Bitcoin continues to face headwinds as U.S. President Trump's first crypto summit at the White House on Saturday failed to meet the market's optimistic expectations that the U.S. government would spend more money to buy Bitcoin (the current executive order is to only use confiscated BTC as reserves).
Since Saturday, BTC has continued to fluctuate and fall from $89,000. In the early morning of today (10th), it even fell below $80,000, retracing to the $78,200 level at the end of February. At the time of writing, it rebounded to $81,788, a drop of more than 5% in the past 24 hours, and the crypto market sentiment has once again fallen into extreme fear .
Further reading: Bitcoin "fell below $80,000" this morning and the market fell into extreme fear again. What fluctuations should we pay attention to this week?
Arthur Hayes: If Bitcoin support fails to hold, it will test $75,000
Although the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit a potential bottoming indicator of extreme fear (20), it is still difficult to say whether BTC can start a rebound due to the high uncertainty in the overall economy.
In response to this, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes tweeted this morning that Bitcoin had a bad start this week and looks set to retest the $78,000 support level. Failure could lead to a further drop to $75,000.
He further stated that there is a large amount of open options trading in the $70,000-$75,000 range, and said that if Bitcoin enters this range, market volatility will increase. It seems to suggest that if the market enters this range, the price will fall further in a chain reaction.
Arthur Hayes has warned several times since last month that Bitcoin may plummet to a bottom of $70,000 to $75,000 in Q1 or early Q2, but a subsequent small financial crisis will force the Federal Reserve to restart the printing press and push BTC to a record high of $250,000 by the end of the year.
Further reading: Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin is expected to fall to $70,000, and hedge funds’ profit-taking is the trigger
Bitcoin strategic reserve failed to launch & ETF fund outflows indicate the coming of a "bear market"
Unlike Arthur Hayes, Jacob King, founder and analyst of crypto media WhaleWire, obviously holds a more pessimistic outlook on the future of Bitcoin. He made a shocking statement on the X platform last night: "The Bitcoin bear market has arrived" and "You can buy it back after it falls by more than 85%."
The Bitcoin bear market has arrived. The failed launch of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve suggests that there was never any intention to purchase any other crypto assets besides the seized BTC.
Meanwhile, the institutional demand narrative has collapsed, with ETF outflows at record highs. All narratives are shattered.
He further warned: "Bitcoin is heading for a multi-year bear market, falling to lows once thought impossible. If you have already invested, I strongly recommend that you sell all your shares immediately, and if you like, you can buy them back after a drop of more than 85%." When a netizen asked him if this meant that BTC would fall below $16,000, he replied affirmatively, "100% yes."
Analysis: There is a 95% chance that Bitcoin will not fall below $69,000
However, Timothy Peterson, an online economist famous for his price predictions, obviously disagrees that Bitcoin will fall into a bear market with a 85% drop. He tweeted on the 4th that the "minimum price prediction" indicator he developed in 2019 now sets the new bottom price of Bitcoin at US$69,000 .
Peterson said that "there is a 95% chance that Bitcoin will not fall below this level again", but when Bitcoin fell to $78,200 at the end of February, he pointed out that Bitcoin would have a "cooling-off period" of 2-3 months. Previously, in January, Peterson gave a price target of $1.5 million for Bitcoin in 10 years.
