Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010 )
Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high again!
Time has entered January 2025, and Bitcoin has finally seen a long-awaited breakthrough, and it has been 1 month and 3 days since the historical high of $108,000 on December 17, 2024.
In just one month, Desci and AI Agent have taken turns to take the stage, but no one expected that the new high point would still be the "Trump effect" - in the days following the launch of Trump's official Meme coin, off-chain liquidity has been pouring in crazily through USDC, SOL and others, Crypto news has sparked heated discussions on social media platforms and traditional news media, and "Trump's coin launch" has become a hot topic of conversation.
According to OKX market data, the BTC price successfully broke through the previous high around 3 pm today, reaching $109,800, with a daily increase of over 10%; the current price has fallen back to around $108,400, with a 24-hour increase of about 3.36%. Odaily Planet Daily will sort out the recent market views in this article and explore the main driving forces behind this new high and the views of industry insiders.
The magic and lasting power of the "Trump effect"
Since winning the presidential election last November, the crypto market has been continuously stimulated by the "Trump effect", with BTC prices breaking new highs one after another. And after experiencing nearly 3 months of various verifications, the market seems to have already believed that "Trump's crypto-friendly attitude is not just talk". This has been indirectly confirmed by his cabinet appointments, personal statements, and the recent launch of the "official Meme coin project". He himself is also quite pleased with this.
Trump attributes the stock market rise and Bitcoin's new highs to the "Trump effect"
"You've seen results that nobody thought possible," Trump said at a rally, then called it the "Trump effect", "Since the election, the stock market has risen significantly, small business optimism has risen a record 41 points, reaching the highest level in 39 years. Bitcoin has broken one historical high after another."
The stock market has continued to rise over the past year, reaching a high in early December shortly after the election. The S&P 500 index reached a peak of 6,090 points on December 11, while the Nasdaq index reached a high of 20,204 points on December 16.
Trump said today that: "Within hours of taking office, I will sign dozens, in fact close to 100, executive orders."
Previously, according to a Bloomberg report, due to market rumors that Donald Trump may soon issue an executive order to make cryptocurrencies a national priority, Bitcoin rose again this Friday, and it is said that Trump may announce the establishment of the cryptocurrency advisory committee he had previously promised in his executive orders, giving the cryptocurrency industry a voice in his government. Investors expect any statement from the new government next week to drive up Bitcoin prices and potentially set new highs, but Wall Street has warned that while Congress and the White House will support cryptocurrencies in 2025, it will take some time for the market to feel the impact.
Trump's White House AI and Cryptocurrency chief David Sacks previously wrote that "the unfriendly rule over cryptocurrencies has ended, and the new era of US cryptocurrency innovation has just begun." Split Capital founder Zaheer Ebtikar said: "The market is currently digesting the factors of Trump's inauguration and his optimistic attitude towards cryptocurrencies."
Countdown to Crypto Reserves: Polymarket Predicts 58% Probability
According to Polymarket data, the "Yes" probability on the platform for "whether Trump will create a Bitcoin reserve within 100 days of taking office" has surged to 58%, up from 43% yesterday.
Trump's son Eric Trump reveals he holds BTC, ETH, SOL and SUI
Trump's son Eric Trump, the president-elect, emphasized in an interview the plan to position the US as a global center for cryptocurrencies, working with his father Trump.
Eric criticized the current administration's handling of cryptocurrencies, accusing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and other regulators of "waging a holy war" on the industry: "The crypto community in America has been under a full-scale attack from Gary Gensler and many others. Biden is nowhere to be found. Kamala (Harris) is nowhere to be found. They don't understand what crypto is. Frankly, they've waged a holy war on the community. And then all of a sudden my father shows up." He also mentioned Trump's support for cryptocurrencies and said his appearance at the Bitcoin conference was a key moment for the industry.Eric is optimistic about Bitcoin and other digital currencies, saying he is "very bullish". Although he refused to make specific price predictions for Bitcoin, he disclosed his holdings include BTC, ETH, SOL and SUI.
The "New Crypto Population" Sparked by the TRUMP Token
DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev wrote that "Trump is doing the best publicity for the cryptocurrency market. I won't care about the specific tokens, even if some of them are dumped or pumped, but I will focus on the fact that hundreds of millions of ordinary people have seen a clear signal from the US President that cryptocurrency profits are lucrative."
Combining the previous news about "Trump's coin launch" dominating the headlines of major social media platforms and traditional news media at home and abroad, Trump's influence on cryptocurrencies has undoubtedly spread globally.
Continuous buying, less selling: National, corporate and individual buying power are expected to increase
"Never Sell Your BTC" has gradually become a consensus among many national, institutional, corporate and even individual investors. "Bitcoin is very precious, don't sell it easily after buying" has become the most profound lesson learned by many people after experiencing a series of bull and bear cycles.
Even the crypto mining companies that have been relying on "mining and selling" to sustain themselves have chosen to "hold and wait" this year, rather than directly "dump".
