Source: Talk Outside
The market has been quite volatile in the past two days, so the background messages have increased again. I've read a lot of messages and private messages, and have replied to some of them. Today's content is mainly some casual chats:
1. Learn to think from different perspectives
When the market fluctuates greatly in a short period of time and you are unsure or hesitant, the best thing to do is to do nothing and take a good rest.
You can also consider spending some time to continue reading some articles for learning, but reading articles also requires certain methods.
When a person holds or is bullish on a coin, he sometimes habitually finds various reasons for the coin to rise, and even promotes others to buy it. The opposite is also true. Therefore, when someone says in an article (or on a social platform) that a coin is worth buying or holding, you should think more about whether you really like or understand this coin.
For example, Big Dragon is always bullish on BTC and firmly holds it, and will often list some reasons why he is bullish on BTC's future upside potential. Then you feel that what Big Dragon says seems reasonable, so you buy BTC at the $100,000 level without thinking. But when you do this, have you considered in advance a few possible issues by changing your perspective:
- What is Big Dragon's BTC cost basis?
- How big is Big Dragon's risk appetite?
- How long is Big Dragon's investment plan and investment cycle?
- Does Big Dragon set take-profit/stop-loss?
- And so on...
Let me put it bluntly, as I've mentioned in previous articles: My BTC cost basis for this round of DCA is around $25,000, and my investment plan for hoarding BTC is long-term. That is to say, I never set any stop-loss for BTC, and I only sold 10% last December, and the remaining BTC, even if I don't sell them or don't complete the planned sales this year, it doesn't matter to me personally even if I hold them for another ten years.
However, my strategy may not be suitable for everyone. You can't just buy BTC at $100,000 because you think what I said seems reasonable, and then get angry when BTC drops to $90,000 in a few days, leaving you a message cursing me as a scammer and trash who made you lose money.
We are all adults, and adults should be responsible for their own decisions. If making money were really that easy, with just a few blog posts, there would probably be no poor people left on this earth.
In short, I have my own plans, strategies, and reviews. You should also have your own plans and strategies. Before making any decisions, you need to learn to think from different perspectives.
As I said in the previous article, everyone's position size and risk appetite are different, and the views and practices of others (including me) may not be suitable for you to directly adopt or copy. Whether you want to improve your knowledge, cognition, or increase your wealth accumulation, the basic approach is to extract the thinking, logic, and methods of others, and then see which ones can be combined with your own trading strategy, draw inferences from one another, and form your own set of methodologies.
2. Respect the destiny of others and let go of the desire to help
In the article a few days ago, I also mentioned a point of view: I still believe there will be an altcoin season, but this altcoin season may be completely different from the "all coins flying" altcoin season in history.
Then, a little cutie seemed to get angry after seeing this statement, and directly left a message saying: Fuck off, your point of view is the same as others, what the hell.
I don't know why this little cutie got so angry because of such a point of view. Could it be that they lost money in the market these two days?
Over the past few years, the content I've output through "Talk Outside" should have exceeded 2 million words cumulatively. If I have to extract the points of view, I guess the various points of view (whether correct or wrong) I've mentioned should have exceeded a thousand. And for the topic of altcoin season, I've shared this view many times in the series of articles last year (2024).
Also, who stipulates that people's views must be different? Just because I say "the weather is very nice today", does that mean others can't say the same opinion about the nice weather?
When the market is not good, some people's emotions and mentality will not be good, and I can understand this. I welcome any form of sincere evaluation, and you can even leave a message to refute my point of view, but if it's just rude (even with some dirty words cursing), I usually just block them directly. This way, we'll both be more at peace, because you'll waste time typing the message, and I'll waste time looking at the useless messages.
Actually, in the early days of writing articles, I didn't have the habit of blocking people, even though there were people who were rude back then. But I basically chose to ignore them, because I thought as long as I didn't pay attention to them, it would be fine. And as I mentioned in the article a few days ago, I would even occasionally ask them kindly if they had encountered any problems or difficulties.
But later, maybe it's because the number of followers has increased, I found that there seem to be more and more people with bad tempers. For example, some people would curse me again and again, so I had no choice but to start the blocking path. Anyway, as soon as I see rude or cursing messages, I just block them directly without hesitation. I just checked the background records, and the first time I blocked a little cutie was on December 13, 2023.
It's just as I said again in the article a few days ago, when I started to "respect the destiny of others and let go of the desire to help", I felt much more relaxed.
