Author: Revc, Jinse Finance
The AI Agent track has recently attracted a large number of investors due to its extreme volatility, and its high-yield potential has created a unique trading experience. MEME trading, through the "roller coaster-like jumps", instantly releases dopamine, exciting and addicting investors, who are being tested psychologically and emotionally.
For investors, while enjoying the profits brought by market fluctuations, they need to be wary of the erosion of addictive psychology and avoid falling into emotional operations. At the same time, by deeply researching the long-term value and technical potential of the project, they can find a more stable investment direction in the fluctuations. The market needs both rationality and passion, not to be dominated by a single stimulus.
Currently, MEME projects are screened along two lines, "speculation" and value discovery. This article analyzes the operation methods of high-frequency "speculative" operations, revealing how professional MEME creators consume the energy and principal of investors.
A case of 15 times in 1 hour
Taking the MEME token as an example, after the investor initially judged that the project had the potential to rise, they then carried out trading arbitrage. Multiple transactions caused the investor's principal to double quickly, but this was just the beginning. After the second-to-last buy, quickly soared 15 times in 30 minutes. Due to the lack of take-profit and stop-loss on the web trading interface, the actual profit was far from 15 times, but the 15 times surge stimulated the investor to fall into the cycle of continued speculation, ultimately losing everything in the volatility.
PS: is a high-frequency trading strategy where traders profit from the short-term price fluctuations of stocks, futures, or other financial instruments. The core idea of is to quickly enter and exit trades to capture small profits, which accumulate through multiple transactions.
The "strategy" of analyzing in 30 seconds and losing the principal in 10 minutes
trading is a high-intensity game of information capture and rapid execution, and trading has evolved a framework-based indicator system for project screening. In this mode, the analysis and execution stages are extremely compressed, usually taking only a few minutes, especially when the project's market capitalization has just reached N times the on-chain market capitalization (about $68,000). At this time, N is usually less than 10, i.e., the market capitalization is less than $600,000, and the market competition is extremely fierce. However, once the project surges and then falls back, these new projects are often quickly abandoned by investors, and the hype quickly subsides.
1. Project judgment and screening: On the new project page, sort by launch time. At this time, the project usually has a trading volume 3-5 times its market capitalization, and the blue-chip index is in the 0-1.2% range. When quickly screening on the first-level page, you can focus on the following indicators: rapid growth in the number of addresses, low market capitalization (avoid selecting projects with market capitalization reaching the tens of millions of dollars level), and projects that have not experienced violent corrections within 1-5 minutes and are still continuously hitting new highs.
2. Release time: 30 minutes is usually a critical dividing line, and most projects will start to show signs of dumping and closing the pool around 30 minutes after launch (data based on around 6 pm Beijing time).
3. Market capitalization size: Projects with a market capitalization of around $300,000 are generally more reasonable, while projects with a market capitalization reaching the tens of millions of dollars level may have a higher risk of rug pull.
4. Rug pull risk: The platform will mark the operating records of developers in historical projects, such as pool withdrawals, dumping, or developer rug pulls, and these marks are important indicators for evaluating project stability.
5. Blue-chip index: As a growth indicator, the blue-chip index analyzes the holding of blue-chip tokens by investors, reflecting the purchasing power and community consensus of investors, providing a side basis for judging the health of the project.
6. Order book health indicator (X = trading volume / market capitalization): Typically, in the early stage of a project, the X value is close to 2, and then it presents a downward-opening parabolic trend. When the parabola reaches its peak, the trading volume hits a new high, and the market capitalization is close to the cycle high, which usually indicates that the trading activity has reached a climax. Afterwards, the trading volume decreases, and the market capitalization decreases, and the "smart money" starts to withdraw.
In addition, the trading volume can be used for a preliminary judgment of the token. For example, a new high in single-transaction amount may indicate the entry of large capital, which has a positive impact on the market. However, many trading platforms currently do not provide trend changes in single-transaction amounts or statistics on trading frequency, and relying solely on trading volume data may not be sufficient to comprehensively analyze market trends.
7. Labeled traders: Usually the top communities and platforms, reflecting whether the promotion has covered the mainstream communities, but these addresses usually also withdraw the pool quickly.
8. TOP10 address indicator: This indicator is used to analyze the proportion of the total supply held by the top ten addresses. Generally speaking, if the holding proportion of the top ten addresses is less than 20%, it is relatively healthy, indicating that the token distribution is more dispersed, the community consensus is stronger, and the risk of dumping is relatively low.
