can include: fear of missing opportunities, returns not meeting expectations, and psychological fluctuations caused by short-term drawdowns. In response, the Airdrop team also shared their coping strategies:

Focus on the trading framework: Trades that go beyond the framework, even if profitable, are not considered successful. The core of trading is to verify strategies and refine cognition, rather than short-term gains.

Establish a calm communication environment: Avoid being distracted by emotional signals and maintain communication with calm and rational trading partners. Especially in a bull market, overheated emotions can easily lead to irrational decision-making.

Remember the cyclicality of the market: The Airdrop team points out that the bull market is not "eternal," but a cycle of opportunities and risks. Even with a strong bullish sentiment, risks need to be vigilant, especially when the market only shows a single narrative without clear supporting logic.

How to quickly improve your cognitive level?

The Airdrop team believes that the core of personal growth lies in circle upgrades, and communicating with high-cognition people can significantly accelerate one's own cognitive iteration. They emphasize that breaking out of the social comfort zone and actively interacting with outstanding people is an important way to improve oneself.

In the process of trading and entrepreneurship, he has continuously learned from the successful experiences and methods of others, and found his own breakthroughs. The influence of communicating with others is subtle and far-reaching. The actions and results of successful people around him can inspire him to think and further optimize his own path. He advocates "upward social interaction," and through interacting with better people, he discovers more possibilities.

He also mentioned that "Rich Dad Poor Dad" is a book that has had a profound impact on his financial thinking. This book emphasizes the concept of the four quadrants of wealth, teaching him to think about wealth management from the perspective of "making money work for you." He mentioned that this book broke the traditional education concept of "stable employment," and inspired him to explore the possibilities of entrepreneurship and investment.

In addition to books, his progress is also due to other knowledge sources. For example:

1. On-chain analysis KOLs

  • Ai Aunt @ai_9684xtpa: Provides in-depth market insights with on-chain data analysis as the core.
  • Maitong @Michael_Liu93: Based on market behavior and human nature analysis, explains the logic of the main force's behavior from another angle.

2. Social media and communities: By following active traders on Twitter and Telegram, quickly capture market trends, and discuss new tracks and business opportunities with the team.

In addition, the Airdrop team believes that the integration of cognition across Web2 and Web3 is an important direction for the future. They often study business cases in Web2 with the team, exploring how to replicate successful models to Web3. This cross-domain thinking allows them to maintain a leading edge in exploring new tracks.

Summary and Recommendations

Data-driven and continuous optimization: Data-driven trading strategies have been proven feasible in actual combat, but require continuous dynamic optimization. In addition, whether it is the rotation of on-chain hotspots or the switching of track narratives, it is necessary to maintain sensitivity and adaptability.

Patience and discipline: Successful trading not only depends on strategy, but also requires a stable mentality. Whether in a bull or bear market, following the trading rules and maintaining independent judgment can win long-term advantages.

Establish cognitive and cash flow pillars: By having a stable cash flow as the foundation, traders can face market fluctuations with a more composed attitude. Through "continuous learning" and "circle upgrades," keep yourself at the forefront of knowledge.

Source
Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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