According to the Federal Reserve's website, the Federal Reserve will welcome 2 "hawkish" voter members, 1 "dovish" voter member, and 1 neutral voter member in 2025, with Chicago Fed President Austan D. Goolsbee, Boston Fed President Susan M. Collins, St. Louis Fed President Alberto G. Musalem, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey R. Schmid becoming the new rotating voter members, replacing the 4 rotating voter members in 2024: Richmond Fed President Thomas I. Barkin, Atlanta Fed President Raphael W. Bostic, San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly, and Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack. Bloomberg analysis believes that the stance of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voter members in 2025 will be more dispersed, with less neutrality, which may lead to more divisions. Barron's believes that the rotating voter members may tilt the Federal Reserve towards a "hawkish" stance in its 2025 decisions. Reuters analysis believes that over time, Federal Reserve policymakers may find their divisions emerging again, especially if the pace of labor market cooling exceeds the pace of inflation. The increase in hawkish voter members on the Federal Open Market Committee may increase the risk of divisions, although this may not change the policy outcome. The Federal Reserve's website shows that the Federal Reserve will hold 8 meetings in 2025, in January, March, May, June, July, September, October, and December. The Federal Reserve's dot plot released in December 2024 shows that the Federal Reserve has lowered the number of future rate cuts, reducing the number of rate cuts forecast for 2025 from 4 in September to 2, and raising the median rate forecast from 3.4% in September to 3.9%.
Aave governance proposal plans to peg USDe to USDT, raising community concerns
According to Protos, the Aave governance forum recently proposed a proposal to peg USDe to Tether's USDT at a 1:1 ratio, raising concerns among people about potential conflicts of interest, especially considering the differences in depegging risks between the two. The proposal is currently in the consultation stage, aiming to replace the existing Chainlink USDe/USD oracle by hard-coding the USDe price to match the USDT price in the Aave pricing source, to ensure seamless integration and reduce disruptions caused by USDe price volatility. However, the two co-authors of the proposal are from ChaosLabs and LlamaRisk, risk management companies associated with Ethena, which has raised questions about conflicts of interest from MakerDAO community member "ImperiumPaper", comparing it to a real estate agent representing both the buyer and the seller. Additionally, Tether (ostensibly) is fully backed by off-chain assets, ensuring a 1:1 redeemability of USDT for USD, while USDe is supported by a delta-neutral balance of long and short positions, facing the risk of "persistent negative funding rates" if the market sentiment turns bearish. One user compared this move to an "aggressive growth proposal", while another criticized the circular logic of acknowledging different risks and then treating the assets as having the same value rather than taking appropriate measures. In response, Ethena founder Guy Young denied any conflicts of interest and emphasized the project's risk committee, which aims to "provide external discipline and accountability for the ongoing management of the product".
Interactive Brokers is taking action to significantly reduce its risk exposure to MSTR
According to Bitcoin News, Interactive Brokers is tightening its risk exposure to MicroStrategy (ticker MSTR), gradually increasing the margin requirement, which will be raised to a minimum of 50% by January 13, 2025, clearly indicating that they are preparing for imminent significant volatility.
Vitalik: Many crypto technologies can be used in the field of d/acc
In his latest blog post, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin shared his latest views on d/acc (decentralized acceleration), noting that there is an important connection between d/acc and cryptocurrencies. d/acc extends the underlying values of cryptocurrencies, such as decentralization, censorship resistance, and open economic and social ideals, to other technology domains. Cryptocurrency users, as early adopters, naturally become the testbed for d/acc technologies. The community's strong emphasis on practice rather than just talk makes the cryptocurrency community an ideal incubator for d/acc technologies, especially in areas facing collective challenges such as information and biosecurity. Cryptocurrency practitioners are adept at collaborative action. Additionally, cryptocurrency technologies such as blockchain and zero-knowledge proofs can be applied to the financial, governance, and social media infrastructure of d/acc, protecting privacy. Many prediction markets are now based on blockchain, trending towards complexity, decentralization, and democratization. Collaborating on cryptocurrency-related technologies, such as formal verification, hardware and software security, and adversarial robust governance, benefits both cryptocurrency projects and the realization of d/acc goals, enhancing the security and resilience of the Ethereum blockchain, wallets, and DAOs, while reducing the vulnerability to network attacks (including superintelligent AI threats). Beyond these direct intersections, there is another crucial common focus: funding mechanisms. This is a way the cryptocurrency community can help d/acc in another way: by carefully exploring these funding mechanisms and making them work in their own environment, preparing for the broader adoption of open-source science and technology. The next few decades will face two major challenges: the rapid development of new technologies, especially artificial intelligence, which may have positive or negative outcomes with uncertain timelines; and the reduction of international cooperation, with many actors pursuing private interests. But he also sees hope: first, we have powerful tools to accelerate progress, such as AI assisting other technologies, brain-computer interfaces improving productivity, the internet and social media expanding coordination, cryptocurrencies enhancing financial power, and information defense and collaboration tools improving quality. Furthermore, there have been significant advancements in cybersecurity, software engineering, biosecurity, and biotechnology. Second, broad alliances can reclaim cherished principles, as cryptocurrencies have gained global recognition, and d/acc has this potential. Having tools means we can improve biological entities and the environment, and the "defense" in d/acc ensures this is done without infringing on individual freedoms. Pluralistic freedom allows for diversity, and our common human goals drive us to accomplish the task. Although the challenge of building a brighter 21st century is daunting, he believes humanity is up to the task.
