I. Attention Value - Market Highlights

1. Market Trends

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:

l The Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed rising inflation risks, and the pace of rate cuts may slow

The December meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve expressed widespread concerns about the upside risks to inflation, especially considering the potential tariff and immigration policies of the incoming Trump administration. Almost all participants agreed that the Fed was nearing the point of slowing the pace of monetary policy easing, reflecting confidence in the continued strength of economic activity. At this meeting, the Fed lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.5%. Although the rate cut was relatively small, officials took a cautious stance on future rate cuts, expecting only 75 basis points of cuts in 2025. The market generally expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the meeting at the end of this month, with the first rate cut likely to wait until June. The minutes noted that while inflation has moderated over the past year, recent higher-than-expected inflation data and uncertainty about policy changes have made participants uneasy about the future inflation outlook. Fed Chair Powell mentioned at the meeting that the current economic situation requires more cautious monetary policy decisions, implying that the Fed may slow the pace of rate cuts in the coming months to address the changing economic environment.

(2) Web3 Sector:

l CFTC Chair Behnam calls on Congress to accelerate crypto regulation legislation

Outgoing Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Rostin Behnam has reiterated the urgency of congressional action on cryptocurrency regulation. He stated that although he will no longer be chair, he will continue to actively push for progress in this area at the CFTC. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Behnam noted that the development of cryptocurrency legislation will take some time and mentioned the impact of the new president and congressional members on the legislative process. He expects the legislative process may take six to ten months, followed by a year-long rulemaking process. Behnam believes the acting chair will play a key role in the new regulatory environment and noted that current commissioners have been exploring the establishment of a "sandbox" environment to allow crypto participants to operate within a controlled framework without fear of enforcement or regulatory pressure. He also mentioned that legislative efforts by some lawmakers, including Debbie Stabenow and Patrick McHenry, are positive attempts, though not perfect. He believes the existing regulations are inadequate to effectively address the challenges facing the cryptocurrency market, and an updated and improved regulatory framework is urgently needed.

2. Hot Events

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:

l The rise in global bond yields poses a challenge to the crypto bull market

Since the end of 2024, the cryptocurrency market has been in a bull market, but the rising trend in global government bond yields has started to attract widespread market attention. According to Coindesk analyst James Van Straten, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has risen to 4.70%, near a multi-year high, having increased by more than 100 basis points since the Fed's first rate cut in September. This change may impact the sentiment of cryptocurrency market investors. At the same time, the yield on the 30-year UK government bond reached 5.35% on Wednesday, the highest level since 1998, and has also risen by 105 basis points since the Fed's rate cut in September. The rise in these interest rates reflects not only changes in the global economic environment, but may also influence investors' choices between cryptocurrencies and other high-risk assets, posing a challenge to the continued crypto bull market. As bond yields rise, investors may reassess their risk preferences, potentially impacting the demand for cryptocurrencies.

(2) Web3 Sector:

l The US Department of Justice is authorized to sell $6.5 billion in Silk Road bitcoins, with mixed market reactions

The US Department of Justice has been authorized to sell the 69,370 bitcoins seized in the Silk Road case, worth approximately $6.5 billion. The US government currently holds 198,109 bitcoins, worth about $186 billion, and 54,753 ether, worth about $1.8 billion.

The Department of Justice applied to sell these assets due to the volatility of bitcoin prices. When asked about the next steps, a DOJ spokesperson said, "The government will take the next steps in accordance with the judgment in this case." Although authorized to sell, the specific timing of the sale has not yet been determined. With only 11 days until Trump's inauguration on January 20, and Trump having previously stated he would not sell any bitcoins after taking office, the future sale plans are uncertain, with related bets indicating a 22% probability of a sale. Affected by this news, the price of bitcoin fell nearly 2% to $93,365.2.

3. Hot Narratives

l Sonic SVM and Galaxy Interactive jointly launch the G.A.M.E. Fund 1 to drive the development of Web3 games and AI agents