3. Most people must lose money before the market can usher in a new uptrend
We've always been saying that the short-term market is unpredictable, and all predictions (including "Talk Outside") are just a probabilistic "guess" based on data and other dimensions.
If I tell you that Bitcoin has a 90% chance of reaching $1 million in 20 years, this is meaningless to most people, because very few people will have the patience of 20 years. Therefore, most people prefer to hear short-term predictions, such as how high/low the Bitcoin price can reach tomorrow, or how high/low the Bitcoin price can reach next month...
Then you will follow many KOLs, watching their so-called analysis/predictions every day, hoping to find the wealth code and trading guidance. But each KOL is actually free to speak, and they won't be prosecuted for saying that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 tomorrow. So the internet will be flooded with all kinds of so-called predictions, and some people will even open two accounts to express bullish and bearish views, so that one of the results will be right.
But will the market listen to these KOLs?
No one can know the exact outcome in the future. What we need to do is actually very simple, just three basic steps:
- Reasonably design investment goals suitable for your own risk appetite
- Optimize your position size and trading strategy
- Strictly implement your own trading discipline and accumulate as much profit as possible (note that it is profit, not just unrealized gains)
In short, try to block out all kinds of noises and interference factors, only learn the strengths (thinking, logic, etc.) of others, and then plan your own path.
Followin' must be translated into 'Followin'. '助记词' must be translated into 'seed phrase'. 'Bull' must be translated into 'Bull'. 'Bull Trap' must be translated into 'Bull Trap'. 'TRON' must be translated into 'TRON'. 'BTC' must be translated into 'BTC'. 'ETH' must be translated into 'ETH'. 'HT' must be translated into 'HT'. 'AR' must be translated into 'AR'. 'ONT' must be translated into 'ONT'. 'RON' must be translated into 'RON'. 'ONG' must be translated into 'ONG'. 'OKX' must be translated into 'OKX'.In the face of interests (especially absolute interests), do not believe the so-called personal qualities of any bloggers/KOLs/enthusiastic netizens, but rather think about human nature, so that the probability of you being cut down as a leek or falling into a pig slaughtering trap will be reduced. Similarly, you don't know me, and I don't know you either, so you shouldn't fully believe my views either, as some of my views may also be wrong. Therefore, any information I provide is for reference only, please always maintain independent thinking, DYOR, and be cautious about potential risks.
The market is ruthless, it has no emotional color in itself, only people will be affected by emotional fluctuations. But it is precisely because of this that the market also has certain regularity, for example, I am still optimistic because I still believe that the cycle rule exists, and I also believe: when most people have to lose money, the market can usher in a new rise.
And if you don't believe in this rule, then choosing the time you personally think is appropriate to withdraw is the most suitable choice for you. Just like Zhang San has always been bullish on ETH, while Li Si has always been bearish on ETH, then it's simple, Zhang San stays, Li Si withdraws, and then they each pay for their own choices, they really don't need to argue too much about it.
Everyone has to learn to and adapt to pay for their own cognition, bet, and accept defeat.
For example, the classic chart below represents some of the regularities of the market cycle. So, do you think the current market situation is in which stage? Is it a Bear trap? Or a Bull trap? Or... what choice (bet) will you make based on your own judgment (guess)?
Finally, let's briefly remind you of the issue of wallet security.
Yesterday, a friend of mine said that his wallet seemed to have been stolen, and after inquiring about the situation, it was most likely because this friend clicked on a phishing link, randomly authorized it, and then the assets were stolen, which is basically impossible to get back.
Sometimes, it's more painful to lose money than to lose money.
So, we need to do at least two things for the wallet:
One is to improve our own security awareness. Don't click on those links of unknown origin to connect the wallet at any time. When participating in any project interaction/airdrop, you also need to carefully verify the corresponding address to avoid being phished. Periodically check the wallet's authorizations through security tools like Revoke Cash and OKX Approvals, and revoke those risky projects. Try not to take screenshots of the seed phrase and store it in the photo album, or directly store it in plain text in cloud storage like Baidu Netdisk.
The second is to do a hierarchical management of the wallet. That is, different wallets should be planned for different purposes, and the asset levels in different purpose wallets should also be different. How to use small-amount wallets and how to use large-amount wallets, these need to be planned.
Note: The original article was 4,200 words long, but considering some privacy issues, it was condensed to 3,200 words when published, and some content I didn't want to make public (about how to adjust emotions, and part of the sharing of my personal hierarchical notes) was only updated in the Notion version of the article.
