BTC fell below $90,000 again after 43 days, and the market sentiment has fallen into an unprecedented low. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen back into the fear zone and is very close to the extreme fear stage after half a year. There is a lack of real main line in the market. For Altcoins, although the rebounds of AI Agent are very strong and often double in price when BTC rebounds, the overall performance is still showing a gradual downward trend, and the performance is not good, with many AI Agent tokens experiencing "halving" or even "knee-slashing" since their listing on Binance.

As for BTC, there is no real positive news from the Trump administration. After the WLFI fund was exposed for colluding with the project party to market make, there is also no strong evidence to refute it. In the past two weeks, the WLFI fund has not made any purchases, and Eric Trump secretly offloaded after shilling ETH on social media. Regarding the BTC strategic reserve, state governments have repeatedly rejected it, and the federal government has been delaying it.

For other Altcoins, there is a continuous stream of negative news. The Web3 concept that once allowed MOODENG and PEPE to gain attention and attract Web2 liquidity is now allowing Web2 celebrities to issue their own tokens on Web3, draining the liquidity of Web3. The Libra shill incident also exposed the dark transactions between market makers and DEXs. The entire industry seems to have become a dark forest where project parties and celebrities are armed.

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has continued to fluctuate and decline, with a drop of nearly $1 trillion from the peak, a 25% decline. There are many voices on social media saying that the bull market is over and the entire industry has reached the end. Is the market really so pessimistic? Or is this just a mistaken sell-off caused by market sentiment, let's see the views of the traders.

Technical Analysis

@YSI_crypto

The reference cycle is 4H. The focus now is whether there will be a rebound rejection in the gray area shown in the chart. If so, "lower highs" will appear, and the breakdown yesterday has already produced a "lower low". This represents a confirmed downtrend, forming a downward channel. Shorting at high points in line with overbought indicators is a trend-following approach.

@CryptosLaowai

The current market is similar to the liquidity crisis caused by the interest rate hike in Japan last August, both being a real breakdown of the major support level after a false breakout of the supply line, which also fits the fifth wave theory. Currently, two possible scenarios are: 1) a rebound here to around $102k-$103k, then an adjustment directly breaking through the previous high to reach $120k; 2) a rebound here to $102k-$103k, then a decline to around $80k, completing the rising wedge pattern since August and then oscillating upwards, with the target being the upper side of the rising wedge.

In any case, this is a good position to buy the spot.

@Guilin_Chen_

The decline from $108,353 since December 17, 2024 should be seen as an adjustment to the uptrend from $58,946 to $108,353, rather than a trend reversal to a bear market. The adjustment has gone through three stages so far:

1. $108,353 to $89,257, 3 waves; 2. $89,257 to $109,588, 3 waves; 3. $109,588 to present, 5 waves. It is a relatively complex composite adjustment. Considering the depth and breadth of the adjustment so far, the possibility of a bottom being near has increased. The new resistance levels are around $90,000-$91,000, $94,500, $98,000, and $100,500. The bulls need to break through these levels one by one, which is a long and arduous task.

Macro Analysis

@zerohedge

BTC has finally caught up with global liquidity. This is good news, to some extent proving that this is a real bottom, and we are now in an upward trend.

@Phyrex_Ni

The market sentiment is indeed very poor, and there seem to be many possibilities, but in fact it is still investors' panic over Trump's tariffs, and behind the tariffs is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

So it is ultimately liquidity that is driving the market. In fact, the recent positive news has been quite good, and the US support for cryptocurrencies is evident. If this situation were in 2024, a new high for BTC should be no problem. Unfortunately, in 2025, investors' sentiment is more focused on monetary policy, with expectations of rate cuts and liquidity far exceeding expectations of policy.

It has always been said that the market is short of breath, and the breath it is short of is liquidity. Today, many investors are cursing Trump, thinking that Trump is not as good as Biden, although they say they support cryptocurrencies and AI, but in fact these two sectors have been bleeding heavily recently, and his tariff policy has not only increased the actual shopping pressure on the public, but also erected a higher wall for rate cuts.

Of course, there are also some friends who disagree. After all, in the long run, Trump's support for cryptocurrencies and AI is likely to make these two industries go further and better, although there may be some ups and downs in the short term. These are all based on the consideration of "America First". Especially the increase in tariffs, which is actually to reduce the tariffs of other countries on the United States, and can also increase fiscal revenue and alleviate fiscal deficits, especially with Musk's DOGE department, which has already started to bite the US government agencies, possibly clearing out more personnel to reduce fiscal pressure.

