4E Observation: The tariff stick exceeded expectations and shattered the fantasy, and the market plummeted again
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The crypto market experienced a broad-based crash again on March 4th. plunged from a high of $95,000 to below $83,000, a 24-hour drop of 10.49%. The market was also in a bloodbath, with falling below $2,100, a 24-hour drop of 16.83%, reaching a new recent low. After a brief bullish run, the market experienced a severe sell-off, with both bulls and bears suffering heavy losses.
<"Multi-Coin Reserve" Tests the Seriousness of BTC's Strategic Reserve>
The previous day, against the backdrop of a generally depressed market, former President Trump issued a major statement, announcing that , , , , , and other cryptocurrencies would be included in the US strategic reserve, and promised to promote regulatory easing. Upon the news release, the price of Bitcoin surged from $85,000 to $95,000 in just 3 hours, and also entered a full-blown bull run.
However, after the initial excitement, doubts arose. Bearish representative Arthur Hayes directly stated that Trump was just talking, and the government had no money to buy the coins. More widespread criticism focused on the "multi-coin reserve" concept, questioning the absurdity of including highly centralized projects like and as reserve assets, which would only undermine the seriousness of BTC's strategic reserve and further reduce the possibility of the BTC reserve bill being passed at the federal level.
Some analysts believe that Trump is playing the "high open, low close" routine: first proposing the radical "multi-coin reserve" concept, and then retreating to the "single-coin BTC reserve" as a compromise solution to gain Congressional support.
Regardless of the truth, it exposes the growing divisions in the current market. The gap between expectations for Trump's policies and the reality has led investors to remain pessimistic about the industry, causing Bitcoin to surge and then fall back, followed by volatile trading.
The Trump administration's recent tariff policies targeting Canada and Mexico have been a focus of market attention. Just last week, Trump was vague and contradictory about the timing of the tariffs, and the outside world believed it was a negotiating tactic, and that a new agreement would ultimately be reached at the last minute. However, this hope has now been shattered.
On Monday, Trump announced that tariffs would be imposed on Mexico and Canada starting March 4th, and explicitly stated that there was "no room for negotiation." Furthermore, tariffs on Chinese goods will be raised to 20%, and "reciprocal tariffs" will be imposed on the EU, Japan, and South Korea from April 2nd. This tough stance exceeded market expectations. Canada and China announced a series of countermeasures on the same day, and Mexico also hinted at taking countermeasures, fully igniting the tariff war.
The three countries of Canada, Mexico, and China account for 40% of the US's total imports and exports. The imposition of tariffs will drive up the prices of imported goods, undoubtedly exacerbating inflationary pressures in the US. Even the usually cautious Warren Buffett has rarely spoken out, warning that tariffs are "a kind of warfare to some extent" and may drive up inflation and harm consumer interests. Meanwhile, signs of slowing US economic growth are becoming increasingly evident, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model showing that US first-quarter GDP will contract by 2.8%, compared to a previous estimate of a 1.5% contraction. Market concerns about the US falling into "stagflation" are rising, which is putting pressure on assets that rely on liquidity and risk appetite.
The initial impact was seen on Monday, with the three major US stock indexes collectively closing lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.48%, the S&P 500 index falling 1.76% - the largest single-day drop of the year, and the Nasdaq falling 2.64%, erasing gains since the November election. Tech stocks led the decline, with Nvidia plunging 8.69% to its lowest close since September 2024. Since the approval of the spot ETF, the crypto market has become strongly correlated with the traditional market, and the turmoil in the traditional market has quickly transmitted to and amplified in the crypto market, leading to another sharp crypto sell-off. If the US stock market continues to weaken, the crypto market may face even greater adjustment pressure.
Amid the depressed market sentiment, investors are pinning their hopes on the first White House Crypto Summit scheduled for March 7th, where Trump will convene industry leaders to discuss regulatory policies, stablecoin regulation, and the potential role of Bitcoin in the US financial system, which may set the tone for cryptocurrency regulation over the next four years. The market is eager for more substantive outcomes from the meeting to boost market confidence and drive price increases.
However, against the backdrop of adverse macroeconomic conditions, the continuous outflow of institutional funds, and the exhaustion of retail buying momentum, the market's reaction to news has become increasingly extreme. The Crypto Summit may bring new policy sparks, but investors need to be wary that any positive news could become a catalyst for both bulls and bears.
For ordinary investors, maintaining financial flexibility and sufficient liquidity may be of greater long-term strategic value than blindly chasing rebounds. 4E, as the global partner of the Argentine national team and the only recommended trading platform, offers a USDT wealth management product with an annualized yield of up to 8%, allowing investors to earn returns without idle funds, while waiting flexibly for market changes.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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