MicroStrategy: Hinting at the 11th consecutive week of BTC accumulation
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor posted yesterday: "Tomorrow will be different", accompanied by a chart tracking Saylor's Bitcoin purchases, hinting at another BTC accumulation for the 11th consecutive week.
It must be said that today's new historical high may have been anticipated by Michael, and his buying operations have played a significant role in it.
According to Cointelegraph's disclosure on January 16, MicroStrategy has increased its BTC holdings by nearly 200,000 BTC in the past 10 weeks, far exceeding BlackRock's increase of 120,000 BTC during the same period.
MicroStrategy's BTC purchase chart
The cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $37.103 billion, and the ETF net asset ratio has reached 5.78%
According to SoSoValue data, as of January 17, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $114.818 billion, and the ETF net asset ratio (market value to Bitcoin's total market value) reached 5.78%. The cumulative net inflow has reached $37.103 billion.
According to BlackRock's official data, as of January 15, the holdings of BlackRock's Bitcoin exchange-traded fund IBIT reached 554,311.086 BTC, with a holding value exceeding $55 billion, reaching $55,464,006,965.44.
El Salvador: The Steadfast Faith of HODLers
On-chain data shows that El Salvador has added 11 more BTC (worth $1,113,508) today, bringing its total holdings to 6,043.18 BTC, valued at $608,264,513.
Wintermute Predicts the UAE and Europe Will Follow the US in Establishing Bitcoin Reserves
Wintermute released a forecast for 2025, stating that this year, cryptocurrencies will be more deeply integrated into traditional finance (TradFi) through ETFs and corporate holdings, the UAE and Europe may follow the US in establishing BTC strategic reserves, a listed company will sell debt or equity to purchase ETH, mimicking MicroStrategy's (MSTR) Bitcoin acquisition policy, and a systemically important bank will provide spot cryptocurrency trading to its clients.
US-Listed Crypto Mining Companies' Bitcoin Holdings Double to Nearly 92,473 BTC in a Year
Canadian Listed Company Goodfood Adopts BTC as a Financial Reserve Asset
Goodfood Market Corp. (TSX:FOOD), a Canadian listed company, announced a strategic shift in its financial management, planning to use Bitcoin investment as a financial reserve asset to strengthen its balance sheet and create long-term shareholder value. The company has completed an initial Bitcoin investment of approximately $1 million through a spot ETF and plans to strategically increase its holdings by investing a portion of its future remaining cash flows in Bitcoin. Goodfood is a Canadian digital native food solutions brand. CEO Jonathan Ferrari stated that holding Bitcoin can hedge against inflation and rising food costs, and has the potential of digital capital.
Futu Survey: Holding "Two BTC" Brings a Greater Sense of Security, Cryptocurrencies Becoming the Asset Allocation of Choice for Hong Kong's New Generation
Futu released the "2025 Hong Kong Individual Investor Survey Report", revealing that cryptocurrencies are gradually becoming the asset allocation of choice for the new generation, with 77% of X-generation cryptocurrency investors (born in 1980 or earlier) optimistic about the long-term appreciation potential of Bitcoin, while Z-generation (born 1997-2006) are more focused on the convenience and security of cryptocurrency investments and believe that holding "two Bitcoins" brings a greater sense of security than the "million-dollar down payment" housing demand, and their proportion of optimism for virtual assets is three times that of real estate.
The data also shows that the top five most popular trading sectors in 2024 will be AI technology, new energy, WSB hot concept stocks, cryptocurrency concept stocks, and healthcare and pharmaceuticals.
Industry Perspectives: The Industry Still Has 100x Growth Potential, BTC May Break $270,000
Industry insiders also have their own views on BTC holdings and price ceilings. Here are some representative opinions:
OKX Star Jokingly Says Those Without 5-10 BTC Shouldn't Call Themselves KOLs, Holding BTC Is the Basic Threshold for Industry Practitioners
Recently, at the "OKX New Year's Eve Dinner" event in Da Nang, OKX CEO Star said in a video speech that the inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds has surpassed that of gold ETFs, while Bitcoin's market cap is only one-tenth of gold's, indicating that the industry may have 100x growth potential in the future. Furthermore, when discussing BTC's return performance, he jokingly said: "Within an acceptable range, holding Bitcoin is the basic threshold for industry practitioners. If you don't have 5-10 BTC, it's best not to call yourself a KOL."
Coinbase Chief Legal Officer: Bitcoin May Become the Foundation of the Global Economy Like Gold
Coinbase Chief Legal Officer paulgrewal.eth wrote that Bitcoin may become the foundation of the global economy like gold, and will become the core of national security, as the amount of Bitcoin held can change the power balance between countries. Now is the time to establish a BTC strategic reserve.
