On the 4th, the US's 10% tariff on Chinese imports officially took effect, and China immediately announced countermeasures, planning to impose a 15% tariff on US coal and natural gas starting on the 10th, and a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, large-displacement vehicles and pickup trucks, as well as implementing export controls on rare earth minerals, further escalating the trade tensions between the world's two largest economies, and heightening market risk aversion.
Trump: No Hurry to Negotiate with China
In this regard, Trump said in an interview this morning that the US's trade balance plan with China is still progressing smoothly, and he is not overly concerned about China's retaliatory actions. Previously, he had mentioned that he would engage in dialogue with China within 24 hours, but it appears that the timing of his call with Xi Jinping has been postponed. Trump said today:
"I will talk to him at the right time, I'm in no hurry."
Gold Hits New High, Experts See $3,000
Amid the heightened uncertainty, investors have turned to safe-haven assets like gold, driving the precious metal to a new all-time high. Data from TradingView shows that spot gold prices have risen to $2,854 per ounce, with the uptrend seemingly unabated, while the April COMEX gold futures price settled at $2,875.80 per ounce.
According to a report by Reuters, Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, believes that in addition to the trade war, the weakening of the US dollar is also a key driver of the rise in gold prices. He said:
The impact of the tariff news has already taken effect, becoming a key factor currently driving market sentiment, even overshadowing other economic data released that day. Additionally, the weakening of the US dollar has further fueled the momentum of the gold price increase.
At the same time, Jim Wyckoff, an analyst at Kitco Metals, also emphasized that the current government's economic policies are exacerbating market uncertainty, and as central banks around the world may accelerate their accumulation of gold reserves to reduce their dependence on US dollar assets, the gold price could rise to $3,000 this year.
Bitcoin Risks Falling Below $96,000
However, against the backdrop of heightened market uncertainty, the strength of gold contrasts sharply with the volatility of BTC. Binance data shows that the BTC price, after reaching $100,700 around 3:30 am this morning, has retreated, and this morning around 6 am it risked falling below $96,000. As of the time of writing, BTC has rebounded to $97,700, down 3.42% in the past 24 hours.
Focus on Tonight's ADP Report, Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls
Looking back at past trends, there have been many instances historically where gold has hit new highs, and BTC has seen short-term pullbacks, indicating that the market's consensus on gold as a safe-haven asset is still higher than that of BTC. However, BTC's value proposition as "digital gold" still has long-term appeal, especially for younger generations and tech-savvy investors.
Financial experts say:
In the short term, gold remains the market's preferred safe-haven asset, but if market risk appetite rebounds, or investors re-evaluate BTC's safe-haven properties, its decentralized and highly liquid characteristics may once again attract capital attention.
As for what other volatility may be on the horizon, investors should closely monitor the ADP employment report to be released tonight, the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, as well as comments from several Federal Reserve officials, as these factors may further impact the price trends of gold and BTC.
