Here is the English translation of the text, with the specified terms retained and not translated: The crypto industry may need to wait until 2026 to regain substantive forward momentum. In 2025, the Trump administration delivered a series of "gifts" to the cryptocurrency industry. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suspended enforcement actions and investigations against major cryptocurrency exchanges and companies (such as Coinbase, Gemini, Uniswap, OpenSea, ConsenSys, etc.). The White House issued an executive order aimed at enhancing the U.S. leadership position in the digital asset industry and expressed an interest in establishing a Bit reserve. However, these measures were not enough to prevent the recent decline in Bit prices and the overall negative sentiment in the crypto industry. As of the time of writing, the current Bit price is $84,000, down 18% since Donald Trump took office, down nearly 23% from the all-time high, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen 21%. Kavita Gupta, founder and general partner of Delta Blockchain Fund, said: "It feels like all the good news in the cryptocurrency space has happened, and the industry's positive progress seems to be just because of the whims of high-level politicians, lacking proper process and due diligence... the situation may change at any time, and sustainability is doubtful." Currently, the three main forces driving the market decline may cause it to fall further before it can regain its footing and start to rebound. In fact, the crypto industry may need to wait until 2026 to see a sustained bullish trend again. Internal "Backlash" There are many explanations for the recent decline, starting with the behavior of cryptocurrency participants themselves. For example, the industry has been in a precarious position due to multiple meme coin scandals, such as $MELANIA and the later $LIBRA, the latter of which even dragged Argentine President Javier Milei into a scandal. Now, the issuance and trading activity of meme coins across the entire industry is declining, raising doubts about their long-term sustainability. For example, the daily issuance of new tokens reached a local peak of 66,471 on January 24, just six days after the launch of $TRUMP. On February 27, the latest complete data day available, this number had dropped to 27,741, a 58% decline. GSR research chief Brian Rudick said of these data: "People used to think that meme coins were the fairest and most effective form of speculation in the cryptocurrency field, but $LIBRA showed that this was not the case. Now you see a sharp decline in on-chain trading volume, [although] meme coins are the first to be hit, but this is dragging down the entire cryptocurrency field." In addition, the $1.5 billion hack of Bybit by North Korean hackers (the largest cryptocurrency theft in history) has once again raised questions about the safety of investing in cryptocurrencies. Gupta pointed out: "These hacking incidents make the outside world feel that even after 10 years of development, this industry has not really matured." External Headwinds All these negative sentiments within the industry are being amplified by the broader decline in investor risk appetite. Typically, the start of a new administration would boost consumer confidence, and business leaders initially welcomed Trump's election because of his pro-business mindset. However, new data shows that consumer confidence is weakening, which may be due to Trump's threat to impose a 25% tariff on trade partners such as Canada, Mexico and the European Union. The consumer confidence index of the non-profit think tank The Conference Board fell for the third consecutive month in February, reaching the lowest level since August 2021. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey also showed a significant decline in consumer confidence. The report stated: "Consumer sentiment continued the downward trend that began earlier this month, down nearly 10% from January. This decline was widespread across age, income and wealth groups." The report also mentioned: "Expectations for inflation over the next year rose from 3.3% to 4.3%, the highest level since November 2023, and experienced an unusually large increase for the second consecutive month. The current reading is well above the 2.3%-3.0% range of the two pre-pandemic years." Rudick pointed out: "According to the latest data from the CME Fedwatch tool, the market expects two rate cuts this year. But if these expectations completely disappear due to the tariff issue, the decline in traditional markets could exceed that of cryptocurrencies." How low will Bit go? It is difficult to accurately predict how far Bit will fall from current levels. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said that even among commodities, Bit is unique. "You know the supply and demand dynamics of oil, coffee or cocoa. Bit has no comparable intrinsic demand. Its existence is purely for speculative or investment purposes." However, Sosnick pointed to a few technical charts that could provide some clues for investors to watch for price thresholds. One of the charts is the 200-day simple moving average of Bit. At the current price, the asset is approaching a test of this important indicator for the first time since it clearly broke through in mid-October last year. If this happens, meaning the asset falls below $80,000, Sosnick believes the next threshold will be the "$60,000 high/$70,000 low range". Although investor sentiment is negative, based on the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), the market has not yet reached a state of full-blown panic, with the VIX index still within the normal range of the past 12 months. Sosnick said: "The VIX has not reached extremely high levels, which means we may not have escaped the predicament yet, because when the VIX spikes, rallies tend to stop." For Bit, this means it may still fall further, as investors have not yet reached a state of extreme panic. For example, when the Bank of Japan raised rates and unwound yen carry trades in August, the VIX index spiked; currently the VIX is well below that level.

Waiting for the Wind: 2026?

Given all these negative forces affecting Bit's price, the crypto industry may need to wait until 2026 for Bit and the entire industry to regain substantive forward momentum. When asked what types of internal or external factors might play a role in this process, the answers are two-fold: a strategic Bit reserve or legislation that once and for all sets the rules for the industry. Although the crypto community has long hoped for a strategic Bit reserve, the White House executive order is aimed at evaluating something different: a federal reserve, where the government will choose to hold the Bit it acquires through enforcement actions, rather than a strategic reserve, where the government will purchase new Bit. (However, many states are evaluating their own strategic reserves, although few have made meaningful progress.) Rudick believes that something like a Bit reserve could be beneficial to the industry, but it is far from a guarantee: "[The reserve] has always seemed quite unlikely to me, but I do think Bit could easily go up to $500,000. Even if we don't get it in the form of a strategic Bit reserve, I do think the U.S. is likely to create a sovereign wealth fund and increase its Bit holdings." But for Rudick, a more sustainable path to growth is the enactment of market structure legislation that would allow regulated companies to legally enter the space, though he believes the industry will have to wait until next year to see meaningful progress: "[The legislation] is likely to happen in 2026. But to me, the reason this is so important is that this is what's needed for institutional-scale entry." As evidence, he cited recent comments by Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, who said that if the industry's rules became clearer, his bank, which has a reserved attitude toward cryptocurrencies, would consider launching a stablecoin. (At least one source close to the Washington negotiations believes that stablecoin legislation could even be signed as early as 2025.) But until then, the industry needs to remain stable to weather these adverse factors. After all, this violent fluctuation in investor sentiment is part of the huge risk of investing in cryptocurrencies.

Sosnick summarized the current market situation in one sentence: "The market usually rises like climbing stairs, and falls like taking the elevator. Bit has taken the elevator to the top floor this time, and now it has taken the elevator down to the basement. This is a highly volatile asset. If the volatility is in your favor, of course it's great - this is something everyone is happy to accept and enjoy. But when the volatility goes in the opposite direction, that's terrible."