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance plans to burn 5 million FET tokens on January 10
The Artificial Superintelligence Alliance posted on the X platform announcing plans to burn 5 million FET tokens on January 10, creating deflationary pressure in its ecosystem, a milestone that is part of its roadmap for the ASI Train model.
Caixin: BTC, FAAMNG, and cocoa are in the top tier of global market performance in 2024
According to Caixin News, 2024 is a year of bull markets in both Chinese stocks and bonds. Virtual currencies and US tech stocks have performed well among global assets. A strong US dollar has put pressure on global exchange rates. Looking at the performance of the global market in 2024, the top tier is mainly scarce assets: the highest increase was cocoa (NYBOT futures price), up 169.36% for the full year, Bitcoin (BTC) up 133.83%, and FAAMNG (the six major US tech giants: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Netflix, Google) up 60.77%. In addition, Ethereum (Ethereum) rose 53.41% for the full year, NYMEX natural gas rose 45.49%, and the Nasdaq index rose 30.78%, all of which had annual increases of over 30%.
1confirmation founder: Some countries are expected to try to adopt MicroStrategy's "Bitcoin script"
1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino posted on the X platform that it is very likely that we will soon see countries competing to try to adopt MicroStrategy's "Bitcoin script": issuing government bonds of different maturities (5-year, 7-year, 10-year, etc.); using the bonds to purchase cryptocurrencies; and repaying the loans on time according to the loan term. Nick Tomaino added that the problem now is not whether countries will do so, but what kind of cryptocurrencies they will buy, possibly starting with BTC, but the next one will be ETH, and any sufficiently decentralized currency can participate, and the government bond market is larger than the stock market.
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has released Bitcoin Tracker-related information for the ninth consecutive week, but this time it is different from before, as he stated that "some places on the website are not quite right". (Note: MicroStrategy used to mark a green dot on the website on the corresponding date after each BTC purchase, and the BTC price trend line was in blue.) According to the previous pattern, MicroStrategy always increases its Bitcoin holdings the day after the relevant news is released.
According to Tribune, a bizarre case occurred in Pakistan where a cryptocurrency trader was kidnapped in a police car. The cryptocurrency trader was reportedly kidnapped by five men in a police car and forced to transfer $340,000 from his phone under gun threat. The perpetrators claimed to be police officers, and the local police have now filed a case and handed it over to the Anti-Violence Crime Cell (AVCC) for further investigation. The victim reportedly claimed that the suspects had previously contacted him to conduct a cryptocurrency transaction, but he had refused, and according to police sources, evidence related to the police officer's phone and the officer involved in the case has been collected.
GSR Markets has recharged 6 million FLOCK tokens into the CEX
According to monitoring by @ai_9684xtpa, GSR Markets is a market maker for the AI infrastructure project $FLOCK. Five days ago (the first day of token launch), the GSR address 0x113...2320b received 6 million FLOCK tokens distributed by the project's multi-signature address for market making, accounting for 4.65% of the circulating supply (0.6% of the total supply), and all the tokens have now been recharged into the Gate / MEXC / Bybit exchanges.
Bitcoin network transaction volume exceeded $19 trillion in 2024, more than double that of 2023
According to a post by Riot Platforms Research Vice President Pierre Rochard and the charts he shared, in 2024 the Bitcoin network completed BTC transactions worth over $19 trillion, more than double the $8.7 trillion in 2023. This surge marks a major reversal after two consecutive years of declining transaction volume since the 2021 bull market, when Bitcoin transaction volume reached a peak of $47 trillion.
Token Unlocks data shows that tokens such as APT, MOVE, and KAS will see large unlocks next week, among which:
- Movement (MOVE) will unlock about 50 million tokens at 8pm Beijing time on January 9, accounting for 2.22% of the current circulating supply, worth about $53 million;
- io.net (IO) will unlock about 3.22 million tokens at 8pm Beijing time on January 11, accounting for 2.50% of the current circulating supply, worth about $11.8 million;
- Kaspa (KAS) will unlock about 182 million tokens at 8am Beijing time on January 6, accounting for 0.72% of the current circulating supply, worth about $22.7 million;
- Axie Infinity (AXS) will unlock about 815,000 tokens at 9:10pm Beijing time on January 12, accounting for 0.52% of the current circulating supply, worth about $5.6 million;
- Aptos (APT) will unlock about 11.31 million tokens at 9:59am Beijing time on January 11, accounting for 2.03% of the current circulating supply, worth about $110 million;
- Ethena (ENA) will unlock about 12.86 million tokens at 3pm Beijing time on January 8, accounting for 0.42% of the current circulating supply, worth about $16.2 million;
- Optimism (OP) will unlock about 4.47 million tokens at 4am Beijing time on January 10, accounting for 0.33% of the current circulating supply, worth about $9.3 million;
- Delysium (AGI) will unlock about 33.59 million tokens at 8am Beijing time on January 6, accounting for 2.45% of the current circulating supply, worth about $5 million;
- Eigenlayer (EIGEN) will unlock about 1.29 million tokens at 3am Beijing time on January 8, accounting for 0.61% of the current circulating supply, worth about $5.2 million.
