QCP: BTC price movements are more driven by macroeconomic factors

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MarsBit
02-17
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Here is the English translation: The news from Mars Finance reports that according to the daily report released by QCP, as the market continues to consolidate sideways, the market dominance of BTC has risen to about 60%, close to the highest level in nearly four years, while ETH and other Altcoins continue to perform poorly. The LIBRA "rug pull" scandal that occurred last weekend, involving Argentine President Milei, is not a good omen for similar projects or those expecting an Altcoin/MEME coin Season. As BTC stabilizes back to the middle of the range, the implied volatility continues to decline, which is not surprising as the 7-day realized volatility has decreased. In the absence of significant cryptocurrency-specific catalysts, the price trend seems to be more driven by macroeconomic factors, especially the stable correlation between BTC and the US stock market. Despite the macroeconomic uncertainties (tariffs, debt ceiling, inflation, etc.) and the unpredictability of Trump, the implied volatility of cryptocurrencies and the VIX are still trading at low levels. BTC is relatively unaffected by recent macroeconomic data, and the open interest (OI) has not recovered significantly since the end of January. This suggests that the cryptocurrency options market is waiting for specific policy changes in the OTC market, rather than just supportive rhetoric for cryptocurrencies. The current volatility level is similar to the Q2-Q3 period last year, when BTC encountered difficulties in breaking out of the multi-month range. In contrast, most of the capital flows are concentrated in short-term option selling or attempts to trade the range, rather than positioning for a significant breakout.

BTC
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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