Whether it will continue to get worse, I think it still depends on monetary policy. Currently, everything is based on expectations of monetary policy. The core PCE data on Friday is an example. Although a rate hike in March is already inevitable, investors still hope to know whether the data that the Fed is most concerned about has risen or fallen. In fact, I still think the Q1 inflation data is within expectations, but when the tariffs are fully reflected in the data in Q2, that will be more difficult.

Looking at the BTC data, panic is inevitable, with the turnover rate reaching nearly 210,000 BTC throughout the day, but the main subjects of the panic are still short-term investors, especially those with costs above $95,000, who are showing signs of intensified panic, while investors with costs below $95,000 are actively buying. So far, there are no signs of panic among long-term investors.
On the support side, investors in the $93,000 to $98,000 range have not shown signs of large-scale reduction, and although panic has intensified, most investors have not sold. In particular, investors around $97,000 have not shown signs of a large decrease, and the BTC reduced between $93,000 and $98,000 in the last 24 hours is only around 16,000, which is not very dramatic.

@TJ_Research01

There are signs that Global Liquidity is stabilizing, with the Black Liquidity Index rebounding, and the chart shows that global liquidity is leading the BTC price trend by 6 weeks, while the US dollar index last peaked on January 13, which is nearly 1.5 months ago. The weakening of the US dollar index is favorable for asset prices. Combined with the current CNN Fear and Greed Index being in the Extreme Fear zone and the market participation indicator approaching Extreme Fear, these data support that now is the time to add positions.

Data Analysis

@CryptoPainter_X

The current BTC market trend has just reached the long-term bullish liquidity clearance area that has been going on for more than 3 months. And the $85,600 level is a very precise clearance, as I have been recording the positions of long-term futures liquidity since early February, and this position may not even be visible on other clearance maps due to the dense accumulation of liquidity. The two yellow clearance areas below are from records starting on November 15, 2024 and January 13, 2025, respectively, and it appears to be a "targeted explosion" of the leverage long positions in the futures market.

The chart above is the weekly chart of BTC, and the chart below is the weekly chart of the Altcoin market capitalization ratio. The Altcoin market does not have the strong supply that exists in the BTC market, but this does not mean that the Altcoin U-based market will not fall, as there may be a transfer of liquidity beginning to occur.

@MaoShu_CN

The market is in a general decline, with trading volume surging. Currently, the activity of funds in the US area is still not as strong as in the Asian session.
Compared to Monday's market data, the overall market has declined, with BTC leading the decline, ETH following, and a similar trend in market share, with BTC losing a significant portion of its share.
In terms of trading volume, overall activity has surged, with BTC trading volume increasing 3-fold, followed by ETH and then Altcoins. The market is still anchored by BTC trading activity, with activity spreading from BTC to ETH to Altcoins.
The on-chain retained funds have decreased by 1.5 billion, currently at 232.8 billion.
USDT: The official website data shows a market cap of 142.35 billion, a decrease of 0.62 billion compared to Monday, with the activity of Asian and European markets increasing, but the funds are still in a net outflow state.
USDC: The data website shows a decrease of 8.87 billion in market cap, with activity increasing 2.2-fold. Combined with the current situation, funds in the US area are also flowing out in large quantities.

The current market is in a relatively pessimistic state, with a decline in market capitalization and outflow of funds. The only optimistic aspect is that Altcoins have not experienced excessive declines, only a simple follow-up decline, which is the only optimistic factor at the moment, of course, also due to the previous excessive decline of Altcoins.

@biupa

Currently, the BTC negative premium on Coinbase has reached the highest level since January 20, which was the chaotic period when Trump took office; while Bitfinex has maintained a positive premium throughout this decline, with the positive premium reaching the level of the bottom in the December 27 to January 2 period (the first time since January). The previous negative premium on Coinbase was at the top, but this time it is at the bottom; the two times of positive premium on Bitfinex were both at the bottom; the bottom on December 27 to January 2 was also a negative premium on Coinbase and a positive premium on Bitfinex, and the current bottom (most likely already appeared) is close to the December 27 bottom.

Welcome to join the official BlockBeats community:

Telegram subscription group: https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram discussion group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Twitter official account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia