Summary: Tong Deng, Jinse Finance
Just as almost everyone doubted whether the Altcoin bull market had already ended, two tweets posted by Trump on March 2nd reversed the downward trend of the crypto market, and crypto assets collectively surged upwards.
Trump's Two Tweets Ignite the Market
On March 2nd, Trump posted on social media that after years of suppression by the Biden administration, the US crypto currency reserves will enhance the status of this critical industry, which is why my digital asset executive order directs the presidential working group to advance a crypto currency strategy reserve including XRP, SOL and ADA. I will ensure that the US becomes the world's crypto currency capital. We are making America great again!
Subsequently, Trump released another message: Clearly, BTC and ETH as well as other valuable Altcoins will also be the core of the reserves, and I also like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Affected by the positive news, BTC reached a high of over $94,000, closing at $94,901.96, up 20.22% from the low of $78,940.44 on February 28th.
The performance of Altcoin assets is generally positive, especially the few Altcoins mentioned by Trump, which even recorded double-digit gains. As of the time of writing, ETH is trading at $2,469.63, up 11.5%; XRP is at $2.87, up 31.3%; SOL is at $174.19, up 20.4%.
According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a Solana ETF being approved by 2025 is 85%, and the probability of a Solana ETF being approved before July 31st has increased from 19% to 34%. The probability of Trump establishing a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office has risen to 17%.
After being selected as one of the top five targets for Trump's Altcoin strategic reserve, the market capitalization of Ripple (XRP) has surpassed Tether and regained its position as the third largest Altcoin globally, with its market value briefly exceeding $170 billion this morning.
Is it a Real Altcoin Strategic Reserve or a Pump and Dump?
Trump's message has sparked a lot of discussion in the industry, with both supportive and skeptical voices.
A Real Altcoin Strategic Reserve?
David Sacks, White House AI and Crypto Czar posted on X that "President Trump has announced the establishment of a strategic Altcoin reserve consisting of Bitcoin and other top Altcoins. This is consistent with his Executive Order #14178 issued a week ago. President Trump is fulfilling his promise to make the US the 'Altcoin capital of the world'. More details will be revealed at the summit."
Brian Armstrong, Co-founder and CEO of Coinbase, commented on social media that in terms of asset allocation for the strategic reserve, Bitcoin may be the best choice, as the successor to gold, Bitcoin has the simplest and clearest narrative. If people want more variety, a market cap-weighted Altcoin index can be used to maintain fairness. But just choosing Bitcoin may be the simplest option.
Michael Saylor, Founder of MicroStrategy, stated: Bitcoin is the foundation of the Altcoin economy.
CZ, Founder of Binance, said that the market is currently clearly dominated by "US Altcoins" and acknowledged the progress in driving industry development. He emphasized that the adoption of any Altcoin is a positive signal, and the industry as a whole benefits, and stated that Binance will continue to build.
CZ also pointed out: Trump said "BTC, ETH and other valuable Altcoins will be included in the Altcoin strategic reserve", but now all holders' attention is focused on "other", he thinks there's no need to over-analyze, and more "valuable Altcoins" may be added over time, and more countries may follow suit.
Ki Young Ju, Founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, posted on X platform that the current Bitcoin rally is driven by whales on the Altcoin exchange Coinbase. He used the Bitcoin Coinbase premium index chart to support his comment, which tracks the price difference between BTC prices on Coinbase and Binance.
Tomasz K. Stańczak, Co-Executive Director of Ethereum, wrote that with the announcement of the reserve fund, there is currently a brief window of opportunity for all developers building large-scale decentralized finance solutions, institutional custody solutions, institutional staking, stablecoins and institutional wallets to showcase the maturity, security and widespread integration of the Ethereum ecosystem in global finance. Stańczak said he could not guarantee that the Ethereum Foundation could deliver results fast enough, nor was he sure if Etherealize was fully operational to execute this within hours, so he encouraged developers not to wait and act immediately. He said the Ethereum Foundation will seek to improve the solution, but emphasized that Ethereum is a collective of excellent developers who can handle highly institutionalized investments.
