With Donald Trump officially taking office as the President of the United States on January 20, 2025, this definitive signal portends a series of impending reform measures, particularly targeting the emerging cryptocurrency industry. After BTC broke through $100,000 to set a new high, the cryptocurrency industry seems to have fallen into a quagmire, with BTC fluctuating around the $100,000 mark, coupled with the upcoming prolonged crypto news vacuum period in February, the future market performance requires more caution.
From Campaign to Gunshot to Election: The Biggest Positive and Expectations Were Given in Advance!
Looking back at Trump's entire process from campaigning to being elected, he had previously given ten new cryptocurrency policies at the 2024 BTC conference, most of which were in the form of "if I am elected, I will XXXX". Let's review them together:
●Make the US the global cryptocurrency capital
●Stop the crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry within an hour of taking office
●Prevent the US government from further developing CBDC
●Establish a strategic BTC reserve
●Dismiss SEC Chairman Gary Gensler
●Prevent the US from selling its BTC holdings
●Propose using cryptocurrencies to solve the US debt problem
●Propose a comprehensive cryptocurrency policy
●Establish a Cryptocurrency Advisory Council
●Reduce the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht
The statement "Make the US the global cryptocurrency capital" in particular catapulted the cryptocurrency community into the spotlight, allowing more voters participating in cryptocurrency transactions to support his presidential campaign. Trump's series of statements injected optimism into the market, but after the inauguration, there were no immediate concrete actions to fulfill these promises, leading some investors to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
But just the other day, Trump held a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, which was initially announced as an economic development announcement, revealing Dubai developer Damac Properties' plan to invest $20 billion in the US to build data centers. However, during this press conference, Trump raised four new issues: increasing the military spending ratio of NATO member countries, making Canada the 51st state of the US, not abandoning the military occupation of the Panama Canal and Greenland, and renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the "American Bay".
The "territorial expansion desire" revealed between the lines immediately made the international situation tense, with the sentiment of confrontation between countries spreading, which indirectly caused the cryptocurrency market to become "turbulent", showing a downward trend. According to news on January 7, Coinglass data showed that the 24-hour cryptocurrency market had $346 million in contract liquidations, of which $282 million were long liquidations and $63.47 million were short liquidations. BTC had a total liquidation of $69.59 million, and ETH had a total liquidation of $59.68 million.
From the "Fight!" statement after being shot during the campaign, to the positive cryptocurrency remarks at the BTC conference, and finally to being elected president, Trump has brought unprecedented attention to the cryptocurrency industry, and the cryptocurrency industry has provided more support and funding for Trump. By January 20, when he officially takes office, the cryptocurrency industry is very likely to enter the "true positive landing is negative" stage.
February: No Wind, No Waves, Sideways Market
Let's take a look at the Fed's meeting schedule for 2025.
First meeting: January 28-29, 2025, to make interest rate decisions
Second meeting: March 18-19, 2025, to make interest rate decisions and economic outlook
StarEx exchange analysts believe that strong data has dampened market expectations for the Fed to cut rates quickly. Previously, the market generally expected the Fed to cut rates twice in 2025, but this expectation has been quickly revised downward after the recent economic data release. Some analysts even believe that the Fed may not cut rates at all this year, and even if it does, the magnitude will be very limited. Aditya Bhave, US economist at Bank of America, said in a report to clients on Wednesday that "there are increasing signs that inflation is on an upward trend", and considering the timing of the government transition, the Fed may have already completed the last rate cut of this cycle.
Combining the above, regarding the first Fed meeting, the recent obvious correction in the US stock market has also brought a lot of uncertainty to the market, and the monetary policy meeting this month is most likely to maintain no rate cuts, and the market will not have much more positive news in the short term.
In addition, by checking the major Web3 calendars, the cryptocurrency industry in February is as calm as water, with no major moves, which will lead to a cryptocurrency news vacuum period. The cryptocurrency market in February is most likely to show a sideways consolidation trend with lower trading volume and reduced volatility. Cryptocurrency prices will fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, without a clear upward or downward trend. Trading activity will also decrease, and the overall market activity will be lower, with smaller price fluctuations.
Crypto Maverick Musk: X Will Not Adopt Cryptocurrencies for Payments in the Near Future
Recently, Musk mentioned the X payment-related topic during the X Live (Stream) test, stating: "There are no plans to use cryptocurrencies in the X Payments service in the near future, as we need licenses. We are currently only focusing on fiat currencies and are dedicated to effectively launching the X Payments service."
This statement does not prove that Musk does not support cryptocurrencies. It may be due to the compliance considerations of the platform's payments, and fiat currency payments are more in line with the current development needs and compliance requirements, but this has also caused panic among many cryptocurrency enthusiasts.
In addition, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes in his latest blog post "Sasa" stated that in the first quarter of 2025, the market will focus on whether dollar liquidity can offset the impact of the slow implementation of Trump's policies. If liquidity is sufficient, increasing risk exposure will be a safe choice. This also reflects that the market direction in the first quarter is difficult to grasp, and it is almost impossible to capture definite positive news, so cautious observation is not the best choice.
Summary
Although Trump painted a hopeful blueprint for the cryptocurrency industry during his campaign and promised to make the US the global cryptocurrency capital, the actual actions taken after his inauguration are not yet clear. With the cryptocurrency news vacuum period entering February, market participants need to be wary of potential policy uncertainties and changes in the international situation that may impact the market. After Trump officially takes office, whether the cryptocurrency utopia he envisioned can stir up a new cryptocurrency wave, or whether the promised cryptocurrency new policies can be quickly implemented and executed, will be enough to form a new round of positive news, continuing to drive BTC to higher price levels.