Analyst: 180-Day MVRV Z-Score Indicates BTC Is Not Extremely Overbought, Potential for Significant Upside
Currently, Bitcoin is at a critical moment to break through its highs. If successful, analysts expect a large-scale rebound, quickly setting new historical highs. Investor sentiment is particularly optimistic, as historically, the year after the halving has brought the highest returns for BTC, making this stage crucial for long-term growth.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out that the BTC market is still in a growth phase, supported by the smoothed 180-day moving average MVRV Z-score. This indicator is often used to assess market conditions and indicates that Bitcoin's price has not reached an extremely overbought level, leaving room for a significant upside.
Analyst: BTC Has Broken Out of a Cup and Handle Pattern, Suggesting a Potential Upside Target of $276,400
According to analyst Ali Martinez report, BTC has broken out of a cup and handle pattern, suggesting a potential upside target of $276,400.
Previously, Ali posted that: Over the past 4 days, more than 20,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, worth over $2 billion.
It is clear that on-chain transaction activity is unprecedented.
Ali's insights
Glassnode: Bitcoin's recent correction is a cooling-off period, the bull market is far from over
Glassnode's recent report shows that Bitcoin's recent correction reflects a cooling-off period, but the relatively low investor stress levels indicate that the bull market is far from over.
The report points out that the number of BTC in an unrealized loss state is fluctuating between 2 million and 3.5 million, far below the 4 million seen during the mid-2024 bear market low, indicating that market conditions are not as bad. In contrast, the unrealized loss BTC recorded during previous bear markets was between 4 million and 8 million. The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio is an important indicator of unrealized market profits, and it is currently at 1.32, indicating that Bitcoin holders are on average 32% in profit. Although the market has retreated from its highs, this indicator suggests a generally optimistic market sentiment.
The report also points out that historical analysis shows that the MVRV peak declines with each successive market cycle, reflecting the increasing maturity of the Bitcoin market and the decreasing intensity of speculation. Currently, Bitcoin's trading price is above the 1-year average of $90,900 but below the bullish ceiling of $112,600, indicating that the market is still in a bullish phase.
Furthermore, the report notes that Bitcoin's market behavior has evolved over time, with decreased volatility, increased institutional participation, and new spot demand driven by ETFs leading to a more stable market structure. Although there is currently an adjustment, the indicators suggest that the Bitcoin market remains resilient and the overall outlook is optimistic.
Matrixport: The Fed's dovish stance and Trump's support are driving the market upward
Matrixport stated that last weekend, the launch of the TRUMP meme coin on centralized exchanges sparked a trading frenzy, with major platforms listing the coin at record speed. However, the subsequent launch of the MELANIA coin quickly reversed the market sentiment, causing a price crash that resulted in heavy losses for Sunday's buyers. This violent volatility drove a surge in overall trading volume, with the world's largest exchange Binance seeing its weekend trading volume soar from $15 billion to $50 billion.
"The surge in trading volume is traceable. The dovish stance of the Fed last week, coupled with President Trump's positive support for cryptocurrencies, has laid the foundation for further upward market volatility. Just as 2023 and 2024 will be momentous for the crypto industry, 2025 may continue or even exceed this exciting momentum."
Massive Liquidation: Over $2.5 Billion in Contracts Liquidated in the Past Week
It must be said that this new high breakthrough is closely related to the recent contract liquidations.
On January 15, Coinglass data showed that in the past 24 hours, the entire network had $184 million in liquidations, with 69,712 people being liquidated; of which $61.4 million were long liquidations and $123 million were short liquidations. BTC had $56.7 million in liquidations, and ETH had $36.3 million in liquidations.
On January 16, Coinglass data showed that in the past 24 hours, the entire network had $325 million in liquidations, with 110,468 people being liquidated; of which $107 million were long liquidations and $219 million were short liquidations. BTC had $73.2 million in liquidations, ETH had $66.6 million in liquidations, and XRP had $33.2 million in liquidations.
On January 18, Coinglass data showed that in the past 24 hours, the entire network had $285 million in liquidations, with 95,432 people being liquidated; of which $92.2 million were long liquidations and $193 million were short liquidations. BTC had $96.3 million in liquidations, and ETH had $36 million in liquidations.
On January 19, Coinglass data showed that in the past 24 hours, the entire network had $519 million in liquidations, with 199,513 people being liquidated; of which $381 million were long liquidations and $137 million were short liquidations. ETH had $71.3 million in liquidations, SOL had $65.7 million in liquidations, both exceeding BTC ($59 million); it is worth mentioning that TRUMP had $22.3 million in liquidations.
On January 20, that is, today, Coinglass data showed that in the past 24 hours, the entire network had $1.082 billion in liquidations, with 364,334 people being liquidated; of which $829 million were long liquidations and $254 million were short liquidations. ETH had $198 million in liquidations, BTC had $165 million in liquidations, and TRUMP had $130 million in liquidations.
Roughly calculated, the total contract liquidations in the past week have been at least $2.5 billion. This round of massive liquidation also once again warns high-risk preference investors that the market is entering a stage without historical reference, and caution should be exercised in leveraging up in the face of potentially high volatility ahead.
