QCP: If the spot market continues to remain sluggish, it may suppress institutional BTC demand

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ODAILY
02-25
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Odaily reported that QCP Capital posted on its official channel that Bitcoin finally fell below $90,000 within a month, and is currently hovering below that level, triggering over $200 million in liquidations in the past few hours. With Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico and restrict Chinese investment, market sentiment remains under pressure. As Bitcoin prices have fallen, short-term option hedging activity has increased, with the 1-month implied volatility now back above 50, while option skew has interestingly remained largely unchanged. Macro-wise, while data previously seen as causing broader market weakness has emerged, stocks, fixed income and gold markets have largely digested these impacts, while Bitcoin has remained range-bound. The rise in Bitcoin's market share and the decline in Altcoin prices indicate that Altcoin longs may already be full, and any new dollar inflows are only flowing into Bitcoin. We remain cautious. Recent Bitcoin demand has been primarily driven by institutions like Microstrategy and Metaplanet, which are raising funds through the issuance of stock-linked notes. Given that crypto-related issuances have accounted for about 19% of total issuance in the past 14 months, this financing market may be nearing saturation, and if the spot market remains sluggish, it could dampen institutional demand.

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