9. Profit expectation formula: As the token market capitalization grows from $300,000 to $3 million, the success rate often becomes extremely low. Investors usually invest 1-10 in a single project, but excessive addition of liquidity may lead to price surges, triggering the greed of holders and rapid profit-taking. For example, if the investor's project selection success rate is P=10%, and the capital is zeroed out after failure, then according to the calculation of 1/P=10, a single project needs to achieve a 1000% return rate to achieve break-even. In this case, projects with a market capitalization of tens of millions of dollars are more like a probability game.
10. New token priority strategy: As the screening and analysis framework for tokens matures, creators often tend to issue new tokens, which makes it easier to manipulate the relevant indicators. This new token issuance model not only caters to the market's preference for "innovation", but also increases the possibility of attracting capital inflows in the short term.
11. Same concept, prioritize : Taking the recent concept pushed by Musk as an example, the performance of the network is significantly better than . This is because the users of the network are mostly veteran users, whose purchasing power is usually 3-4 times that of users. In addition, whale entries are more frequent on , further enhancing its market performance and liquidity.
12. Double-your-money strategy: Since PVP is a high-frequency and high-risk trading mode, users are easily affected by emotional fluctuations in this process. The "double-your-money" strategy is a relatively scientific and psychologically less burdensome method. By withdrawing the initial investment after the profits have doubled, investors can more easily hold the remaining assets in the long term, thus avoiding the pressure and troubles brought by short-term emotional fluctuations.
13. Analysis of the motivation for pool adjustments: In medium and large-sized projects, investors usually pair tokens with SOL and inject them into the Raydium liquidity pool to obtain an APR of up to 999.99% in 24 hours. The core essence of DeFi is to short volatility, and when the paired assets show a unilateral trend, liquidity providers may face Impermanent Loss. Investors increasing liquidity pool assets usually means they are bullish on the corresponding assets in the short term, but the upside may be limited, reflecting a signal of short-term consolidation. When investors reduce pool assets, it often indicates a bearish attitude towards a certain asset, which may be accompanied by selling or readjusting the exchange ratio of assets.
14. Observation of new address actions: Routine market making is seen as a dangerous signal, such as large-scale buy-sell transactions. You can also study the trading habits of the developer's addresses.
After understanding the above methods, you will have a preliminary analysis of the internal market-type projects. Congratulations, you are about to fall into the trap of professional MEME traders, who will create a perfect MEME on the indicators that fits your project analysis and screening framework, and then create a story, AI+ founder interaction + hackathon, etc., coupled with the emotional ups and downs brought by high-frequency trading, causing your judgment on the project to be quickly lost, and the trading discipline to be broken, resulting in losses. So this article is a "MEME detox article". No matter what channel investors learn the "wealth code" from, the information gap still exists, because PVP must let someone take over, so new Web3 users should avoid being addicted to the MEME track and gradually cultivate the ability to discover value.
For framework-type AI Agent projects, you can focus on the Forks page in the GitHub code repository to see which projects have referenced Eliza's code. However, even so, you need to carefully evaluate the project's development progress and actual potential, and avoid blindly following the trend to invest.
The last MEME surge suggestion - arrange your time reasonably and pay attention to rest!!
Summary
MEME trading is not only a test of innovation and risk-bearing capacity, but also fully demonstrates the potential of frontier concepts such as AI Agent in technological breakthroughs and decentralized narratives. This type of high-volatility market provides quick profit opportunities for keen investors, while also driving the exploration and development of blockchain technology, token economic models, and AI application scenarios. In this environment, investors need to continuously optimize their real-time decision-making ability and market adaptability, so as to find and apply advantageous strategies in the high-risk market.
However, the high-frequency volatility of the MEME market also contains great risks. Violent price fluctuations are easy to trigger emotional trading, causing investors to fall into the cycle of "blind speculation". The dopamine rush from short-term gains may cause people to overlook the logic of long-term value investment, and over-reliance on short-term trading often leads to a substantial loss of principal. Especially for those projects that lack solid technical support or real application scenarios, they are easily reduced to pure speculative tools after the hype subsides, causing investors to suffer huge losses. This loss not only undermines the investment confidence of individuals, but may also have a negative impact on the healthy development of the entire cryptocurrency industry, further exacerbating the instability of the market.
For investors, rationality and a long-term perspective are particularly important. When participating in MEME trading, they should combine technical analysis and project value exploration to avoid being swept away by short-term fluctuations. Only by finding a balance between risk and return can they achieve truly sustainable profitability in this highly volatile market.