Pierre Rochard, Vice President of Riot Platforms, tweeted that "when all countries have large Bitcoin positions and a small basket of their own domestic Altcoins, the new default world reserve currency is Bitcoin. Few understand this."
Pump and Dump?
While many were cheering, some also expressed doubts about Trump's policy driving the crypto market surge.
Just before Trump posted the two messages, some traders used 50x leverage to long Bitcoin and Ethereum, using about $4 million in capital to build a position of around $200 million. At the time, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum were $85,000 and $2,210 respectively. Subsequently, Trump released the positive news, and the 50x long addresses were orderly closed out. For details, please click 《Trump Stands Up for Altcoins Again, Bitcoin Surges, Suspected Pump and Dump》. Therefore, some industry insiders believe that there may be signs of a pump and dump scheme in this round of price surge.
OP_CAT advocate and TaprootWizards co-founder Udi Wertheimer said that so far, the best view I've seen on the strategic reserve is that this is just Trump's classic negotiation tactic. To truly achieve the reserve, Trump must convince Congress, he cannot decide on his own. Whenever Trump needs to convince other stakeholders, he always starts with an absurd proposal, then he can later withdraw: "Trump-Gaza", the annexation of Canada, and now the "Cardano strategic reserve". So in Trump's international chess language, this just means he's telling Congress that if you don't give me a Bitcoin reserve, I'll shove Ripple down your throats. Is this really happening? I don't know, but it's a compelling theory. But honestly, whatever happens, I'll be happy. It's so interesting.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes commented on the event of "Trump announces he will advance a crypto currency strategic reserve", saying, "Nothing new, just talk. Tell me when they get Congressional approval to borrow or raise the price of gold. Without that, they have no money to buy Bit and Altcoins. Of course, I'm not bearish, I'm still bullish. But I won't buy more tokens at this level."
Some analysts also believe that Bit may fall again in the short term. They expect Bit to drop to around $70,000 before starting the next bull market. As Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev believes, Bit may "establish a solid support in the range of $72,000 to $80,000".
Appendix:
A review of Trump's crypto currency policies and classic quotes.
March 2, 2025: Directed the Presidential Working Group to advance a crypto currency strategic reserve including XRP, SOL and ADA;
March 2, 2025: BTC and ETH will also become the core of the crypto reserve;
February 20, 2025: Hopes to be at the forefront of everything, including crypto currencies. Has ended the Biden administration's war on Bit and crypto currencies;
February 19, 2025: Signed an executive order to strengthen constraints on independent federal regulators like the SEC;
February 13, 2025: Chose crypto-friendly person, former Bitfury executive Jonathan Gould, to lead the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency;
February 12, 2025: Appointed the list of permanent CFTC heads, with the a16z crypto policy chief at the top;
January 27, 2025: 100% supports the crypto currency industry and will take Bit to a new high;
January 24, 2025: Established a crypto currency working group to explore creating a national digital asset reserve;
January 21, 2025: Sworn in as the first "crypto president" in US history;
January 18, 2025: Launched his personal MEME coin TRUMP;
January 16, 2025: Will use crypto currencies to do some "great things";
January 7, 2025: The US Congress officially certified Trump's election as president, with Pence elected as the next vice president;
December 15, 2024: Will use crypto currencies to do some "great things" and become an industry leader;
December 12, 2024: Will do some great things in crypto currencies and artificial intelligence;
December 5, 2024: Posted to celebrate Bit breaking $100,000; Trump chose Paul Atkins as the new SEC chairman;
November 21, 2024: Trump's team is considering creating the first-ever crypto currency-related position in the White House;
November 6, 2024: Trump elected as the 47th President of the United States;
July 2024: Trump attended a Bit conference, proposing to ensure the US becomes the crypto capital of the earth and the world's Bit superpower.
