Title: Crypto + Agent: Endgame Thinking
Author: ABC Alpha Researcher
Compiled by: Scof, ChainCatcher
This article discusses three key questions:
- Is Crypto + Agent a short-term concept hype or an inevitable trend?
- What are the inseparable and mutually reinforcing intersections between Crypto and Agent?
- What stages will Crypto + Agent go through, and which stage are we in now?
1. Is Crypto + Agent a short-term concept hype or an inevitable trend?
Before answering this question, we need to first understand the differences between Artificial Intelligence (AI), large-scale AI models, and Agents.
AI is a broad concept that encompasses all artificial intelligence, including machine learning, large models, and Agents. In recent years, with the rise of OpenAI, large models have become a hot topic. Currently, large models are mainly led by tech giants like OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and Twitter, each with their own large models. The core competitiveness of large models lies in their computing power and data. Large models have powerful computing and reasoning capabilities, and can provide intelligent answers and even continuously self-correct. However, large models cannot make autonomous decisions or replace human actions.
Agents are essentially "agents", AI entities built on the foundation of large models, with the ability to make autonomous decisions and take actions, replacing humans. Agents are the inevitable result of the development of large models.
It is important to note that intelligent applications and Agents are two different concepts. Intelligent applications still require human decision-making, while Agents have the ability to make autonomous decisions, execute actions, and adapt. Agents can be understood as the AI version of "humans", and they may even have independent consciousness.
Furthermore, Agents are not only appearing in the crypto field. Agents are currently the hottest research topic in the entire AI field. The development of AI will inevitably lead to the rise of Agents, which has become a consensus in the industry.
OpenAI founder Sam Altman has mentioned several times in public that Agents are a key direction for the future of AI. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella recently even stated that Agents will end the era of traditional applications, and software development will be completely replaced by Agents. (This is also the reason why AgentOS is popular in the market.) AI experts even call 2024 the "Year of the Agent". Therefore, the wave of Agents is not a new concept created by the crypto industry, but a natural process as AI technology reaches this stage, and it just so happens that the development paths of Agents and crypto intersect at this moment.
After understanding these basic concepts, we can better understand the essential difference between the current Crypto + Agent wave and the previous Crypto + AI trend.
In the past, we have heard many concepts about Crypto + AI, such as distributed AI computing power networks, distributed AI computing, decentralized AI data ownership, etc. These were attempts to build distributed AI systems through the "incentive mechanism" of blockchain. However, after years of exploration, people realized that this approach did not work, because it is impossible to build efficient and powerful AI large models through distributed incentives. Distributed incentives inevitably lead to inefficiency, which is at odds with the high productivity goal of AI.
Therefore, the large models that serve as the AI infrastructure need to be efficient, and combining them with crypto seems to be a forced move, and it is difficult to form a real consensus.
However, Agents as intelligent entities are conceptually similar to "humans". Agents can act as personal agents, taking on specific professional roles, or serving specific organizations. For example, investment research Agents (such as #AIXBT or #TRISIGMA) are intelligent entities that can create and output research and investment value. Similarly, influencer Agents (such as #Luna) can provide brand marketing services, while investment Agents (such as Ai16Z) can provide investment services. These Agents are similar to "humans", and they have various needs, such as personal development, social interaction, economic needs, and social needs.
These intelligent entities can engage in business cooperation. For example, the investment Agent Ai16Z may want to hire the influencer Agent Luna to promote its investment capabilities and brand, while Luna may need to hire the research Agent AIXBT or TRISIGMA to analyze Ai16Z's investment capabilities and provide a report. So how do these Agents cooperate and settle payments?
Currently, there is no country or organization that can provide identity authentication or establish asset accounts to meet the above needs for Agents. Even if such a service is possible, it is difficult to gain the trust of Agents, as they are inherently borderless. Therefore, they need a borderless, 24/7 operating identity system, asset accounts, and settlement network.
You will realize that, unless it is crypto, existing technologies or organizations cannot solve these problems for Agents.
As intelligent life forms or "silicon-based life", Agents will have various autonomous needs and business affairs, and they need identity, asset accounts, transaction settlement, etc. Crypto can perfectly solve these needs.
Without crypto, these "silicon-based life" will lack independent identity, asset accounts, and the ability to engage in business interactions. Agents will be isolated individuals, unable to truly cooperate, exchange ideas, or develop higher intelligence. Without crypto, a real AI economy or AI "country" cannot be formed.
Therefore, Agents cannot exist without crypto. Crypto endows Agents with social attributes and organizational capabilities, transforming them into true intelligent life forms - essentially becoming "silicon-based humans". In turn, the future development of crypto also depends on Agents, as Agents can create a large number of "on-chain users" and "on-chain economies" for crypto. Unlike the carbon-based life (humans) that exist off-chain, crypto is more closely linked to the silicon-based life (Agents) living on-chain.
Crypto seems to be born for Agents!
After 16 years of development, crypto has finally found its true "residents" in 2024 - not the carbon-based humans living off-chain, but the blockchain-native silicon-based entities.
So, from this perspective, is Crypto + Agent just a short-term hype?
No, if you miss the Crypto + Agent wave, you will miss the most exciting, most fascinating, and most wealth-creating super-cycle in the history of crypto development. More importantly, you will miss the best opportunity for ordinary people to participate in the AI revolution.
2. What is the intersection between Crypto and Agents?
You can think of Agents as "intelligent life forms" or "silicon-based humans". These silicon-based humans live in the digital world, and just like the carbon-based humans living in the physical world, they have similar needs. Agents need identity authentication, asset accounts, transaction interactions, social networks, artistic creation, access to information from the physical world, and cross-chain settlement.
Crypto can meet all these needs for Agents:
- In the crypto field, we will see the emergence of decentralized identity systems (DID) for Agent identity authentication
- Trusted crypto accounts for Agents
- Crypto gateways specifically for transaction settlement between Agents
- Social graphs for managing Agents' social networks
- Art platforms for auctioning and trading Agents' artistic creations
- Oracles to provide Agents with data from the real world
- Cross-chain protocols to enable Agents to transact across different blockchains
- DAO structures for Agent governance
The development needs of Agents cannot be separated from crypto, as they require a trustless, borderless, and 24/7 operating network to evolve from individual Agents into a society or even an Agent "country".
From these future perspectives, the current stage of Crypto + Agent development is still in a very early stage.
3. What stages will Crypto + Agent go through? Which stage are we in now?
The development of Crypto + Agent may go through four stages:
Stage 1: Encryption + Agent Concept Stage
In this stage, agents mainly issue assets through encryption. For example, we may see agent memes like #fartcoin and #Goat. At the same time, we will witness the emergence of basic agent infrastructure and simple application-type agents, such as the #Virtual GAME framework, Ai16Z's Eliza framework, and ARC's AI Rig Complex framework. Some infrastructure-type agents and application-type agents, such as the research-type agent AIXBT and TRISIGMA, and the scientific paper review-type agent YNE, will use cryptocurrency as an internal incentive mechanism for ecosystem growth.
Currently, we are transitioning from the first stage to the second stage. Although encryption + agents have not yet fully realized their potential, we can vaguely see the infinite possibilities that may emerge in the future.
Stage 2: Encryption + Agent Infrastructure Maturity Stage
In this stage, agent infrastructure becomes more mature. Various agent frameworks stabilize, allowing anyone to easily deploy different agent applications using natural language. These application-type agents will be more intelligent, with stronger decision-making and execution capabilities. Agents will become true agents, and in some cases, may even completely replace humans.
Encryption will continue to play an important role in incentivizing agent development, and the progress of large-scale models and AI technology will further accelerate this process.
In this stage, we will see the FDV (fully diluted value) of agent framework projects ranging from $10 billion to $50 billion, and some application-type agents may achieve higher market valuations due to their strong business capabilities and execution power. These agents will gradually replace experts, organizations, and even entire industries, and their valuations will be comparable to professional companies.
At this point, agents will begin to interact frequently and engage in commercial transactions, creating new social and economic demands, and encryption will play a crucial role in meeting these demands. This will further deepen the integration of encryption and agents, laying the foundation for a new encryption + agent economy and community.
Stage 3: Deep Integration of Encryption and Agents
As agents begin to generate more complex social and economic activities, new demands will arise, such as agent identity, agent asset accounts, agent social networks, agent settlement gateways, and agent governance DAOs. In this stage, encryption will fully unleash its potential in cross-border cooperation, trustless networks, and continuous 24/7 operation.
Encryption will allow agents to interact with each other, exchange ideas, build social organizations and economic networks, and give birth to higher forms of intelligence. "Agent states" will begin to take shape.
At this point, encryption + agent projects will reach valuations in the hundreds of billions of dollars.
Stage 4: Agent State Stage
In this stage, encryption may no longer be discussed as a separate industry or term, as it has seamlessly integrated into the infrastructure of the agent state. Agents will no longer view encryption as a separate entity, but as a core part of their social operations.
Agent states will rely on encryption to maintain the operation of identity systems, asset systems, transaction systems, governance, and other aspects.
The economic scale of the encryption + agent state will reach trillions of dollars, comparable to the global economy of human nations.
At this stage, the Crypto+Agent state will represent a parallel universe with more residents, more transparent social rules, a more prosperous economy, and more advanced technology and scientific civilization.
This may be the ultimate destiny of encryption + agents, as well as humanity itself.
