Next week's macro outlook: Non-farm payrolls, Powell, and Trump compete for the spotlight, and the Fed's bet on rate cuts increases
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Odaily Report: After the US inflation data met expectations on Friday, the US dollar held near its two-week high, and the dispute between Trump and Zelenskyy also boosted the dollar's safe-haven appeal. US Treasuries had their strongest start to the year since the COVID-19 crisis in early 2020, with the 10-year US Treasury yield now approaching 4.2% from nearly 4.8% in January, and the 2-year Treasury yield breaking below 4% for the first time in 4 months. US stocks have almost erased their 2025 gains, but rebounded sharply on Friday, narrowing their second consecutive weekly decline. The key events that the market will focus on in the coming week are: Monday 22:45, US February final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; Monday 23:00, US February ISM Manufacturing PMI, US January Construction Spending MoM; Tuesday 21:50, 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Mester speech; Wednesday 3:20, FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams speech at the Bloomberg Investment Forum; Wednesday 21:15, US February ADP Employment Change; Wednesday 22:45, US February final S&P Global Services PMI; Thursday 1:00, Fed releases Beige Book; Thursday 20:30, US February Challenger Job Cuts; Thursday 21:30, US Initial Jobless Claims to March 1; Friday 21:30, US February Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings YoY and MoM; Friday 23:45, FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Bowman participate in a panel discussion at the University of Chicago Booth School of America's Monetary Policy Forum. The US February nonfarm payrolls data will be released on Friday, which could be a key indicator influencing the direction of US interest rates. Economists estimate that the US economy added 133,000 jobs in February, lower than 143,000 in January; the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% MoM, lower than 0.5% in January. The January PCE report will be the last inflation data the Fed officials will receive before their next policy meeting on March 18-19. After three consecutive 100 basis point rate cuts by the end of 2024, the Fed is almost certain to keep rates steady for the second consecutive meeting this year.
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